Trends in Varicella Burden of Disease Following Introduction of Routine Childhood Varicella Vaccination in Argentina: A 12-Year Time Series Analysis
One-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) was introduced in the Argentinian National Immunization Program in July 2015. This study examined the impact of one-dose UVV on varicella incidence and mortality in Argentina. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from official databases for pre-UV...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Vaccines |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/10/7/1151 |
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| author | Norberto Giglio Pieralessandro Lasalvia Manjiri Pawaskar Cintia I. Parellada Yaneth Gil Rojas Paula Micone Virginia V. Babic Silvina E. Neyro |
| author_facet | Norberto Giglio Pieralessandro Lasalvia Manjiri Pawaskar Cintia I. Parellada Yaneth Gil Rojas Paula Micone Virginia V. Babic Silvina E. Neyro |
| author_sort | Norberto Giglio |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | One-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) was introduced in the Argentinian National Immunization Program in July 2015. This study examined the impact of one-dose UVV on varicella incidence and mortality in Argentina. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from official databases for pre-UVV (January 2008–June 2015) and post-UVV (July 2015–December 2019) periods. Time series analyses with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling predicted varicella incidence and mortality in absence of UVV in the target (aged 1–4 years) and overall population. Predicted and observed values post-UVV were compared to estimate UVV impact. Mean annual incidence rates per 100,000 reduced from 1999 (pre-UVV) to 1122 (post-UVV) in the target population and from 178 to 154 in the overall population. Significant declines in incidence were observed, reaching reductions of 83.9% (95% prediction interval [PI]: 58.9, 90.0) and 69.1% (95% PI: 23.6, 80.7) in the target and overall populations, respectively, during peak months (September-November) post-UVV. Decreasing trends in mortality rate from 0.4 to 0.2 per 1,000,000 population were observed. Over the last four years, one-dose UVV has significantly reduced varicella burden of disease in Argentina. Continuous efforts to improve vaccination coverage rates and long-term follow-up are needed to better understand the benefits of the UVV program. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:43:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d081ee86d5c64744a116d40488a46752 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-393X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T05:43:33Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-d081ee86d5c64744a116d40488a467522023-12-03T12:23:31ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2022-07-01107115110.3390/vaccines10071151Trends in Varicella Burden of Disease Following Introduction of Routine Childhood Varicella Vaccination in Argentina: A 12-Year Time Series AnalysisNorberto Giglio0Pieralessandro Lasalvia1Manjiri Pawaskar2Cintia I. Parellada3Yaneth Gil Rojas4Paula Micone5Virginia V. Babic6Silvina E. Neyro7Hospital de Niños Ricardo Gutiérrez, Buenos Aires C1425EFD, ArgentinaNeuroEconomix, Bogotá D.C. 110831, ColombiaMerck & Co., Inc., Vaccines, Rahway, NJ 19454, USAMSD Brazil, São Paulo 04583-110, BrazilNeuroEconomix, Bogotá D.C. 110831, ColombiaHospital Carlos G Durand, Obstetrics, Buenos Aires C1405DCS, ArgentinaMSD Argentina, Buenos Aires B1605AZE, ArgentinaMinisterio de Salud de la Nación, Dirección de Control de Enfermedades Inmunoprevenibles (DiCEI), Buenos Aires C1073ABA, ArgentinaOne-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) was introduced in the Argentinian National Immunization Program in July 2015. This study examined the impact of one-dose UVV on varicella incidence and mortality in Argentina. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from official databases for pre-UVV (January 2008–June 2015) and post-UVV (July 2015–December 2019) periods. Time series analyses with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling predicted varicella incidence and mortality in absence of UVV in the target (aged 1–4 years) and overall population. Predicted and observed values post-UVV were compared to estimate UVV impact. Mean annual incidence rates per 100,000 reduced from 1999 (pre-UVV) to 1122 (post-UVV) in the target population and from 178 to 154 in the overall population. Significant declines in incidence were observed, reaching reductions of 83.9% (95% prediction interval [PI]: 58.9, 90.0) and 69.1% (95% PI: 23.6, 80.7) in the target and overall populations, respectively, during peak months (September-November) post-UVV. Decreasing trends in mortality rate from 0.4 to 0.2 per 1,000,000 population were observed. Over the last four years, one-dose UVV has significantly reduced varicella burden of disease in Argentina. Continuous efforts to improve vaccination coverage rates and long-term follow-up are needed to better understand the benefits of the UVV program.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/10/7/1151varicella vaccinationinfectious disease burdensurveillancetime seriesARIMA |
| spellingShingle | Norberto Giglio Pieralessandro Lasalvia Manjiri Pawaskar Cintia I. Parellada Yaneth Gil Rojas Paula Micone Virginia V. Babic Silvina E. Neyro Trends in Varicella Burden of Disease Following Introduction of Routine Childhood Varicella Vaccination in Argentina: A 12-Year Time Series Analysis Vaccines varicella vaccination infectious disease burden surveillance time series ARIMA |
| title | Trends in Varicella Burden of Disease Following Introduction of Routine Childhood Varicella Vaccination in Argentina: A 12-Year Time Series Analysis |
| title_full | Trends in Varicella Burden of Disease Following Introduction of Routine Childhood Varicella Vaccination in Argentina: A 12-Year Time Series Analysis |
| title_fullStr | Trends in Varicella Burden of Disease Following Introduction of Routine Childhood Varicella Vaccination in Argentina: A 12-Year Time Series Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trends in Varicella Burden of Disease Following Introduction of Routine Childhood Varicella Vaccination in Argentina: A 12-Year Time Series Analysis |
| title_short | Trends in Varicella Burden of Disease Following Introduction of Routine Childhood Varicella Vaccination in Argentina: A 12-Year Time Series Analysis |
| title_sort | trends in varicella burden of disease following introduction of routine childhood varicella vaccination in argentina a 12 year time series analysis |
| topic | varicella vaccination infectious disease burden surveillance time series ARIMA |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/10/7/1151 |
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