Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products
<p>The region of southern Africa (SA) has a fragile food economy and is vulnerable to frequent droughts. Interventions to mitigate food insecurity impacts require early warning of droughts – preferably as early as possible before the harvest season (typically starting in April) and lean season...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2020-04-01
|
| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1187/2020/nhess-20-1187-2020.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818341897557508096 |
|---|---|
| author | S. Shukla K. R. Arsenault K. R. Arsenault A. Hazra A. Hazra C. Peters-Lidard R. D. Koster F. Davenport T. Magadzire T. Magadzire T. Magadzire C. Funk C. Funk S. Kumar A. McNally A. McNally A. Getirana A. Getirana G. Husak B. Zaitchik J. Verdin J. Verdin F. D. Nsadisa I. Becker-Reshef |
| author_facet | S. Shukla K. R. Arsenault K. R. Arsenault A. Hazra A. Hazra C. Peters-Lidard R. D. Koster F. Davenport T. Magadzire T. Magadzire T. Magadzire C. Funk C. Funk S. Kumar A. McNally A. McNally A. Getirana A. Getirana G. Husak B. Zaitchik J. Verdin J. Verdin F. D. Nsadisa I. Becker-Reshef |
| author_sort | S. Shukla |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The region of southern Africa (SA) has a fragile food economy and is vulnerable to frequent droughts. Interventions to mitigate food insecurity
impacts require early warning of droughts – preferably as early as possible before the harvest season (typically starting in April) and lean season (typically starting in November). Hydrologic monitoring and forecasting systems provide a unique opportunity to support early warning efforts, since they can provide regular updates on available root-zone soil moisture (RZSM), a critical variable for crop yield, and provide forecasts of RZSM by combining the estimates of antecedent soil moisture conditions with climate forecasts. For SA, this study documents the predictive capabilities of RZSM products from the recently developed NASA Hydrological Forecasting and Analysis System (NHyFAS). Results show that the NHyFAS products would have identified the regional severe drought event – which peaked during December–February of 2015–2016 – at least as early as 1 November 2015. Next, it is shown that during 1982–2016, February RZSM (Feb-RZSM) forecasts (monitoring product) available in early November (early March) have a correlation of 0.49 (0.79) with the detrended regional crop yield. It is also found that when the February RZSM forecast (monitoring product) available in early November (early March) is indicated to be in the lowest tercile, the detrended regional crop yield is below normal about two-thirds of the time (always), at least over the sample years considered. Additionally, it is shown that the February RZSM forecast (monitoring product) can provide “out-of-sample” crop yield forecasts with comparable (substantially better with 40 % reduction in mean error) skill to December–February ENSO. These results indicate that the NHyFAS products can effectively support food insecurity early warning in the SA region. Finally, since a framework similar to NHyFAS can be used to provide RZSM monitoring and forecasting products over other regions of the globe, this case study also demonstrates potential for supporting food insecurity early warning globally.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T16:06:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-cfbdaec8e2354c73a43305f27c2c6755 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T16:06:06Z |
| publishDate | 2020-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-cfbdaec8e2354c73a43305f27c2c67552022-12-21T23:39:03ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812020-04-01201187120110.5194/nhess-20-1187-2020Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting productsS. Shukla0K. R. Arsenault1K. R. Arsenault2A. Hazra3A. Hazra4C. Peters-Lidard5R. D. Koster6F. Davenport7T. Magadzire8T. Magadzire9T. Magadzire10C. Funk11C. Funk12S. Kumar13A. McNally14A. McNally15A. Getirana16A. Getirana17G. Husak18B. Zaitchik19J. Verdin20J. Verdin21F. D. Nsadisa22I. Becker-Reshef23Climate Hazards Center, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USASAIC, Reston, Virginia, USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USAEarth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Maryland, USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USAClimate Hazards Center, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USAClimate Hazards Center, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USAFamine Early Warning Systems Network, Washington, DC, USASouthern African Development Community Climate Services Center, Gaborone, BotswanaClimate Hazards Center, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USAUS Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USAEarth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Maryland, USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USAEarth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Maryland, USAClimate Hazards Center, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USADepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, John Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USAFamine Early Warning Systems Network, Washington, DC, USAUnited States Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USASouthern African Development Community Climate Services Center, Gaborone, BotswanaDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA<p>The region of southern Africa (SA) has a fragile food economy and is vulnerable to frequent droughts. Interventions to mitigate food insecurity impacts require early warning of droughts – preferably as early as possible before the harvest season (typically starting in April) and lean season (typically starting in November). Hydrologic monitoring and forecasting systems provide a unique opportunity to support early warning efforts, since they can provide regular updates on available root-zone soil moisture (RZSM), a critical variable for crop yield, and provide forecasts of RZSM by combining the estimates of antecedent soil moisture conditions with climate forecasts. For SA, this study documents the predictive capabilities of RZSM products from the recently developed NASA Hydrological Forecasting and Analysis System (NHyFAS). Results show that the NHyFAS products would have identified the regional severe drought event – which peaked during December–February of 2015–2016 – at least as early as 1 November 2015. Next, it is shown that during 1982–2016, February RZSM (Feb-RZSM) forecasts (monitoring product) available in early November (early March) have a correlation of 0.49 (0.79) with the detrended regional crop yield. It is also found that when the February RZSM forecast (monitoring product) available in early November (early March) is indicated to be in the lowest tercile, the detrended regional crop yield is below normal about two-thirds of the time (always), at least over the sample years considered. Additionally, it is shown that the February RZSM forecast (monitoring product) can provide “out-of-sample” crop yield forecasts with comparable (substantially better with 40 % reduction in mean error) skill to December–February ENSO. These results indicate that the NHyFAS products can effectively support food insecurity early warning in the SA region. Finally, since a framework similar to NHyFAS can be used to provide RZSM monitoring and forecasting products over other regions of the globe, this case study also demonstrates potential for supporting food insecurity early warning globally.</p>https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1187/2020/nhess-20-1187-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Shukla K. R. Arsenault K. R. Arsenault A. Hazra A. Hazra C. Peters-Lidard R. D. Koster F. Davenport T. Magadzire T. Magadzire T. Magadzire C. Funk C. Funk S. Kumar A. McNally A. McNally A. Getirana A. Getirana G. Husak B. Zaitchik J. Verdin J. Verdin F. D. Nsadisa I. Becker-Reshef Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products |
| title_full | Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products |
| title_fullStr | Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products |
| title_short | Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products |
| title_sort | improving early warning of drought driven food insecurity in southern africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products |
| url | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1187/2020/nhess-20-1187-2020.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sshukla improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT krarsenault improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT krarsenault improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT ahazra improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT ahazra improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT cpeterslidard improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT rdkoster improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT fdavenport improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT tmagadzire improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT tmagadzire improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT tmagadzire improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT cfunk improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT cfunk improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT skumar improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT amcnally improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT amcnally improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT agetirana improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT agetirana improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT ghusak improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT bzaitchik improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT jverdin improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT jverdin improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT fdnsadisa improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts AT ibeckerreshef improvingearlywarningofdroughtdrivenfoodinsecurityinsouthernafricausingoperationalhydrologicalmonitoringandforecastingproducts |