Forecasting Milled Rice Production in Ghana Using Box-Jenkins Approach
The increasing demand for rice in Ghana has been a majorconcern to the government and other stakeholders. Recentconcerns by the coalition for African Rice Development (CARD)to double rice production within ten years in Sub-Saharancountries have triggered the to implement strategies to boostrice prod...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Islamic Azad University
2012-06-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.ijamad.com/2(2)/IJAMAD1-2(2).pdf |
| _version_ | 1811296155007451136 |
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| author | Nasiru Suleman Solomon Sarpong |
| author_facet | Nasiru Suleman Solomon Sarpong |
| author_sort | Nasiru Suleman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The increasing demand for rice in Ghana has been a majorconcern to the government and other stakeholders. Recentconcerns by the coalition for African Rice Development (CARD)to double rice production within ten years in Sub-Saharancountries have triggered the to implement strategies to boostrice production in the government. To fulfill this requirement,there is a need to monitor and forecast trends of rice productionin the country. This study employs the Box-Jenkins approach tomodel milled rice production using time series data from 1960to 2010. The analysis revealed that ARIMA (2, 1, 0) was thebest model for forecasting milled rice production. Although, aten years forecast with the model shows an increasing trend inproduction, the forecast value at 2015 (283.16 thousand metrictons) was not good enough to compare with the current productionof Nigeria (2700 thousand metric tons), the leading producer ofrice of rice in West Africa. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:45:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ce5724f8c5f24d4ca438c8dde4722fc7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2159-5852 2159-5860 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T05:45:09Z |
| publishDate | 2012-06-01 |
| publisher | Islamic Azad University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-ce5724f8c5f24d4ca438c8dde4722fc72022-12-22T02:59:59ZengIslamic Azad UniversityInternational Journal of Agricultural Management and Development2159-58522159-58602012-06-01227984Forecasting Milled Rice Production in Ghana Using Box-Jenkins ApproachNasiru SulemanSolomon SarpongThe increasing demand for rice in Ghana has been a majorconcern to the government and other stakeholders. Recentconcerns by the coalition for African Rice Development (CARD)to double rice production within ten years in Sub-Saharancountries have triggered the to implement strategies to boostrice production in the government. To fulfill this requirement,there is a need to monitor and forecast trends of rice productionin the country. This study employs the Box-Jenkins approach tomodel milled rice production using time series data from 1960to 2010. The analysis revealed that ARIMA (2, 1, 0) was thebest model for forecasting milled rice production. Although, aten years forecast with the model shows an increasing trend inproduction, the forecast value at 2015 (283.16 thousand metrictons) was not good enough to compare with the current productionof Nigeria (2700 thousand metric tons), the leading producer ofrice of rice in West Africa.http://www.ijamad.com/2(2)/IJAMAD1-2(2).pdfBox- JenkinsMilled riceProductionForecastingGhana |
| spellingShingle | Nasiru Suleman Solomon Sarpong Forecasting Milled Rice Production in Ghana Using Box-Jenkins Approach International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development Box- Jenkins Milled rice Production Forecasting Ghana |
| title | Forecasting Milled Rice Production in Ghana Using Box-Jenkins Approach |
| title_full | Forecasting Milled Rice Production in Ghana Using Box-Jenkins Approach |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Milled Rice Production in Ghana Using Box-Jenkins Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Milled Rice Production in Ghana Using Box-Jenkins Approach |
| title_short | Forecasting Milled Rice Production in Ghana Using Box-Jenkins Approach |
| title_sort | forecasting milled rice production in ghana using box jenkins approach |
| topic | Box- Jenkins Milled rice Production Forecasting Ghana |
| url | http://www.ijamad.com/2(2)/IJAMAD1-2(2).pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nasirusuleman forecastingmilledriceproductioninghanausingboxjenkinsapproach AT solomonsarpong forecastingmilledriceproductioninghanausingboxjenkinsapproach |