Accurate determination of parameters relationship for photovoltaic power output by augmented dickey fuller test and engle granger method
Power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems in outdoor conditions is substantially influenced by climatic parameters such as solar irradiance and temperature. PV manufacturers always provide technical specifications in laboratory conditions but reliable relationship for the power output must be dete...
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| Format: | Article |
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AIMS Press
2018-01-01
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| Series: | AIMS Energy |
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| Online Access: | http://www.aimspress.com/energy/article/1780/fulltext.html |
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| author | Harry Ramenah Philippe Casin Moustapha Ba Michel Benne Camel Tanougast |
| author_facet | Harry Ramenah Philippe Casin Moustapha Ba Michel Benne Camel Tanougast |
| author_sort | Harry Ramenah |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems in outdoor conditions is substantially influenced by climatic parameters such as solar irradiance and temperature. PV manufacturers always provide technical specifications in laboratory conditions but reliable relationship for the power output must be determined for accurate prediction under real operating conditions. For the present study, solar irradiance G, temperature T and electrical power output P data under real conditions are methodically and regularly inscribed in dataloggers. Hence, in this paper, we investigate rigorous and robust statistical methods for small sample such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Engle Granger for stationary series to determine the estimate regression between variables P, G & T. A first regression of power output P time series variable on solar irradiance G time series has shown spurious results and thus spurious regression. The first differences of such time series are stationary and a regression is proposed whereas temperature variable is identified as not significant and where autocorrelation of residuals is suspected. Finally, the novelty of this paper is the Engle & Granger method that is used to provide a relationship between variables P and G in a difference level. A final relationship without suspicious heteroscedasticity has been determined. Our model is formulated on the basis of PV real conditions statistical approach and is more realistic than steady approach models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T06:17:14Z |
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| id | doaj.art-ce27537f11b340979326a4ed94b42827 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2333-8334 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T06:17:14Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
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| spelling | doaj.art-ce27537f11b340979326a4ed94b428272022-12-22T02:08:09ZengAIMS PressAIMS Energy2333-83342018-01-0161194810.3934/energy.2018.1.19energy-06-00019Accurate determination of parameters relationship for photovoltaic power output by augmented dickey fuller test and engle granger methodHarry Ramenah0Philippe Casin1Moustapha Ba2Michel Benne3Camel Tanougast4<sup>1</sup> LCOMS Laboratory, University of Lorraine, 7 Rue Marconi, 57070 Metz, France<sup>1</sup> LCOMS Laboratory, University of Lorraine, 7 Rue Marconi, 57070 Metz, France<sup>1</sup> LCOMS Laboratory, University of Lorraine, 7 Rue Marconi, 57070 Metz, France<sup>2</sup> LE2P Laboratory, University of Reunion, 40 Avenue René Cassin, 97400 Saint-Denis, France<sup>1</sup> LCOMS Laboratory, University of Lorraine, 7 Rue Marconi, 57070 Metz, FrancePower output from photovoltaic (PV) systems in outdoor conditions is substantially influenced by climatic parameters such as solar irradiance and temperature. PV manufacturers always provide technical specifications in laboratory conditions but reliable relationship for the power output must be determined for accurate prediction under real operating conditions. For the present study, solar irradiance G, temperature T and electrical power output P data under real conditions are methodically and regularly inscribed in dataloggers. Hence, in this paper, we investigate rigorous and robust statistical methods for small sample such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Engle Granger for stationary series to determine the estimate regression between variables P, G & T. A first regression of power output P time series variable on solar irradiance G time series has shown spurious results and thus spurious regression. The first differences of such time series are stationary and a regression is proposed whereas temperature variable is identified as not significant and where autocorrelation of residuals is suspected. Finally, the novelty of this paper is the Engle & Granger method that is used to provide a relationship between variables P and G in a difference level. A final relationship without suspicious heteroscedasticity has been determined. Our model is formulated on the basis of PV real conditions statistical approach and is more realistic than steady approach models.http://www.aimspress.com/energy/article/1780/fulltext.htmlphotovoltaicunit rootAugmented Dickey FullercorrelogramsEngle Granger testdifference seriesspurious regressionheteroscedasticity |
| spellingShingle | Harry Ramenah Philippe Casin Moustapha Ba Michel Benne Camel Tanougast Accurate determination of parameters relationship for photovoltaic power output by augmented dickey fuller test and engle granger method AIMS Energy photovoltaic unit root Augmented Dickey Fuller correlograms Engle Granger test difference series spurious regression heteroscedasticity |
| title | Accurate determination of parameters relationship for photovoltaic power output by augmented dickey fuller test and engle granger method |
| title_full | Accurate determination of parameters relationship for photovoltaic power output by augmented dickey fuller test and engle granger method |
| title_fullStr | Accurate determination of parameters relationship for photovoltaic power output by augmented dickey fuller test and engle granger method |
| title_full_unstemmed | Accurate determination of parameters relationship for photovoltaic power output by augmented dickey fuller test and engle granger method |
| title_short | Accurate determination of parameters relationship for photovoltaic power output by augmented dickey fuller test and engle granger method |
| title_sort | accurate determination of parameters relationship for photovoltaic power output by augmented dickey fuller test and engle granger method |
| topic | photovoltaic unit root Augmented Dickey Fuller correlograms Engle Granger test difference series spurious regression heteroscedasticity |
| url | http://www.aimspress.com/energy/article/1780/fulltext.html |
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