Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basin
<p>Global warming is projected to result in changes in streamflow in West Africa with implications for frequent droughts and floods. This study investigates projected shifting in the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta Rive...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2024-04-01
|
| Series: | Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/385/121/2024/piahs-385-121-2024.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Global warming is projected to result in changes in streamflow in West Africa with implications for frequent droughts and floods. This study investigates projected shifting in the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta River basin (VRB) under climate change, using the method of circular statistics. River flow is simulated with the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), forced with bias-corrected climate projection datasets consisting of 43 regional and global climate model combinations under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Projected changes indicate that AMF increases between <span class="inline-formula">+1</span> % and <span class="inline-formula">+80</span> % across sub-basins, particularly in the near future (2021–2050), whereas MAM decreases between <span class="inline-formula">−19</span> % and <span class="inline-formula">−7</span> %, mainly from the late century (2071–2100), depending on RCPs. The date of occurrence of AMF is projected to change between <span class="inline-formula">−4</span> and <span class="inline-formula">+3</span> d, while MAM could shift between <span class="inline-formula">−4</span> and <span class="inline-formula">+14</span> d depending on scenarios over the 21st century. Annual high flows denote a strong seasonality with negligible future changes, whereas the seasonality of low flows has a higher variation, with a slight drop in the future.</p> |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 2199-8981 2199-899X |