Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basin
<p>Global warming is projected to result in changes in streamflow in West Africa with implications for frequent droughts and floods. This study investigates projected shifting in the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta Rive...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/385/121/2024/piahs-385-121-2024.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797201757337550848 |
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| author | M. Dembélé M. Dembélé M. Dembélé M. Vrac N. Ceperley S. J. Zwart J. Larsen S. J. Dadson S. J. Dadson G. Mariéthoz B. Schaefli B. Schaefli |
| author_facet | M. Dembélé M. Dembélé M. Dembélé M. Vrac N. Ceperley S. J. Zwart J. Larsen S. J. Dadson S. J. Dadson G. Mariéthoz B. Schaefli B. Schaefli |
| author_sort | M. Dembélé |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Global warming is projected to result in changes in streamflow in West Africa with implications for frequent droughts and floods. This study investigates projected shifting in the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta River basin (VRB) under climate change, using the method of circular statistics. River flow is simulated with the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), forced with bias-corrected climate projection datasets consisting of 43 regional and global climate model combinations under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Projected changes indicate that AMF increases between <span class="inline-formula">+1</span> % and <span class="inline-formula">+80</span> % across sub-basins, particularly in the near future (2021–2050), whereas MAM decreases between <span class="inline-formula">−19</span> % and <span class="inline-formula">−7</span> %, mainly from the late century (2071–2100), depending on RCPs. The date of occurrence of AMF is projected to change between <span class="inline-formula">−4</span> and <span class="inline-formula">+3</span> d, while MAM could shift between <span class="inline-formula">−4</span> and <span class="inline-formula">+14</span> d depending on scenarios over the 21st century. Annual high flows denote a strong seasonality with negligible future changes, whereas the seasonality of low flows has a higher variation, with a slight drop in the future.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:52:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d0af5c52b3864bc39eacf3301d4f690e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2199-8981 2199-899X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:52:37Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-d0af5c52b3864bc39eacf3301d4f690e2024-04-18T08:57:16ZengCopernicus PublicationsProceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences2199-89812199-899X2024-04-0138512112710.5194/piahs-385-121-2024Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basinM. Dembélé0M. Dembélé1M. Dembélé2M. Vrac3N. Ceperley4S. J. Zwart5J. Larsen6S. J. Dadson7S. J. Dadson8G. Mariéthoz9B. Schaefli10B. Schaefli11Digital Innovation, International Water Management Institute (IWMI), CSIR Campus, No. 6 Agostino Neto Road, Accra, GhanaInstitute of Earth Surface Dynamics (IDYST), Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, SwitzerlandInstitute of Geography (GIUB) and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, 3012 Bern, SwitzerlandLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE-IPSL), CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Centre d'Etudes de Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceInstitute of Geography (GIUB) and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, 3012 Bern, SwitzerlandDigital Innovation, International Water Management Institute (IWMI), CSIR Campus, No. 6 Agostino Neto Road, Accra, GhanaSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UKSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UKUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UKInstitute of Earth Surface Dynamics (IDYST), Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, SwitzerlandInstitute of Earth Surface Dynamics (IDYST), Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, SwitzerlandInstitute of Geography (GIUB) and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland<p>Global warming is projected to result in changes in streamflow in West Africa with implications for frequent droughts and floods. This study investigates projected shifting in the timing, seasonality and magnitude of mean annual minimum (MAM) and annual maximum flows (AMF) in the Volta River basin (VRB) under climate change, using the method of circular statistics. River flow is simulated with the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), forced with bias-corrected climate projection datasets consisting of 43 regional and global climate model combinations under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Projected changes indicate that AMF increases between <span class="inline-formula">+1</span> % and <span class="inline-formula">+80</span> % across sub-basins, particularly in the near future (2021–2050), whereas MAM decreases between <span class="inline-formula">−19</span> % and <span class="inline-formula">−7</span> %, mainly from the late century (2071–2100), depending on RCPs. The date of occurrence of AMF is projected to change between <span class="inline-formula">−4</span> and <span class="inline-formula">+3</span> d, while MAM could shift between <span class="inline-formula">−4</span> and <span class="inline-formula">+14</span> d depending on scenarios over the 21st century. Annual high flows denote a strong seasonality with negligible future changes, whereas the seasonality of low flows has a higher variation, with a slight drop in the future.</p>https://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/385/121/2024/piahs-385-121-2024.pdf |
| spellingShingle | M. Dembélé M. Dembélé M. Dembélé M. Vrac N. Ceperley S. J. Zwart J. Larsen S. J. Dadson S. J. Dadson G. Mariéthoz B. Schaefli B. Schaefli Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basin Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
| title | Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basin |
| title_full | Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basin |
| title_fullStr | Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basin |
| title_short | Future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the Volta River basin |
| title_sort | future shifting of annual extreme flows under climate change in the volta river basin |
| url | https://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/385/121/2024/piahs-385-121-2024.pdf |
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