| Summary: | Three experiments
(N = 550) examined the effect of an interval construction elicitation method
used in several expert elicitation studies on judgment accuracy. Participants
made judgments about topics that were either searchable or unsearchable online
using one of two order variations of the interval construction procedure. One
group of participants provided their best judgment (one step) prior to
constructing an interval (i.e., lower bound, upper bound, and a confidence
rating that the correct value fell in the range provided), whereas another
group of participants provided their best judgment last, after the three-step
confidence interval was constructed. The overall effect of this elicitation
method was not significant in 8 out of 9 univariate tests. Moreover, the
calibration of confidence intervals was not affected by elicitation order. The
findings warrant skepticism regarding the benefit of prior confidence interval
construction for improving judgment accuracy.
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