Estimating a mosquito repellent’s potential to reduce malaria in communities
Background & objectives: Probability models for assessing a mosquito repellent’s potential toreduce malaria transmission are not readily available to public health researchers. To provide ameans for estimating the epidemiological efficacy of mosquito repellents in communities, wedeveloped a simp...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications
2010-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Vector Borne Diseases |
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| Online Access: | http://www.mrcindia.org/journal/issues/474217.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811294271874007040 |
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| author | A.E. Kiszewski, S.T. Darling |
| author_facet | A.E. Kiszewski, S.T. Darling |
| author_sort | A.E. Kiszewski, S.T. Darling |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background & objectives: Probability models for assessing a mosquito repellent’s potential toreduce malaria transmission are not readily available to public health researchers. To provide ameans for estimating the epidemiological efficacy of mosquito repellents in communities, wedeveloped a simple mathematical model.Study design: A static probability model is presented to simulate malaria infection in a communityduring a single transmission season. The model includes five parameters—sporozoite rate, humaninfection rate, biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product-acceptance rate.Interventions: The model assumes that a certain percentage of the population uses a personalmosquito repellent over the course of a seven-month transmission season and that this repellentmaintains a constant rate of protective efficacy against the bites of malaria vectors.Main outcome measures: This model measures the probability of evading malaria infection underdiverse circumstances, e.g. vector biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product acceptance.Results & conclusion: Absolute protection using mosquito repellents alone requires high rates ofrepellent efficacy and product acceptance may vary. Using performance data from a highly effectiverepellent, the model estimates an 88.9% reduction of infections over a seven-month transmissionseason. A corresponding reduction in the incidence of super-infection in community members notcompletely evading infection can also be presumed. Thus, the model shows that mass distributionof a repellent with >98% efficacy and >98% product acceptance would suppress new malariainfections to levels lower than those achieved with insecticide treated nets (ITNs). A combinationof both interventions could create synergies that result in reductions of disease burden significantlygreater than with the use of ITNs alone. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:14:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cd5019864ced4e7caa3a278aeca4bd39 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0972-9062 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:14:05Z |
| publishDate | 2010-12-01 |
| publisher | Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Vector Borne Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-cd5019864ced4e7caa3a278aeca4bd392022-12-22T03:00:56ZengWolters Kluwer Medknow PublicationsJournal of Vector Borne Diseases0972-90622010-12-01474217221Estimating a mosquito repellent’s potential to reduce malaria in communitiesA.E. Kiszewski, S.T. DarlingBackground & objectives: Probability models for assessing a mosquito repellent’s potential toreduce malaria transmission are not readily available to public health researchers. To provide ameans for estimating the epidemiological efficacy of mosquito repellents in communities, wedeveloped a simple mathematical model.Study design: A static probability model is presented to simulate malaria infection in a communityduring a single transmission season. The model includes five parameters—sporozoite rate, humaninfection rate, biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product-acceptance rate.Interventions: The model assumes that a certain percentage of the population uses a personalmosquito repellent over the course of a seven-month transmission season and that this repellentmaintains a constant rate of protective efficacy against the bites of malaria vectors.Main outcome measures: This model measures the probability of evading malaria infection underdiverse circumstances, e.g. vector biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product acceptance.Results & conclusion: Absolute protection using mosquito repellents alone requires high rates ofrepellent efficacy and product acceptance may vary. Using performance data from a highly effectiverepellent, the model estimates an 88.9% reduction of infections over a seven-month transmissionseason. A corresponding reduction in the incidence of super-infection in community members notcompletely evading infection can also be presumed. Thus, the model shows that mass distributionof a repellent with >98% efficacy and >98% product acceptance would suppress new malariainfections to levels lower than those achieved with insecticide treated nets (ITNs). A combinationof both interventions could create synergies that result in reductions of disease burden significantlygreater than with the use of ITNs alone.http://www.mrcindia.org/journal/issues/474217.pdfMalaria preventionmathematical modelrepellent |
| spellingShingle | A.E. Kiszewski, S.T. Darling Estimating a mosquito repellent’s potential to reduce malaria in communities Journal of Vector Borne Diseases Malaria prevention mathematical model repellent |
| title | Estimating a mosquito repellent’s potential to reduce malaria in communities |
| title_full | Estimating a mosquito repellent’s potential to reduce malaria in communities |
| title_fullStr | Estimating a mosquito repellent’s potential to reduce malaria in communities |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating a mosquito repellent’s potential to reduce malaria in communities |
| title_short | Estimating a mosquito repellent’s potential to reduce malaria in communities |
| title_sort | estimating a mosquito repellent s potential to reduce malaria in communities |
| topic | Malaria prevention mathematical model repellent |
| url | http://www.mrcindia.org/journal/issues/474217.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aekiszewskistdarling estimatingamosquitorepellentspotentialtoreducemalariaincommunities |