Prognosis prediction in esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma: a competing risk analysis
Abstract Objective This study aims to construct and validate a competing risk nomogram model to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma. Methods Patients diagnosed with esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma (ESRCC) bet...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-05-01
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| Series: | BMC Gastroenterology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-023-02818-z |
| _version_ | 1827939933456695296 |
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| author | Chen Chen Zehua Wang Yanru Qin |
| author_facet | Chen Chen Zehua Wang Yanru Qin |
| author_sort | Chen Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Objective This study aims to construct and validate a competing risk nomogram model to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma. Methods Patients diagnosed with esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma (ESRCC) between 2010 and 2015 were abstracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We performed the competing risk model to select significant variables to build a competing risk nomogram, which was used to estimate 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS probability. The C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, Brier score, and decision curve analysis were performed in the internal validation. Results A total of 564 patients with esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma fulfilled the eligibility criteria. The competing risk nomogram identified 4 prognostic variables, involving the gender, lung metastases, liver metastases, and receiving surgery. The C indexes of nomogram were 0.61, 0.75, and 0.70, respectively for 5-year, 3-year, and 1-year CSS prediction. The calibration plots displayed high consistency. The Brier scores and decision curve analysis respectively favored good prediction ability and clinical utility of the nomogram. Conclusions A competing risk nomogram for esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma was successfully constructed and internally validated. This model is expected to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS, and help oncologists and pathologists in clinical decision making and health care management for esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma patients. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:02:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cddec71fda6b4193adc7d531e4cc17c9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-230X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:02:02Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Gastroenterology |
| spelling | doaj.art-cddec71fda6b4193adc7d531e4cc17c92023-05-28T11:18:28ZengBMCBMC Gastroenterology1471-230X2023-05-0123111510.1186/s12876-023-02818-zPrognosis prediction in esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma: a competing risk analysisChen Chen0Zehua Wang1Yanru Qin2Department of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou UniversityDepartment of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou UniversityDepartment of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou UniversityAbstract Objective This study aims to construct and validate a competing risk nomogram model to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma. Methods Patients diagnosed with esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma (ESRCC) between 2010 and 2015 were abstracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We performed the competing risk model to select significant variables to build a competing risk nomogram, which was used to estimate 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS probability. The C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, Brier score, and decision curve analysis were performed in the internal validation. Results A total of 564 patients with esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma fulfilled the eligibility criteria. The competing risk nomogram identified 4 prognostic variables, involving the gender, lung metastases, liver metastases, and receiving surgery. The C indexes of nomogram were 0.61, 0.75, and 0.70, respectively for 5-year, 3-year, and 1-year CSS prediction. The calibration plots displayed high consistency. The Brier scores and decision curve analysis respectively favored good prediction ability and clinical utility of the nomogram. Conclusions A competing risk nomogram for esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma was successfully constructed and internally validated. This model is expected to predict 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year CSS, and help oncologists and pathologists in clinical decision making and health care management for esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma patients.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-023-02818-zEsophageal carcinomaSignet-ring-cellCompeting risk nomogramPrognosis predictionSEER |
| spellingShingle | Chen Chen Zehua Wang Yanru Qin Prognosis prediction in esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma: a competing risk analysis BMC Gastroenterology Esophageal carcinoma Signet-ring-cell Competing risk nomogram Prognosis prediction SEER |
| title | Prognosis prediction in esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma: a competing risk analysis |
| title_full | Prognosis prediction in esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma: a competing risk analysis |
| title_fullStr | Prognosis prediction in esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma: a competing risk analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prognosis prediction in esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma: a competing risk analysis |
| title_short | Prognosis prediction in esophageal signet-ring-cell carcinoma: a competing risk analysis |
| title_sort | prognosis prediction in esophageal signet ring cell carcinoma a competing risk analysis |
| topic | Esophageal carcinoma Signet-ring-cell Competing risk nomogram Prognosis prediction SEER |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-023-02818-z |
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