Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France)
Analysis of daily solar irradiation variability and predictability in space and time is important for energy resources planning, development, and management. The natural intermittency of solar irradiation is mainly triggered by atmospheric turbulent conditions, radiative transfer, optical properties...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2018-12-01
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| Series: | Entropy |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/20/12/946 |
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| author | Miloud Bessafi Dragutin T. Mihailović Slavica Malinović-Milićević Anja Mihailović Guillaume Jumaux François Bonnardot Yannick Fanchette Jean-Pierre Chabriat |
| author_facet | Miloud Bessafi Dragutin T. Mihailović Slavica Malinović-Milićević Anja Mihailović Guillaume Jumaux François Bonnardot Yannick Fanchette Jean-Pierre Chabriat |
| author_sort | Miloud Bessafi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Analysis of daily solar irradiation variability and predictability in space and time is important for energy resources planning, development, and management. The natural intermittency of solar irradiation is mainly triggered by atmospheric turbulent conditions, radiative transfer, optical properties of cloud and aerosol, moisture and atmospheric stability, orographic and thermal forcing, which introduce additional complexity into the phenomenological records. To address this question for daily solar irradiation data recorded during the period 2011⁻2015, at 32 stations measuring solar irradiance on La Reunion French tropical Indian Ocean Island, we use the tools of non-linear dynamics: the intermittency and chaos analysis, the largest Lyapunov exponent, Sample entropy, the Kolmogorov complexity and its derivatives (Kolmogorov complexity spectrum and its highest value), and spatial weighted Kolmogorov complexity combined with Hamming distance to assess complexity and corresponding predictability. Finally, we have clustered the Kolmogorov time (that quantifies the time span beyond which randomness significantly influences predictability) for daily cumulative solar irradiation for all stations. We show that under the record-breaking 2011⁻2012 La Nina event and preceding a very strong El-Nino 2015⁻2016 event, the predictability of daily incident solar energy over La Réunion is affected. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T02:19:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cd9e5739417847a79de1945a8349a738 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1099-4300 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T02:19:08Z |
| publishDate | 2018-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Entropy |
| spelling | doaj.art-cd9e5739417847a79de1945a8349a7382022-12-22T02:18:05ZengMDPI AGEntropy1099-43002018-12-01201294610.3390/e20120946e20120946Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France)Miloud Bessafi0Dragutin T. Mihailović1Slavica Malinović-Milićević2Anja Mihailović3Guillaume Jumaux4François Bonnardot5Yannick Fanchette6Jean-Pierre Chabriat7Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of La Réunion, Laboratoire d’Energétique, d’Electronique et Procédés, Sainte-Clotilde, 97715 La Réunion, FranceFaculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaACIMSI—Center for Meteorology and Environmental Modeling, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaACIMSI—Center for Meteorology and Environmental Modeling, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaDirection Interregionale, 50 Boulevard Chaudron, Sainte-Clotilde 97490, La ReunionDirection Interregionale, 50 Boulevard Chaudron, Sainte-Clotilde 97490, La ReunionFaculty of Sciences and Technology, University of La Réunion, Laboratoire d’Energétique, d’Electronique et Procédés, Sainte-Clotilde, 97715 La Réunion, FranceFaculty of Sciences and Technology, University of La Réunion, Laboratoire d’Energétique, d’Electronique et Procédés, Sainte-Clotilde, 97715 La Réunion, FranceAnalysis of daily solar irradiation variability and predictability in space and time is important for energy resources planning, development, and management. The natural intermittency of solar irradiation is mainly triggered by atmospheric turbulent conditions, radiative transfer, optical properties of cloud and aerosol, moisture and atmospheric stability, orographic and thermal forcing, which introduce additional complexity into the phenomenological records. To address this question for daily solar irradiation data recorded during the period 2011⁻2015, at 32 stations measuring solar irradiance on La Reunion French tropical Indian Ocean Island, we use the tools of non-linear dynamics: the intermittency and chaos analysis, the largest Lyapunov exponent, Sample entropy, the Kolmogorov complexity and its derivatives (Kolmogorov complexity spectrum and its highest value), and spatial weighted Kolmogorov complexity combined with Hamming distance to assess complexity and corresponding predictability. Finally, we have clustered the Kolmogorov time (that quantifies the time span beyond which randomness significantly influences predictability) for daily cumulative solar irradiation for all stations. We show that under the record-breaking 2011⁻2012 La Nina event and preceding a very strong El-Nino 2015⁻2016 event, the predictability of daily incident solar energy over La Réunion is affected.https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/20/12/946cumulative daily solar irradiationLa Réuniontropical islandcomplexity measuresentropychaosspatial weighted Kolmogorov complexityHamming distanceKolmogorov time predictability mapping |
| spellingShingle | Miloud Bessafi Dragutin T. Mihailović Slavica Malinović-Milićević Anja Mihailović Guillaume Jumaux François Bonnardot Yannick Fanchette Jean-Pierre Chabriat Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France) Entropy cumulative daily solar irradiation La Réunion tropical island complexity measures entropy chaos spatial weighted Kolmogorov complexity Hamming distance Kolmogorov time predictability mapping |
| title | Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France) |
| title_full | Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France) |
| title_fullStr | Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France) |
| title_short | Spatial and Temporal Non-Linear Dynamics Analysis and Predictability of Solar Radiation Time Series for La Reunion Island (France) |
| title_sort | spatial and temporal non linear dynamics analysis and predictability of solar radiation time series for la reunion island france |
| topic | cumulative daily solar irradiation La Réunion tropical island complexity measures entropy chaos spatial weighted Kolmogorov complexity Hamming distance Kolmogorov time predictability mapping |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/20/12/946 |
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