Exploring the human-animal interface of Ebola virus disease outbreaks
Whereas the prevention and treatment of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been well studied after the 2013–16 outbreak in West Africa, the emergence of human outbreaks and their mechanisms have yet to be explored in detail. In particular, it has yet to be clarified whether the emergence records offer a...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
AIMS Press
2019-04-01
|
| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2019155?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1819158708173668352 |
|---|---|
| author | Luis Ponce Ryo Kinoshita Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_facet | Luis Ponce Ryo Kinoshita Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_sort | Luis Ponce |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Whereas the prevention and treatment of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been well studied after the 2013–16 outbreak in West Africa, the emergence of human outbreaks and their mechanisms have yet to be explored in detail. In particular, it has yet to be clarified whether the emergence records offer any theoretical insight into the changing interface between humans and animal reservoirs. Here we explore the epidemiological record of emergence, investigating predominant causes of the introduction to the human population, their characteristics, and frequencies. We retrieved data of every outbreak that can be traced back to a single zoonotic spillover. Through statistical analysis, we have shown that (ⅰ) the leading cause of emergence was eating and hunting habits, (ⅱ) primates act as the main source of zoonotic spillover, and (ⅲ) Zaire ebolavirus is the most virulent type. Moreover, the trend of emergence was demonstrated not to be a Poisson process, indicating that some unknown, underlying, non-random mechanisms are likely to govern the spillover event. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, an increasing emergence trend was favored compared with a purely random emergence model. Outbreak event data and their causative viruses should be explored biologically and epidemiologically to possibly predict future outbreak events. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T16:28:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cd4d5542a60d4df2bf821e1544ef0eed |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T16:28:57Z |
| publishDate | 2019-04-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-cd4d5542a60d4df2bf821e1544ef0eed2022-12-21T18:20:07ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182019-04-011643130314310.3934/mbe.2019155Exploring the human-animal interface of Ebola virus disease outbreaksLuis Ponce 0Ryo Kinoshita1Hiroshi Nishiura21. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA2. Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan2. Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, JapanWhereas the prevention and treatment of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been well studied after the 2013–16 outbreak in West Africa, the emergence of human outbreaks and their mechanisms have yet to be explored in detail. In particular, it has yet to be clarified whether the emergence records offer any theoretical insight into the changing interface between humans and animal reservoirs. Here we explore the epidemiological record of emergence, investigating predominant causes of the introduction to the human population, their characteristics, and frequencies. We retrieved data of every outbreak that can be traced back to a single zoonotic spillover. Through statistical analysis, we have shown that (ⅰ) the leading cause of emergence was eating and hunting habits, (ⅱ) primates act as the main source of zoonotic spillover, and (ⅲ) Zaire ebolavirus is the most virulent type. Moreover, the trend of emergence was demonstrated not to be a Poisson process, indicating that some unknown, underlying, non-random mechanisms are likely to govern the spillover event. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, an increasing emergence trend was favored compared with a purely random emergence model. Outbreak event data and their causative viruses should be explored biologically and epidemiologically to possibly predict future outbreak events.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2019155?viewType=HTMLfiloviridaeebola hemorrhagic feveremergencereservoirzoonosispoisson processoutbreakepidemic |
| spellingShingle | Luis Ponce Ryo Kinoshita Hiroshi Nishiura Exploring the human-animal interface of Ebola virus disease outbreaks Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering filoviridae ebola hemorrhagic fever emergence reservoir zoonosis poisson process outbreak epidemic |
| title | Exploring the human-animal interface of Ebola virus disease outbreaks |
| title_full | Exploring the human-animal interface of Ebola virus disease outbreaks |
| title_fullStr | Exploring the human-animal interface of Ebola virus disease outbreaks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the human-animal interface of Ebola virus disease outbreaks |
| title_short | Exploring the human-animal interface of Ebola virus disease outbreaks |
| title_sort | exploring the human animal interface of ebola virus disease outbreaks |
| topic | filoviridae ebola hemorrhagic fever emergence reservoir zoonosis poisson process outbreak epidemic |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2019155?viewType=HTML |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT luisponce exploringthehumananimalinterfaceofebolavirusdiseaseoutbreaks AT ryokinoshita exploringthehumananimalinterfaceofebolavirusdiseaseoutbreaks AT hiroshinishiura exploringthehumananimalinterfaceofebolavirusdiseaseoutbreaks |