Long-Term Recurrence Pattern and Stress Transfer along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Implications in Seismic Hazard Evaluation
An effort is exerted to investigate the recurrence pattern of large earthquakes (<i>M<sub>w</sub></i> ≥ 6.0) in the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece, by considering the incorporation of the 74-year (1948–2022) evolving stress field. Four earthquake occurrence mod...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Geosciences |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/13/10/295 |
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| author | Christos Kourouklas Eleftheria Papadimitriou Vasileios Karakostas |
| author_facet | Christos Kourouklas Eleftheria Papadimitriou Vasileios Karakostas |
| author_sort | Christos Kourouklas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | An effort is exerted to investigate the recurrence pattern of large earthquakes (<i>M<sub>w</sub></i> ≥ 6.0) in the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece, by considering the incorporation of the 74-year (1948–2022) evolving stress field. Four earthquake occurrence models—the Poisson, Poisson with the incorporation of the static stress changes (Poisson + Δ<i>CFF</i>), Brownian passage time (BPT) and Brownian passage time with the incorporation of the static stress changes (BPT + Δ<i>CFF</i>)—have been applied to estimate the occurrence probabilities of nearly characteristic earthquakes for the seven fault segments of the study area. The mean recurrence time, <i>T<sub>r</sub></i>, is estimated using the physics-based seismic moment rate conservation method. The results show large variability depending upon fault parameters. Incorporating the state of stress into <i>T<sub>r</sub></i> results in both advanced and delayed recurrence patterns. The occurrence probability estimates for the next 10, 20 and 30 years indicate that the fault segment most likely to be ruptured is the Paliki North fault segment in all models. Overall, the occurrence probabilities, combined with the state of stress along the fault segments, emphasize the high seismic moment rate of the study area. The application of time-dependent models (BPT, BPT + Δ<i>CFF</i>) resulted in significant increases or decreases in the associated seismic hazard. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T21:14:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cd8d1a9a5170422187954eab3c285bd2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3263 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T21:14:06Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-cd8d1a9a5170422187954eab3c285bd22023-11-19T16:36:15ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632023-09-01131029510.3390/geosciences13100295Long-Term Recurrence Pattern and Stress Transfer along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Implications in Seismic Hazard EvaluationChristos Kourouklas0Eleftheria Papadimitriou1Vasileios Karakostas2Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, GreeceGeophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, GreeceGeophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, GreeceAn effort is exerted to investigate the recurrence pattern of large earthquakes (<i>M<sub>w</sub></i> ≥ 6.0) in the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece, by considering the incorporation of the 74-year (1948–2022) evolving stress field. Four earthquake occurrence models—the Poisson, Poisson with the incorporation of the static stress changes (Poisson + Δ<i>CFF</i>), Brownian passage time (BPT) and Brownian passage time with the incorporation of the static stress changes (BPT + Δ<i>CFF</i>)—have been applied to estimate the occurrence probabilities of nearly characteristic earthquakes for the seven fault segments of the study area. The mean recurrence time, <i>T<sub>r</sub></i>, is estimated using the physics-based seismic moment rate conservation method. The results show large variability depending upon fault parameters. Incorporating the state of stress into <i>T<sub>r</sub></i> results in both advanced and delayed recurrence patterns. The occurrence probability estimates for the next 10, 20 and 30 years indicate that the fault segment most likely to be ruptured is the Paliki North fault segment in all models. Overall, the occurrence probabilities, combined with the state of stress along the fault segments, emphasize the high seismic moment rate of the study area. The application of time-dependent models (BPT, BPT + Δ<i>CFF</i>) resulted in significant increases or decreases in the associated seismic hazard.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/13/10/295large earthquake recurrence timestatic stress transferstress triggeringstatistical analysisKefalonia Transform Fault ZoneGreece |
| spellingShingle | Christos Kourouklas Eleftheria Papadimitriou Vasileios Karakostas Long-Term Recurrence Pattern and Stress Transfer along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Implications in Seismic Hazard Evaluation Geosciences large earthquake recurrence time static stress transfer stress triggering statistical analysis Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone Greece |
| title | Long-Term Recurrence Pattern and Stress Transfer along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Implications in Seismic Hazard Evaluation |
| title_full | Long-Term Recurrence Pattern and Stress Transfer along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Implications in Seismic Hazard Evaluation |
| title_fullStr | Long-Term Recurrence Pattern and Stress Transfer along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Implications in Seismic Hazard Evaluation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-Term Recurrence Pattern and Stress Transfer along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Implications in Seismic Hazard Evaluation |
| title_short | Long-Term Recurrence Pattern and Stress Transfer along the Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone (KTFZ), Greece: Implications in Seismic Hazard Evaluation |
| title_sort | long term recurrence pattern and stress transfer along the kefalonia transform fault zone ktfz greece implications in seismic hazard evaluation |
| topic | large earthquake recurrence time static stress transfer stress triggering statistical analysis Kefalonia Transform Fault Zone Greece |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/13/10/295 |
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