| Summary: | The objective of the paper was to study the effects of the Russian –Ukrainian conflict on Romanian inflation
using the energy shock’s pass-through effect to inflation in Europe after the invasion. A monthly time series dataset is
used for econometric analysis, and the data was collected from EUROSTAT, IMF and BNR databases. Using a
Cochrane–Orcutt AR (1) regression with iterated estimates that control for autocorrelated error terms, we measured
how variations in the price of coal, gas, and oil affected the harmonized consumer price index (HCPI). Our results
suggest that oil price increases will lead to an increase in HIPC in Romania. Gas prices had an inverse relationship
with HIPC in the analyzed period. The data however did not suggest a relation between coal price and inflation, in the
studied period. The energy shock that occurred in Europe accounted in higher prices for gasoline, heating, and
electricity on the short run, but there is no evidence that this inflationary pressure will affect long run household
inflation.
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