Collateral damage? Welfare effects of the Ukraine war on Pakistan
The 2022 Ukraine conflict has contributed to a major spike in international commodity prices. In this study, we conduct a top-down, macro-micro simulation analysis by combining Computable General Equilibrium simulations with data from the 2018–19 Pakistan Household Integrated Economic Survey to anal...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-12-01
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| Series: | World Development Sustainability |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772655X2300040X |
| _version_ | 1797389371211513856 |
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| author | Ayaz Muhammad Fontan-Sers Charlotte Maisonnave Helene Mughal Yasin Mazhar |
| author_facet | Ayaz Muhammad Fontan-Sers Charlotte Maisonnave Helene Mughal Yasin Mazhar |
| author_sort | Ayaz Muhammad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The 2022 Ukraine conflict has contributed to a major spike in international commodity prices. In this study, we conduct a top-down, macro-micro simulation analysis by combining Computable General Equilibrium simulations with data from the 2018–19 Pakistan Household Integrated Economic Survey to analyze the impact of global price shock to four major commodities, namely wheat, vegetable oil, petroleum, and fertilizers. We come up with evidence for a significant, non-negligible negative impact of the price shock, both at the aggregate and the household level: Real GDP shrinks and real household consumption and income decrease. The drop in consumption and income is more visible among farm households, with the two falling by 5% and 3.48% respectively. The consumption and income of the above-median income households fall more steeply, and income inequality decreases. The USD3.2 headcount poverty rate at the 2018 purchasing power parity increases by 1.15%. Urban households show the worst decline in food security, both in incidence and intensity. The role of petrol prices in driving poverty among rural farm households and that of food stuff (wheat and vegetable oil prices) in aggravating urban food security is particularly evident. These findings highlight the poverty and food security-worsening dimension of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:54:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d04df4796ee74d30a3ba98e5d2acf6b0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2772-655X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:54:52Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | World Development Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj.art-d04df4796ee74d30a3ba98e5d2acf6b02023-12-16T06:11:20ZengElsevierWorld Development Sustainability2772-655X2023-12-013100082Collateral damage? Welfare effects of the Ukraine war on PakistanAyaz Muhammad0Fontan-Sers Charlotte1Maisonnave Helene2Mughal Yasin Mazhar3UMR TREE, University of Pau, Pau, France; University of Balochistan, Quetta, PakistanPau Business School, Pau, FranceUniversité Le Havre Normandie, Le Havre, FrancePau Business School, Pau, France; Corresponding author.The 2022 Ukraine conflict has contributed to a major spike in international commodity prices. In this study, we conduct a top-down, macro-micro simulation analysis by combining Computable General Equilibrium simulations with data from the 2018–19 Pakistan Household Integrated Economic Survey to analyze the impact of global price shock to four major commodities, namely wheat, vegetable oil, petroleum, and fertilizers. We come up with evidence for a significant, non-negligible negative impact of the price shock, both at the aggregate and the household level: Real GDP shrinks and real household consumption and income decrease. The drop in consumption and income is more visible among farm households, with the two falling by 5% and 3.48% respectively. The consumption and income of the above-median income households fall more steeply, and income inequality decreases. The USD3.2 headcount poverty rate at the 2018 purchasing power parity increases by 1.15%. Urban households show the worst decline in food security, both in incidence and intensity. The role of petrol prices in driving poverty among rural farm households and that of food stuff (wheat and vegetable oil prices) in aggravating urban food security is particularly evident. These findings highlight the poverty and food security-worsening dimension of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772655X2300040XWelfarePovertyFood securityMacro-micro modelsUkraine warPakistan |
| spellingShingle | Ayaz Muhammad Fontan-Sers Charlotte Maisonnave Helene Mughal Yasin Mazhar Collateral damage? Welfare effects of the Ukraine war on Pakistan World Development Sustainability Welfare Poverty Food security Macro-micro models Ukraine war Pakistan |
| title | Collateral damage? Welfare effects of the Ukraine war on Pakistan |
| title_full | Collateral damage? Welfare effects of the Ukraine war on Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | Collateral damage? Welfare effects of the Ukraine war on Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Collateral damage? Welfare effects of the Ukraine war on Pakistan |
| title_short | Collateral damage? Welfare effects of the Ukraine war on Pakistan |
| title_sort | collateral damage welfare effects of the ukraine war on pakistan |
| topic | Welfare Poverty Food security Macro-micro models Ukraine war Pakistan |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772655X2300040X |
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