Mathematical Modeling of Glacier Melting in the Arctic with Regard to Climate Warming
The paper studies the initial boundary-edge problem for the non-stationary one-dimensional thermal conductivity equation, which models the temperature distribution in the glacier. The mathematical model has been constructed taking into account solid-liquid phase transitions. Data from meteorological...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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The Fund for Promotion of Internet media, IT education, human development «League Internet Media»
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Современные информационные технологии и IT-образование |
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| Online Access: | http://sitito.cs.msu.ru/index.php/SITITO/article/view/810 |
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| author | Anatoliy Fedotov Vladimir Kaniber Pavel Khrapov |
| author_facet | Anatoliy Fedotov Vladimir Kaniber Pavel Khrapov |
| author_sort | Anatoliy Fedotov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper studies the initial boundary-edge problem for the non-stationary one-dimensional thermal conductivity equation, which models the temperature distribution in the glacier. The mathematical model has been constructed taking into account solid-liquid phase transitions. Data from meteorological stations were used to determine the model parameters, with the help of which the necessary physical and thermophysical characteristics of the calculation area were obtained. The finite volume method was used for numerical solution of the problem. The non-stationary periodic regime was investigated, temperature-depth dependences were plotted for each month and the depth of the active layer and the depth of zero annul amplitudes for two glaciers: the Vavilov Ice Cap and the Austre Gronfjordbreen were found. Glacier temperature regime forecast for the year 2100 are modelled for three global warming scenarios: a moderate RCP2.6, the RCP7 corresponding to current emissions and the RCP1.9 adopted at the Paris Agreement in 2015. The scenarios are based on the IPCC AR5 and SSP databases, and on the existing policy framework and stated policy intentions The IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). The plotted graphs clearly show that even the moderate RCP2.6 scenario (2°C warming) can lead to noticeable glacier thawing, while the RCP7 scenario would lead to unprecedented consequences. In turn, a scenario limiting climate warming to 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels (RCP1.9) would markedly slow glacial thawing. Having analysed the irreversible degradation of the ice cover at a warming of an additional 0.5°C, and considering the adverse effects of this warming on many areas, the need to contain the rate of temperature increase is clear. The simulations have clearly confirmed the impact of global warming on our planet's cryosphere. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T00:08:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ce3d594000bd41eababeb2afb7d41a4d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2411-1473 |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T00:08:03Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | The Fund for Promotion of Internet media, IT education, human development «League Internet Media» |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Современные информационные технологии и IT-образование |
| spelling | doaj.art-ce3d594000bd41eababeb2afb7d41a4d2022-12-22T02:23:27ZrusThe Fund for Promotion of Internet media, IT education, human development «League Internet Media»Современные информационные технологии и IT-образование2411-14732021-12-011741007102110.25559/SITITO.17.202104.1007-1021Mathematical Modeling of Glacier Melting in the Arctic with Regard to Climate WarmingAnatoliy Fedotov0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3383-1188Vladimir Kaniber1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0846-6641Pavel Khrapov2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6269-0727Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, RussiaBauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, RussiaBauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, RussiaThe paper studies the initial boundary-edge problem for the non-stationary one-dimensional thermal conductivity equation, which models the temperature distribution in the glacier. The mathematical model has been constructed taking into account solid-liquid phase transitions. Data from meteorological stations were used to determine the model parameters, with the help of which the necessary physical and thermophysical characteristics of the calculation area were obtained. The finite volume method was used for numerical solution of the problem. The non-stationary periodic regime was investigated, temperature-depth dependences were plotted for each month and the depth of the active layer and the depth of zero annul amplitudes for two glaciers: the Vavilov Ice Cap and the Austre Gronfjordbreen were found. Glacier temperature regime forecast for the year 2100 are modelled for three global warming scenarios: a moderate RCP2.6, the RCP7 corresponding to current emissions and the RCP1.9 adopted at the Paris Agreement in 2015. The scenarios are based on the IPCC AR5 and SSP databases, and on the existing policy framework and stated policy intentions The IEA Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). The plotted graphs clearly show that even the moderate RCP2.6 scenario (2°C warming) can lead to noticeable glacier thawing, while the RCP7 scenario would lead to unprecedented consequences. In turn, a scenario limiting climate warming to 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels (RCP1.9) would markedly slow glacial thawing. Having analysed the irreversible degradation of the ice cover at a warming of an additional 0.5°C, and considering the adverse effects of this warming on many areas, the need to contain the rate of temperature increase is clear. The simulations have clearly confirmed the impact of global warming on our planet's cryosphere.http://sitito.cs.msu.ru/index.php/SITITO/article/view/810arcticiceglacierpoleglobal warmingablationmeltingthawingforecastpredictiontemperature regimenon-stationary periodic regimemodelingthaw depthactive layerdepth of zero annual amplitudesheat equationfinite volume method |
| spellingShingle | Anatoliy Fedotov Vladimir Kaniber Pavel Khrapov Mathematical Modeling of Glacier Melting in the Arctic with Regard to Climate Warming Современные информационные технологии и IT-образование arctic ice glacier pole global warming ablation melting thawing forecast prediction temperature regime non-stationary periodic regime modeling thaw depth active layer depth of zero annual amplitudes heat equation finite volume method |
| title | Mathematical Modeling of Glacier Melting in the Arctic with Regard to Climate Warming |
| title_full | Mathematical Modeling of Glacier Melting in the Arctic with Regard to Climate Warming |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical Modeling of Glacier Melting in the Arctic with Regard to Climate Warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical Modeling of Glacier Melting in the Arctic with Regard to Climate Warming |
| title_short | Mathematical Modeling of Glacier Melting in the Arctic with Regard to Climate Warming |
| title_sort | mathematical modeling of glacier melting in the arctic with regard to climate warming |
| topic | arctic ice glacier pole global warming ablation melting thawing forecast prediction temperature regime non-stationary periodic regime modeling thaw depth active layer depth of zero annual amplitudes heat equation finite volume method |
| url | http://sitito.cs.msu.ru/index.php/SITITO/article/view/810 |
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