Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical Approach
This is the first study to look at future temporal urban heath island (UHI) trends of Athens (Greece) under different UHI intensity regimes. Historical changes in the Athens UHI, spanning 1971–2016, were assessed by contrasting two air temperature records from stable meteorological stations in contr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/637 |
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| author | Tim van der Schriek Konstantinos V. Varotsos Christos Giannakopoulos Dimitra Founda |
| author_facet | Tim van der Schriek Konstantinos V. Varotsos Christos Giannakopoulos Dimitra Founda |
| author_sort | Tim van der Schriek |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This is the first study to look at future temporal urban heath island (UHI) trends of Athens (Greece) under different UHI intensity regimes. Historical changes in the Athens UHI, spanning 1971–2016, were assessed by contrasting two air temperature records from stable meteorological stations in contrasting urban and rural settings. Subsequently, we used a five-member regional climate model (RCM) sub-ensemble from EURO-CORDEX with a horizontal resolution of 0.11° (~12 × 12 km) to simulate air temperature data, spanning the period 1976–2100, for the two station sites. Three future emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were implanted in the simulations after 2005 covering the period 2006–2100. Two 20-year historical reference periods (1976–1995 and 1996–2015) were selected with contrasting UHI regimes; the second period had a stronger intensity. The daily maximum and minimum air temperature data (T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>min</sub>) for the two reference periods were perturbed to two future periods, 2046–2065 and 2076–2095, under the three RCPs, by applying the empirical quantile mapping (eqm) bias-adjusting method. This novel approach allows us to assess future temperature developments in Athens under two UHI intensity regimes that are mainly forced by differences in air pollution and heat input. We found that the future frequency of days with T<sub>max</sub> > 37 °C in Athens was only different from rural background values under the intense UHI regime. Thus, the impact of heatwaves on the urban environment of Athens is dependent on UHI intensity. There is a large increase in the future frequency of nights with T<sub>min</sub> > 26 °C in Athens under all UHI regimes and climate scenarios; these events remain comparatively rare at the rural site. This large urban amplification of the frequency of extremely hot nights is likely caused by air pollution. Consequently, local mitigation policies aimed at decreasing urban atmospheric pollution are expected to be highly effective in reducing urban temperatures and extreme heat events in Athens under future climate change scenarios. Such policies directly have multiple benefits, including reduced electricity (energy) needs, improved living quality and strong health advantages (heat- and pollution-related illness/deaths). |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:08:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ce0ef34801fe4de0834c24857a196038 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:08:35Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-ce0ef34801fe4de0834c24857a1960382023-11-20T04:00:13ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332020-06-0111663710.3390/atmos11060637Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical ApproachTim van der Schriek0Konstantinos V. Varotsos1Christos Giannakopoulos2Dimitra Founda3Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, P. Pendeli, GR15236 Athens, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, P. Pendeli, GR15236 Athens, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, P. Pendeli, GR15236 Athens, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, P. Pendeli, GR15236 Athens, GreeceThis is the first study to look at future temporal urban heath island (UHI) trends of Athens (Greece) under different UHI intensity regimes. Historical changes in the Athens UHI, spanning 1971–2016, were assessed by contrasting two air temperature records from stable meteorological stations in contrasting urban and rural settings. Subsequently, we used a five-member regional climate model (RCM) sub-ensemble from EURO-CORDEX with a horizontal resolution of 0.11° (~12 × 12 km) to simulate air temperature data, spanning the period 1976–2100, for the two station sites. Three future emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were implanted in the simulations after 2005 covering the period 2006–2100. Two 20-year historical reference periods (1976–1995 and 1996–2015) were selected with contrasting UHI regimes; the second period had a stronger intensity. The daily maximum and minimum air temperature data (T<sub>max</sub> and T<sub>min</sub>) for the two reference periods were perturbed to two future periods, 2046–2065 and 2076–2095, under the three RCPs, by applying the empirical quantile mapping (eqm) bias-adjusting method. This novel approach allows us to assess future temperature developments in Athens under two UHI intensity regimes that are mainly forced by differences in air pollution and heat input. We found that the future frequency of days with T<sub>max</sub> > 37 °C in Athens was only different from rural background values under the intense UHI regime. Thus, the impact of heatwaves on the urban environment of Athens is dependent on UHI intensity. There is a large increase in the future frequency of nights with T<sub>min</sub> > 26 °C in Athens under all UHI regimes and climate scenarios; these events remain comparatively rare at the rural site. This large urban amplification of the frequency of extremely hot nights is likely caused by air pollution. Consequently, local mitigation policies aimed at decreasing urban atmospheric pollution are expected to be highly effective in reducing urban temperatures and extreme heat events in Athens under future climate change scenarios. Such policies directly have multiple benefits, including reduced electricity (energy) needs, improved living quality and strong health advantages (heat- and pollution-related illness/deaths).https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/637climate changeurban heat islandAthensGreecetemperatureextremes |
| spellingShingle | Tim van der Schriek Konstantinos V. Varotsos Christos Giannakopoulos Dimitra Founda Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical Approach Atmosphere climate change urban heat island Athens Greece temperature extremes |
| title | Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical Approach |
| title_full | Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical Approach |
| title_fullStr | Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical Approach |
| title_short | Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical Approach |
| title_sort | projected future temporal trends of two different urban heat islands in athens greece under three climate change scenarios a statistical approach |
| topic | climate change urban heat island Athens Greece temperature extremes |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/637 |
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