The Risk of Cancer Might be Lower Than We Think. Alternatives to Lifetime Risk Estimates
Background Estimates of lifetime cancer risk are commonly used in the clinical setting and in health-care evaluations. These measures are based on lifetime cancer risk estimates and may create an unrealistically frightening perception of cancer risk for an individual. We suggest using two new measu...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Rambam Health Care Campus
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Rambam Maimonides Medical Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.rmmj.org.il/issues/36/773/manuscript |
| _version_ | 1811286209788379136 |
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| author | Gilat L. Grunau Shay Gueron Boris Pornov Shai Linn |
| author_facet | Gilat L. Grunau Shay Gueron Boris Pornov Shai Linn |
| author_sort | Gilat L. Grunau |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background
Estimates of lifetime cancer risk are commonly used in the clinical setting and in health-care evaluations. These measures are based on lifetime cancer risk estimates and may create an unrealistically frightening perception of cancer risk for an individual. We suggest using two new measures of cancer risk to complement the cancer lifetime risk measure, namely estimates of cancer risk from birth to a specific age or from a specific age to life expectancy.
Methods
We calculated risks using incidence density data from the Israel National Cancer Registry of 2013, applying a well-known formula for calculating risk, for a follow-up time. The joint disease-free survival probability is calculated for several age intervals, and hence the risk (i.e. 1–survival) for the intervals.
Results
The risk of cancer to age 80 in Jewish men and women, respectively, ranged from about 0.336 and 0.329 at age 0, to 0.279 and 0.237 at age 60. The risk of cancer from birth up to an age in Jewish men and women, respectively, ranged from 0 and 0 at birth to 0.088 and 0.129 at age 60. The risk of cancer to age 80 in Arab men and women, respectively, ranged from 0.298 and 0.235 at age 0 to 0.249 and 0.161 at age 60. The risk of cancer from birth up to an age in Arab men and women, respectively, ranged from 0 and 0 at age 0 to 0.074 and 0.095 at age 60. In Jewish and Arab women, breast cancer risk to age 80 decreased from about 0.127 in Jewish women at age 40 to 0.079 at age 60 and from 0.080 to 0.043 in Arab women; the risk from birth up to a specific age ranged between 0 and 0.056, and 0 and 0.040, respectively.
Conclusion
The two proposed new estimates convey important additional information to patients and physicians. These estimates are considerably lower than the frequently quoted 33% lifetime cancer risk and are more relevant to patients and physicians. Similarly, breast cancer risk estimates up to or from a specific age differ considerably from the frequently quoted lifetime risk estimates of 1 in 8 women. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:56:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d02d9ffd6d4343febe885744c9f44017 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-9172 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:56:22Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Rambam Health Care Campus |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Rambam Maimonides Medical Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-d02d9ffd6d4343febe885744c9f440172022-12-22T03:05:39ZengRambam Health Care CampusRambam Maimonides Medical Journal2076-91722018-01-0191e000210.5041/RMMJ.10321The Risk of Cancer Might be Lower Than We Think. Alternatives to Lifetime Risk EstimatesGilat L. Grunau0Shay Gueron1Boris Pornov2Shai Linn3Department of Radiology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, CanadaDepartment of Mathematics, University of Haifa, Haifa, IsraelDepartment of Environment Management, University of Haifa, Haifa, IsraelSchool of Public Health, University of Haifa, Haifa, IsraelBackground Estimates of lifetime cancer risk are commonly used in the clinical setting and in health-care evaluations. These measures are based on lifetime cancer risk estimates and may create an unrealistically frightening perception of cancer risk for an individual. We suggest using two new measures of cancer risk to complement the cancer lifetime risk measure, namely estimates of cancer risk from birth to a specific age or from a specific age to life expectancy. Methods We calculated risks using incidence density data from the Israel National Cancer Registry of 2013, applying a well-known formula for calculating risk, for a follow-up time. The joint disease-free survival probability is calculated for several age intervals, and hence the risk (i.e. 1–survival) for the intervals. Results The risk of cancer to age 80 in Jewish men and women, respectively, ranged from about 0.336 and 0.329 at age 0, to 0.279 and 0.237 at age 60. The risk of cancer from birth up to an age in Jewish men and women, respectively, ranged from 0 and 0 at birth to 0.088 and 0.129 at age 60. The risk of cancer to age 80 in Arab men and women, respectively, ranged from 0.298 and 0.235 at age 0 to 0.249 and 0.161 at age 60. The risk of cancer from birth up to an age in Arab men and women, respectively, ranged from 0 and 0 at age 0 to 0.074 and 0.095 at age 60. In Jewish and Arab women, breast cancer risk to age 80 decreased from about 0.127 in Jewish women at age 40 to 0.079 at age 60 and from 0.080 to 0.043 in Arab women; the risk from birth up to a specific age ranged between 0 and 0.056, and 0 and 0.040, respectively. Conclusion The two proposed new estimates convey important additional information to patients and physicians. These estimates are considerably lower than the frequently quoted 33% lifetime cancer risk and are more relevant to patients and physicians. Similarly, breast cancer risk estimates up to or from a specific age differ considerably from the frequently quoted lifetime risk estimates of 1 in 8 women.https://www.rmmj.org.il/issues/36/773/manuscriptBreast cancercancerepidemiologylifetime riskmethodologyrisk |
| spellingShingle | Gilat L. Grunau Shay Gueron Boris Pornov Shai Linn The Risk of Cancer Might be Lower Than We Think. Alternatives to Lifetime Risk Estimates Rambam Maimonides Medical Journal Breast cancer cancer epidemiology lifetime risk methodology risk |
| title | The Risk of Cancer Might be Lower Than We Think. Alternatives to Lifetime Risk Estimates |
| title_full | The Risk of Cancer Might be Lower Than We Think. Alternatives to Lifetime Risk Estimates |
| title_fullStr | The Risk of Cancer Might be Lower Than We Think. Alternatives to Lifetime Risk Estimates |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Risk of Cancer Might be Lower Than We Think. Alternatives to Lifetime Risk Estimates |
| title_short | The Risk of Cancer Might be Lower Than We Think. Alternatives to Lifetime Risk Estimates |
| title_sort | risk of cancer might be lower than we think alternatives to lifetime risk estimates |
| topic | Breast cancer cancer epidemiology lifetime risk methodology risk |
| url | https://www.rmmj.org.il/issues/36/773/manuscript |
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