Assessing Public Health and Social Measures Against COVID-19 in Japan From March to June 2021
BackgroundPublic health and social measures (PHSM) against COVID-19 in Japan involve requesting the public to voluntarily reduce social contact; these measures are not legally binding. The effectiveness of such PHSM has been questioned with emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant (B.1.1.7), which...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2022.937732/full |
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| author | Katsuma Hayashi Taishi Kayano Asami Anzai Marie Fujimoto Natalie Linton Misaki Sasanami Ayako Suzuki Tetsuro Kobayashi Kanako Otani Masato Yamauchi Motoi Suzuki Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_facet | Katsuma Hayashi Taishi Kayano Asami Anzai Marie Fujimoto Natalie Linton Misaki Sasanami Ayako Suzuki Tetsuro Kobayashi Kanako Otani Masato Yamauchi Motoi Suzuki Hiroshi Nishiura |
| author_sort | Katsuma Hayashi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundPublic health and social measures (PHSM) against COVID-19 in Japan involve requesting the public to voluntarily reduce social contact; these measures are not legally binding. The effectiveness of such PHSM has been questioned with emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant (B.1.1.7), which exhibited elevated transmissibility.Materials and MethodsWe investigated the epidemic dynamics during the fourth epidemic wave in Japan from March to June 2021 involving pre-emergency measures and declaration of a state of emergency (SoE). We estimated the effective reproduction number (Rt) before and after these interventions, and then analyzed the relationship between lower Rt values and each PHSM.ResultsWith implementation of pre-emergency measures (PEM) in 16 prefectures, the Rt was estimated to be < 1 in six prefectures; its average relative reduction ranged from 2 to 19%. During the SoE, 8 of 10 prefectures had an estimated Rt < 1, and the average relative reduction was 26%–39%. No single intervention was identified that uniquely resulted in an Rt value < 1.ConclusionAn SoE can substantially reduce the Rt and may be required to curb a surge in cases caused by future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern with elevated transmissibility. More customized interventions did not reduce the Rt value to < 1 in this study, but that may be partly attributable to the greater transmissibility of the Alpha variant. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T01:06:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cf4b63a1b9224f85ada727118ccb057e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-858X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T01:06:04Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-cf4b63a1b9224f85ada727118ccb057e2022-12-22T01:26:11ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Medicine2296-858X2022-07-01910.3389/fmed.2022.937732937732Assessing Public Health and Social Measures Against COVID-19 in Japan From March to June 2021Katsuma Hayashi0Taishi Kayano1Asami Anzai2Marie Fujimoto3Natalie Linton4Misaki Sasanami5Ayako Suzuki6Tetsuro Kobayashi7Kanako Otani8Masato Yamauchi9Motoi Suzuki10Hiroshi Nishiura11School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanSchool of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanSchool of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanSchool of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanSchool of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanSchool of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanSchool of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanSchool of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanNational Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, JapanNational Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, JapanNational Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, JapanSchool of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, JapanBackgroundPublic health and social measures (PHSM) against COVID-19 in Japan involve requesting the public to voluntarily reduce social contact; these measures are not legally binding. The effectiveness of such PHSM has been questioned with emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant (B.1.1.7), which exhibited elevated transmissibility.Materials and MethodsWe investigated the epidemic dynamics during the fourth epidemic wave in Japan from March to June 2021 involving pre-emergency measures and declaration of a state of emergency (SoE). We estimated the effective reproduction number (Rt) before and after these interventions, and then analyzed the relationship between lower Rt values and each PHSM.ResultsWith implementation of pre-emergency measures (PEM) in 16 prefectures, the Rt was estimated to be < 1 in six prefectures; its average relative reduction ranged from 2 to 19%. During the SoE, 8 of 10 prefectures had an estimated Rt < 1, and the average relative reduction was 26%–39%. No single intervention was identified that uniquely resulted in an Rt value < 1.ConclusionAn SoE can substantially reduce the Rt and may be required to curb a surge in cases caused by future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern with elevated transmissibility. More customized interventions did not reduce the Rt value to < 1 in this study, but that may be partly attributable to the greater transmissibility of the Alpha variant.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2022.937732/fullcoronavirusstatistical estimationmodelingInfectious Diseasemathematical modeleffective reproduction number |
| spellingShingle | Katsuma Hayashi Taishi Kayano Asami Anzai Marie Fujimoto Natalie Linton Misaki Sasanami Ayako Suzuki Tetsuro Kobayashi Kanako Otani Masato Yamauchi Motoi Suzuki Hiroshi Nishiura Assessing Public Health and Social Measures Against COVID-19 in Japan From March to June 2021 Frontiers in Medicine coronavirus statistical estimation modeling Infectious Disease mathematical model effective reproduction number |
| title | Assessing Public Health and Social Measures Against COVID-19 in Japan From March to June 2021 |
| title_full | Assessing Public Health and Social Measures Against COVID-19 in Japan From March to June 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Assessing Public Health and Social Measures Against COVID-19 in Japan From March to June 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing Public Health and Social Measures Against COVID-19 in Japan From March to June 2021 |
| title_short | Assessing Public Health and Social Measures Against COVID-19 in Japan From March to June 2021 |
| title_sort | assessing public health and social measures against covid 19 in japan from march to june 2021 |
| topic | coronavirus statistical estimation modeling Infectious Disease mathematical model effective reproduction number |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2022.937732/full |
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