What impact do assumptions about missing data have on conclusions? A practical sensitivity analysis for a cancer survival registry
Abstract Background Within epidemiological and clinical research, missing data are a common issue and often over looked in publications. When the issue of missing observations is addressed it is usually assumed that the missing data are ‘missing at random’ (MAR). This assumption should be checked fo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2017-02-01
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| Series: | BMC Medical Research Methodology |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12874-017-0301-0 |
| _version_ | 1818907877166809088 |
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| author | M. Smuk J. R. Carpenter T. P. Morris |
| author_facet | M. Smuk J. R. Carpenter T. P. Morris |
| author_sort | M. Smuk |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Within epidemiological and clinical research, missing data are a common issue and often over looked in publications. When the issue of missing observations is addressed it is usually assumed that the missing data are ‘missing at random’ (MAR). This assumption should be checked for plausibility, however it is untestable, thus inferences should be assessed for robustness to departures from missing at random. Methods We highlight the method of pattern mixture sensitivity analysis after multiple imputation using colorectal cancer data as an example. We focus on the Dukes’ stage variable which has the highest proportion of missing observations. First, we find the probability of being in each Dukes’ stage given the MAR imputed dataset. We use these probabilities in a questionnaire to elicit prior beliefs from experts on what they believe the probability would be in the missing data. The questionnaire responses are then used in a Dirichlet draw to create a Bayesian ‘missing not at random’ (MNAR) prior to impute the missing observations. The model of interest is applied and inferences are compared to those from the MAR imputed data. Results The inferences were largely insensitive to departure from MAR. Inferences under MNAR suggested a smaller association between Dukes’ stage and death, though the association remained positive and with similarly low p values. Conclusions We conclude by discussing the positives and negatives of our method and highlight the importance of making people aware of the need to test the MAR assumption. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T22:02:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ce0e99cabc884f20ad170ad10a71dcaa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2288 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T22:02:06Z |
| publishDate | 2017-02-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Medical Research Methodology |
| spelling | doaj.art-ce0e99cabc884f20ad170ad10a71dcaa2022-12-21T20:04:07ZengBMCBMC Medical Research Methodology1471-22882017-02-011711710.1186/s12874-017-0301-0What impact do assumptions about missing data have on conclusions? A practical sensitivity analysis for a cancer survival registryM. Smuk0J. R. Carpenter1T. P. Morris2Centre for Psychiatry, Queen Mary University of London, Charterhouse SqaureMedical Statistics Department, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineMedical Statistics Department, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineAbstract Background Within epidemiological and clinical research, missing data are a common issue and often over looked in publications. When the issue of missing observations is addressed it is usually assumed that the missing data are ‘missing at random’ (MAR). This assumption should be checked for plausibility, however it is untestable, thus inferences should be assessed for robustness to departures from missing at random. Methods We highlight the method of pattern mixture sensitivity analysis after multiple imputation using colorectal cancer data as an example. We focus on the Dukes’ stage variable which has the highest proportion of missing observations. First, we find the probability of being in each Dukes’ stage given the MAR imputed dataset. We use these probabilities in a questionnaire to elicit prior beliefs from experts on what they believe the probability would be in the missing data. The questionnaire responses are then used in a Dirichlet draw to create a Bayesian ‘missing not at random’ (MNAR) prior to impute the missing observations. The model of interest is applied and inferences are compared to those from the MAR imputed data. Results The inferences were largely insensitive to departure from MAR. Inferences under MNAR suggested a smaller association between Dukes’ stage and death, though the association remained positive and with similarly low p values. Conclusions We conclude by discussing the positives and negatives of our method and highlight the importance of making people aware of the need to test the MAR assumption.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12874-017-0301-0Missing dataPattern-mixture modelSensitivity analysisElicitationMissing at randomMissing not at random |
| spellingShingle | M. Smuk J. R. Carpenter T. P. Morris What impact do assumptions about missing data have on conclusions? A practical sensitivity analysis for a cancer survival registry BMC Medical Research Methodology Missing data Pattern-mixture model Sensitivity analysis Elicitation Missing at random Missing not at random |
| title | What impact do assumptions about missing data have on conclusions? A practical sensitivity analysis for a cancer survival registry |
| title_full | What impact do assumptions about missing data have on conclusions? A practical sensitivity analysis for a cancer survival registry |
| title_fullStr | What impact do assumptions about missing data have on conclusions? A practical sensitivity analysis for a cancer survival registry |
| title_full_unstemmed | What impact do assumptions about missing data have on conclusions? A practical sensitivity analysis for a cancer survival registry |
| title_short | What impact do assumptions about missing data have on conclusions? A practical sensitivity analysis for a cancer survival registry |
| title_sort | what impact do assumptions about missing data have on conclusions a practical sensitivity analysis for a cancer survival registry |
| topic | Missing data Pattern-mixture model Sensitivity analysis Elicitation Missing at random Missing not at random |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12874-017-0301-0 |
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