Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain
Abstract A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we pres...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44637-y |
| _version_ | 1797355882762207232 |
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| author | Jan E. Snellman Nadia L. Barreiro Rafael A. Barrio Cecilia I. Ventura Tzipe Govezensky Kimmo K. Kaski Maarit J. Korpi-Lagg |
| author_facet | Jan E. Snellman Nadia L. Barreiro Rafael A. Barrio Cecilia I. Ventura Tzipe Govezensky Kimmo K. Kaski Maarit J. Korpi-Lagg |
| author_sort | Jan E. Snellman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we present an attempt to understand the role of the governmental authorities and the response of the rest of the population facing such emergencies. We present a mathematical model that takes into account the epidemiological features of the pandemic and also the actions of people responding to it, focusing only on three aspects of the system, namely, the fear of catching this serious disease, the impact on the economic activities and the compliance of the people to the mitigating measures adopted by the authorities. We apply the model to the specific case of Spain, since there are accurate data available about these three features. We focused on tourism as an example of the economic activity, since this sector of economy is one of the most likely to be affected by the restrictions imposed by the authorities, and because it represents an important part of Spanish economy. The results of numerical calculations agree with the empirical data in such a way that we can acquire a better insight of the different processes at play in such a complex situation, and also in other different circumstances. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:17:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d07f401053b8418e9606c6f13f006406 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:17:35Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-d07f401053b8418e9606c6f13f0064062024-01-14T12:18:04ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-01-0114111010.1038/s41598-023-44637-ySocio-economic pandemic modelling: case of SpainJan E. Snellman0Nadia L. Barreiro1Rafael A. Barrio2Cecilia I. Ventura3Tzipe Govezensky4Kimmo K. Kaski5Maarit J. Korpi-Lagg6Department of Computer Science, Aalto University School of ScienceInstituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas para la Defensa (CITEDEF)Instituto de Física, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México(CONICET) Centro Atómico Bariloche-CNEAInstituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoDepartment of Computer Science, Aalto University School of ScienceDepartment of Computer Science, Aalto University School of ScienceAbstract A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we present an attempt to understand the role of the governmental authorities and the response of the rest of the population facing such emergencies. We present a mathematical model that takes into account the epidemiological features of the pandemic and also the actions of people responding to it, focusing only on three aspects of the system, namely, the fear of catching this serious disease, the impact on the economic activities and the compliance of the people to the mitigating measures adopted by the authorities. We apply the model to the specific case of Spain, since there are accurate data available about these three features. We focused on tourism as an example of the economic activity, since this sector of economy is one of the most likely to be affected by the restrictions imposed by the authorities, and because it represents an important part of Spanish economy. The results of numerical calculations agree with the empirical data in such a way that we can acquire a better insight of the different processes at play in such a complex situation, and also in other different circumstances.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44637-y |
| spellingShingle | Jan E. Snellman Nadia L. Barreiro Rafael A. Barrio Cecilia I. Ventura Tzipe Govezensky Kimmo K. Kaski Maarit J. Korpi-Lagg Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain Scientific Reports |
| title | Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain |
| title_full | Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain |
| title_fullStr | Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain |
| title_full_unstemmed | Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain |
| title_short | Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain |
| title_sort | socio economic pandemic modelling case of spain |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44637-y |
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