A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change
Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate ch...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018 |
| _version_ | 1827870792159854592 |
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| author | Lila Warszawski Andrew Friend Sebastian Ostberg Katja Frieler Wolfgang Lucht Sibyll Schaphoff David Beerling Patricia Cadule Philippe Ciais Douglas B Clark Ron Kahana Akihiko Ito Rozenn Keribin Axel Kleidon Mark Lomas Kazuya Nishina Ryan Pavlick Tim Tito Rademacher Matthias Buechner Franziska Piontek Jacob Schewe Olivia Serdeczny Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| author_facet | Lila Warszawski Andrew Friend Sebastian Ostberg Katja Frieler Wolfgang Lucht Sibyll Schaphoff David Beerling Patricia Cadule Philippe Ciais Douglas B Clark Ron Kahana Akihiko Ito Rozenn Keribin Axel Kleidon Mark Lomas Kazuya Nishina Ryan Pavlick Tim Tito Rademacher Matthias Buechner Franziska Piontek Jacob Schewe Olivia Serdeczny Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| author_sort | Lila Warszawski |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d0ecc119c20f4c68a14811708a4b5bc5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:00Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-d0ecc119c20f4c68a14811708a4b5bc52023-08-09T14:38:32ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262013-01-018404401810.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate changeLila Warszawski0Andrew Friend1Sebastian Ostberg2Katja Frieler3Wolfgang Lucht4Sibyll Schaphoff5David Beerling6Patricia Cadule7Philippe Ciais8Douglas B Clark9Ron Kahana10Akihiko Ito11Rozenn Keribin12Axel Kleidon13Mark Lomas14Kazuya Nishina15Ryan Pavlick16Tim Tito Rademacher17Matthias Buechner18Franziska Piontek19Jacob Schewe20Olivia Serdeczny21Hans Joachim Schellnhuber22Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , D-14412 Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Geography, University of Cambridge , Cambridge, UKPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , D-14412 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , D-14412 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , D-14412 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , D-14412 Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield , UKLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment , Gif sur Yvette, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment , Gif sur Yvette, FranceCentre for Ecology and Hydrology , Wallingford OX10 8BB, UKMet Office Hadley Centre , Exeter EX1 3PB, UKCenter for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies , JapanDepartment of Geography, University of Cambridge , Cambridge, UKMax-Planck-Institut fuer Biogeochemie , PO Box 10 01 64, D-07701 Jena, GermanyDepartment of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield , UKCenter for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies , JapanMax-Planck-Institut fuer Biogeochemie , PO Box 10 01 64, D-07701 Jena, GermanyDepartment of Geography, University of Cambridge , Cambridge, UKPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , D-14412 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , D-14412 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , D-14412 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , D-14412 Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , D-14412 Potsdam, Germany; Santa Fe Institue , Santa Fe, NM 87501, USAClimate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018climate changeecosystem changeglobal vegetation |
| spellingShingle | Lila Warszawski Andrew Friend Sebastian Ostberg Katja Frieler Wolfgang Lucht Sibyll Schaphoff David Beerling Patricia Cadule Philippe Ciais Douglas B Clark Ron Kahana Akihiko Ito Rozenn Keribin Axel Kleidon Mark Lomas Kazuya Nishina Ryan Pavlick Tim Tito Rademacher Matthias Buechner Franziska Piontek Jacob Schewe Olivia Serdeczny Hans Joachim Schellnhuber A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change Environmental Research Letters climate change ecosystem change global vegetation |
| title | A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
| title_full | A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
| title_fullStr | A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
| title_short | A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
| title_sort | multi model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change |
| topic | climate change ecosystem change global vegetation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044018 |
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