Predicting the Distributions of <i>Morus notabilis</i> C. K. Schneid under Climate Change in China
As one of the common mulberry tree species, <i>Morus notabilis</i> C. K. Schneid plays a significant role in various industries such as silkworm rearing, papermaking, and medicine due to its valuable mulberry leaves, fruits, and wood. This study utilizes the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) mode...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2024-02-01
|
| Series: | Forests |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/15/2/352 |
| _version_ | 1797298211200696320 |
|---|---|
| author | Hui Gao Qianqian Qian Xinqi Deng Yaqin Peng Danping Xu |
| author_facet | Hui Gao Qianqian Qian Xinqi Deng Yaqin Peng Danping Xu |
| author_sort | Hui Gao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As one of the common mulberry tree species, <i>Morus notabilis</i> C. K. Schneid plays a significant role in various industries such as silkworm rearing, papermaking, and medicine due to its valuable mulberry leaves, fruits, and wood. This study utilizes the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential distribution of <i>M. notabilis</i> in China under future environmental changes. By integrating the relative percentage contribution score of environmental factors with jackknife test analysis, important variables influencing the distribution of <i>M. notabilis</i> were identified along with their optimal values. The results indicate that Annual Precipitation (bio12), Precipitation of Driest Month (bio14), Min Temperature of Coldest Month (bio6), Temperature Annual Range (bio5–bio6) (bio7), Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18), and Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (bio19) are the primary environmental variables affecting its potential distribution. Currently, <i>M. notabilis</i> exhibits high suitability over an area spanning 11,568 km<sup>2</sup>, while medium suitability covers 34,244 km<sup>2</sup>. Both current and future suitable areas for <i>M. notabilis</i> are predominantly concentrated in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou provinces, as well as Chongqing city in southwest China. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario representing high greenhouse gas concentrations by 2050s and 2090s, there is an increase in high suitability area by 2952 km<sup>2</sup> and 3440 km<sup>2</sup>, with growth rates reaching 25.52% and 29.74%, respectively. Notably, these two scenarios exhibit substantial expansion in suitable habitats for this species compared to others analyzed within this study period. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T22:32:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ce809434b4234b9ca8f015f81828389c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T22:32:02Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-ce809434b4234b9ca8f015f81828389c2024-02-23T15:17:01ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072024-02-0115235210.3390/f15020352Predicting the Distributions of <i>Morus notabilis</i> C. K. Schneid under Climate Change in ChinaHui Gao0Qianqian Qian1Xinqi Deng2Yaqin Peng3Danping Xu4College of Environmental Science and Engineering, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, ChinaCollege of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, ChinaCollege of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, ChinaCollege of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, ChinaCollege of Environmental Science and Engineering, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, ChinaAs one of the common mulberry tree species, <i>Morus notabilis</i> C. K. Schneid plays a significant role in various industries such as silkworm rearing, papermaking, and medicine due to its valuable mulberry leaves, fruits, and wood. This study utilizes the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential distribution of <i>M. notabilis</i> in China under future environmental changes. By integrating the relative percentage contribution score of environmental factors with jackknife test analysis, important variables influencing the distribution of <i>M. notabilis</i> were identified along with their optimal values. The results indicate that Annual Precipitation (bio12), Precipitation of Driest Month (bio14), Min Temperature of Coldest Month (bio6), Temperature Annual Range (bio5–bio6) (bio7), Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18), and Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (bio19) are the primary environmental variables affecting its potential distribution. Currently, <i>M. notabilis</i> exhibits high suitability over an area spanning 11,568 km<sup>2</sup>, while medium suitability covers 34,244 km<sup>2</sup>. Both current and future suitable areas for <i>M. notabilis</i> are predominantly concentrated in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou provinces, as well as Chongqing city in southwest China. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario representing high greenhouse gas concentrations by 2050s and 2090s, there is an increase in high suitability area by 2952 km<sup>2</sup> and 3440 km<sup>2</sup>, with growth rates reaching 25.52% and 29.74%, respectively. Notably, these two scenarios exhibit substantial expansion in suitable habitats for this species compared to others analyzed within this study period.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/15/2/352MaxEntenvironmental variablessuitable habitatspotential distribution areahabitat suitability simulation |
| spellingShingle | Hui Gao Qianqian Qian Xinqi Deng Yaqin Peng Danping Xu Predicting the Distributions of <i>Morus notabilis</i> C. K. Schneid under Climate Change in China Forests MaxEnt environmental variables suitable habitats potential distribution area habitat suitability simulation |
| title | Predicting the Distributions of <i>Morus notabilis</i> C. K. Schneid under Climate Change in China |
| title_full | Predicting the Distributions of <i>Morus notabilis</i> C. K. Schneid under Climate Change in China |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the Distributions of <i>Morus notabilis</i> C. K. Schneid under Climate Change in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the Distributions of <i>Morus notabilis</i> C. K. Schneid under Climate Change in China |
| title_short | Predicting the Distributions of <i>Morus notabilis</i> C. K. Schneid under Climate Change in China |
| title_sort | predicting the distributions of i morus notabilis i c k schneid under climate change in china |
| topic | MaxEnt environmental variables suitable habitats potential distribution area habitat suitability simulation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/15/2/352 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT huigao predictingthedistributionsofimorusnotabilisickschneidunderclimatechangeinchina AT qianqianqian predictingthedistributionsofimorusnotabilisickschneidunderclimatechangeinchina AT xinqideng predictingthedistributionsofimorusnotabilisickschneidunderclimatechangeinchina AT yaqinpeng predictingthedistributionsofimorusnotabilisickschneidunderclimatechangeinchina AT danpingxu predictingthedistributionsofimorusnotabilisickschneidunderclimatechangeinchina |