The Pantanal under Siege—On the Origin, Dynamics and Forecast of the Megadrought Severely Affecting the Largest Wetland in the World
The Pantanal is the largest wetland of the world and one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in South America. An unprecedented ongoing megadrought is severely affecting its ecological functioning, flood pulse dynamics, and fire regime. Regarding this problematic, the present study generates...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021-10-01
|
| Series: | Water |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3034 |
| _version_ | 1797511741024763904 |
|---|---|
| author | Dirk Thielen Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi Mary L. Puche Marco Márquez José Isrrael Quintero Wilmer Rojas Alejandra Soto-Werschitz Kai Thielen Ana Nunes Renata Libonati |
| author_facet | Dirk Thielen Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi Mary L. Puche Marco Márquez José Isrrael Quintero Wilmer Rojas Alejandra Soto-Werschitz Kai Thielen Ana Nunes Renata Libonati |
| author_sort | Dirk Thielen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Pantanal is the largest wetland of the world and one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in South America. An unprecedented ongoing megadrought is severely affecting its ecological functioning, flood pulse dynamics, and fire regime. Regarding this problematic, the present study generates reliable information about the following key issues: 1—Evolution and dynamics, 2—Origin and determinants, and 3—Forecast based on identified determinants and current trends. Results show that the evolution of the megadrought has been differentiable in both, space and time. As for its origin and determinants, Climate Change was ratified as one of the most important threats to the Pantanal, and to vast areas of South America, since a strong correlation was identified between megadrought’s dynamics and the occurrence of intense marine heatwaves at Northern Hemisphere oceanic waters, and more specifically, at the Northeast Pacific. Results also show that the megadrought is expected to continue at both the Pantanal and the surrounding Highlands, at least until December 2023. Thus, an intensification of fires risk, extending now to areas historically flooded or perhumid should be expected, concomitantly to a very negative impact on non-fire-resistant vegetation cover, as well as ecosystem functioning and biodiversity, perhaps even worse than those from 2020, widely covered by the international media. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:49:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ce5f088597c34ec4b61c81250650fcac |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:49:27Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-ce5f088597c34ec4b61c81250650fcac2023-11-22T21:54:19ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412021-10-011321303410.3390/w13213034The Pantanal under Siege—On the Origin, Dynamics and Forecast of the Megadrought Severely Affecting the Largest Wetland in the WorldDirk Thielen0Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi1Mary L. Puche2Marco Márquez3José Isrrael Quintero4Wilmer Rojas5Alejandra Soto-Werschitz6Kai Thielen7Ana Nunes8Renata Libonati9Laboratory of Landscape Ecology and Climate, Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research—IVIC, Caracas 1020-A, VenezuelaSimulation and Modelling Center (CeSiMo), University of Los Andes, Mérida 5101, VenezuelaLaboratory of Landscape Ecology and Climate, Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research—IVIC, Caracas 1020-A, VenezuelaLaboratory of Landscape Ecology and Climate, Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research—IVIC, Caracas 1020-A, VenezuelaLaboratory of Landscape Ecology and Climate, Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research—IVIC, Caracas 1020-A, VenezuelaLaboratory of Landscape Ecology and Climate, Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research—IVIC, Caracas 1020-A, VenezuelaDepartamento de Ecologia e Conservação, Instituto de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras 37200-900, MG, BrazilFaculty of the Environment and Natural Sciences, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, 03046 Cottbus, GermanyDepartamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 21941-916, MG, BrazilDepartamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 21941-916, MG, BrazilThe Pantanal is the largest wetland of the world and one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in South America. An unprecedented ongoing megadrought is severely affecting its ecological functioning, flood pulse dynamics, and fire regime. Regarding this problematic, the present study generates reliable information about the following key issues: 1—Evolution and dynamics, 2—Origin and determinants, and 3—Forecast based on identified determinants and current trends. Results show that the evolution of the megadrought has been differentiable in both, space and time. As for its origin and determinants, Climate Change was ratified as one of the most important threats to the Pantanal, and to vast areas of South America, since a strong correlation was identified between megadrought’s dynamics and the occurrence of intense marine heatwaves at Northern Hemisphere oceanic waters, and more specifically, at the Northeast Pacific. Results also show that the megadrought is expected to continue at both the Pantanal and the surrounding Highlands, at least until December 2023. Thus, an intensification of fires risk, extending now to areas historically flooded or perhumid should be expected, concomitantly to a very negative impact on non-fire-resistant vegetation cover, as well as ecosystem functioning and biodiversity, perhaps even worse than those from 2020, widely covered by the international media.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3034megadroughtprecipitationextreme climate eventPantanalwetlandBrazil |
| spellingShingle | Dirk Thielen Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi Mary L. Puche Marco Márquez José Isrrael Quintero Wilmer Rojas Alejandra Soto-Werschitz Kai Thielen Ana Nunes Renata Libonati The Pantanal under Siege—On the Origin, Dynamics and Forecast of the Megadrought Severely Affecting the Largest Wetland in the World Water megadrought precipitation extreme climate event Pantanal wetland Brazil |
| title | The Pantanal under Siege—On the Origin, Dynamics and Forecast of the Megadrought Severely Affecting the Largest Wetland in the World |
| title_full | The Pantanal under Siege—On the Origin, Dynamics and Forecast of the Megadrought Severely Affecting the Largest Wetland in the World |
| title_fullStr | The Pantanal under Siege—On the Origin, Dynamics and Forecast of the Megadrought Severely Affecting the Largest Wetland in the World |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Pantanal under Siege—On the Origin, Dynamics and Forecast of the Megadrought Severely Affecting the Largest Wetland in the World |
| title_short | The Pantanal under Siege—On the Origin, Dynamics and Forecast of the Megadrought Severely Affecting the Largest Wetland in the World |
| title_sort | pantanal under siege on the origin dynamics and forecast of the megadrought severely affecting the largest wetland in the world |
| topic | megadrought precipitation extreme climate event Pantanal wetland Brazil |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3034 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dirkthielen thepantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT paoloramoniperazzi thepantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT marylpuche thepantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT marcomarquez thepantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT joseisrraelquintero thepantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT wilmerrojas thepantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT alejandrasotowerschitz thepantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT kaithielen thepantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT ananunes thepantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT renatalibonati thepantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT dirkthielen pantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT paoloramoniperazzi pantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT marylpuche pantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT marcomarquez pantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT joseisrraelquintero pantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT wilmerrojas pantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT alejandrasotowerschitz pantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT kaithielen pantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT ananunes pantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld AT renatalibonati pantanalundersiegeontheorigindynamicsandforecastofthemegadroughtseverelyaffectingthelargestwetlandintheworld |