A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure
Abstract Aims Heart failure (HF) has shared genetic architecture with its risk factors: atrial fibrillation (AF), body mass index (BMI), coronary heart disease (CHD), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aim to assess the association and risk prediction performance of risk‐fa...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2024-04-01
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| Series: | ESC Heart Failure |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.14665 |
| _version_ | 1827307733744877568 |
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| author | Taryn Alkis Xi Luo Katherine Wall Jennifer Brody Traci Bartz Patricia P. Chang Faye L. Norby Ron C. Hoogeveen Alanna C. Morrison Christie M. Ballantyne Josef Coresh Eric Boerwinkle Bruce M. Psaty Amil M. Shah Bing Yu |
| author_facet | Taryn Alkis Xi Luo Katherine Wall Jennifer Brody Traci Bartz Patricia P. Chang Faye L. Norby Ron C. Hoogeveen Alanna C. Morrison Christie M. Ballantyne Josef Coresh Eric Boerwinkle Bruce M. Psaty Amil M. Shah Bing Yu |
| author_sort | Taryn Alkis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Aims Heart failure (HF) has shared genetic architecture with its risk factors: atrial fibrillation (AF), body mass index (BMI), coronary heart disease (CHD), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aim to assess the association and risk prediction performance of risk‐factor polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for incident HF and its subtypes in bi‐racial populations. Methods and results Five PRSs were constructed for AF, BMI, CHD, SBP, and T2D in White participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The associations between PRSs and incident HF and its subtypes were assessed using Cox models, and the risk prediction performance of PRSs was assessed using C statistics. Replication was performed in the ARIC study Black and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) White participants. In 8624 ARIC study Whites, 1922 (31% cumulative incidence) HF cases developed over 30 years of follow‐up. PRSs of AF, BMI, and CHD were associated with incident HF (P < 0.001), where PRSAF showed the strongest association [hazard ratio (HR): 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.41–1.53]. Only the addition of PRSAF to the ARIC study HF risk equation improved C statistics for 10 year risk prediction from 0.812 to 0.829 (∆C: 0.017, 95% CI: 0.009–0.026). The PRSAF was associated with both incident HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.27–1.60) and incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.33–1.62). The associations between PRSAF and incident HF and its subtypes, as well as the improved risk prediction, were replicated in the ARIC study Blacks and the CHS Whites (P < 0.050). Protein analyses revealed that N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide and other 98 proteins were associated with PRSAF. Conclusions The PRSAF was associated with incident HF and its subtypes and had significant incremental value over an established HF risk prediction equation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:45:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ce72f0daf1734ab3a5fbf90a46faf51e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2055-5822 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:45:43Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | ESC Heart Failure |
| spelling | doaj.art-ce72f0daf1734ab3a5fbf90a46faf51e2024-03-27T06:48:04ZengWileyESC Heart Failure2055-58222024-04-011121086109610.1002/ehf2.14665A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failureTaryn Alkis0Xi Luo1Katherine Wall2Jennifer Brody3Traci Bartz4Patricia P. Chang5Faye L. Norby6Ron C. Hoogeveen7Alanna C. Morrison8Christie M. Ballantyne9Josef Coresh10Eric Boerwinkle11Bruce M. Psaty12Amil M. Shah13Bing Yu14Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, School of Public Health University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston Houston TX USADepartment of Biostatistics and Data Science, School of Public Health University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston Houston TX USADepartment of Biostatistics and Data Science, School of Public Health University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston Houston TX USACardiovascular Health Research Unit University of Washington Seattle WA USACardiovascular Health Research Unit, Departments of Medicine and Biostatistics University of Washington Seattle WA USADivision of Cardiology University of North Carolina School of Medicine Chapel Hill NC USADivision of Epidemiology and Community Health University of Minnesota Minneapolis MN USADepartment of Medicine Baylor College of Medicine Houston TX USADepartment of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, School of Public Health University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston Houston TX USADepartment of Medicine Baylor College of Medicine Houston TX USADepartment of Epidemiology Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore MD USADepartment of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, School of Public Health University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston Houston TX USACardiovascular Health Research Unit University of Washington Seattle WA USADepartment of Internal Medicine UT Southwestern Medical Center Dallas TX USADepartment of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, School of Public Health University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston Houston TX USAAbstract Aims Heart failure (HF) has shared genetic architecture with its risk factors: atrial fibrillation (AF), body mass index (BMI), coronary heart disease (CHD), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aim to assess the association and risk prediction performance of risk‐factor polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for incident HF and its subtypes in bi‐racial populations. Methods and results Five PRSs were constructed for AF, BMI, CHD, SBP, and T2D in White participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The associations between PRSs and incident HF and its subtypes were assessed using Cox models, and the risk prediction performance of PRSs was assessed using C statistics. Replication was performed in the ARIC study Black and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) White participants. In 8624 ARIC study Whites, 1922 (31% cumulative incidence) HF cases developed over 30 years of follow‐up. PRSs of AF, BMI, and CHD were associated with incident HF (P < 0.001), where PRSAF showed the strongest association [hazard ratio (HR): 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.41–1.53]. Only the addition of PRSAF to the ARIC study HF risk equation improved C statistics for 10 year risk prediction from 0.812 to 0.829 (∆C: 0.017, 95% CI: 0.009–0.026). The PRSAF was associated with both incident HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.27–1.60) and incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.33–1.62). The associations between PRSAF and incident HF and its subtypes, as well as the improved risk prediction, were replicated in the ARIC study Blacks and the CHS Whites (P < 0.050). Protein analyses revealed that N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide and other 98 proteins were associated with PRSAF. Conclusions The PRSAF was associated with incident HF and its subtypes and had significant incremental value over an established HF risk prediction equation.https://doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.14665Polygenic risk scoreHeart failureRisk predictionCohort |
| spellingShingle | Taryn Alkis Xi Luo Katherine Wall Jennifer Brody Traci Bartz Patricia P. Chang Faye L. Norby Ron C. Hoogeveen Alanna C. Morrison Christie M. Ballantyne Josef Coresh Eric Boerwinkle Bruce M. Psaty Amil M. Shah Bing Yu A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure ESC Heart Failure Polygenic risk score Heart failure Risk prediction Cohort |
| title | A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure |
| title_full | A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure |
| title_fullStr | A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure |
| title_full_unstemmed | A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure |
| title_short | A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure |
| title_sort | polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure |
| topic | Polygenic risk score Heart failure Risk prediction Cohort |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.14665 |
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