The impact of host metapopulation structure on short-term evolutionary rescue in the face of a novel pathogenic threat
While most evolutionary studies of host-pathogen dynamics consider pathogen evolution alone or host-pathogen coevolution, there is evidence that hosts can evolve more rapidly than their pathogen during initial outbreaks after disease introduction, e.g. evolutionary rescue in the short term. In these...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989420307150 |
| _version_ | 1818115957815508992 |
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| author | Jing Jiao Michael A. Gilchrist Nina. H. Fefferman |
| author_facet | Jing Jiao Michael A. Gilchrist Nina. H. Fefferman |
| author_sort | Jing Jiao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | While most evolutionary studies of host-pathogen dynamics consider pathogen evolution alone or host-pathogen coevolution, there is evidence that hosts can evolve more rapidly than their pathogen during initial outbreaks after disease introduction, e.g. evolutionary rescue in the short term. In these cases, spatial, temporal and epidemiological factors could all affect the evolutionary dynamics of the host population. To help inform potential conservation policies in the near-term, we considered the case of one pathogen introduced into a metapopulation of hosts with two genotypes: wild type and robust in which there is a tradeoff in disease-driven mortality and spatial mobility. We employed a classic Susceptible-Infected model and explored how differences in mortality and migration affect the representation of host genotypes and total host population persistence. We find that greater difference in disease-driven mortality between the two host types increases the probability of evolutionary rescue, but there is a point after which disease-driven mortality is so high as to drive the disease prevalence below the reproductive threshold, ending the outbreak and therefore benefitting the wild type. Migration reduces the chance of evolutionary rescue by reducing the competition between the two host genotypes when the difference in disease-driven mortality is sufficiently small, but at larger differences migration acts primarily as a facilitator of disease spread, increasing the probability of evolutionary rescue, though significantly decreasing the total size of the surviving population. This study reveals that both epidemiology and metapopulation ecology can play critical roles in host evolution during the emergence of a novel infection and provide guidance for host conservation and disease control. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T04:14:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d14d24778a8c4e1781ac27376072f2f8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2351-9894 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T04:14:53Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| spelling | doaj.art-d14d24778a8c4e1781ac27376072f2f82022-12-22T01:21:17ZengElsevierGlobal Ecology and Conservation2351-98942020-09-0123e01174The impact of host metapopulation structure on short-term evolutionary rescue in the face of a novel pathogenic threatJing Jiao0Michael A. Gilchrist1Nina. H. Fefferman2National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, The University of Tennessee, 1122 Volunteer Blvd., Suite 106, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USA; Corresponding author.Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, The University of Tennessee, 1416 Circle Drive, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USANational Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, The University of Tennessee, 1122 Volunteer Blvd., Suite 106, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USA; Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, The University of Tennessee, 1416 Circle Drive, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USAWhile most evolutionary studies of host-pathogen dynamics consider pathogen evolution alone or host-pathogen coevolution, there is evidence that hosts can evolve more rapidly than their pathogen during initial outbreaks after disease introduction, e.g. evolutionary rescue in the short term. In these cases, spatial, temporal and epidemiological factors could all affect the evolutionary dynamics of the host population. To help inform potential conservation policies in the near-term, we considered the case of one pathogen introduced into a metapopulation of hosts with two genotypes: wild type and robust in which there is a tradeoff in disease-driven mortality and spatial mobility. We employed a classic Susceptible-Infected model and explored how differences in mortality and migration affect the representation of host genotypes and total host population persistence. We find that greater difference in disease-driven mortality between the two host types increases the probability of evolutionary rescue, but there is a point after which disease-driven mortality is so high as to drive the disease prevalence below the reproductive threshold, ending the outbreak and therefore benefitting the wild type. Migration reduces the chance of evolutionary rescue by reducing the competition between the two host genotypes when the difference in disease-driven mortality is sufficiently small, but at larger differences migration acts primarily as a facilitator of disease spread, increasing the probability of evolutionary rescue, though significantly decreasing the total size of the surviving population. This study reveals that both epidemiology and metapopulation ecology can play critical roles in host evolution during the emergence of a novel infection and provide guidance for host conservation and disease control.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989420307150Spatial structureMigrationPatch topologyDisease-induced mortalitySI model |
| spellingShingle | Jing Jiao Michael A. Gilchrist Nina. H. Fefferman The impact of host metapopulation structure on short-term evolutionary rescue in the face of a novel pathogenic threat Global Ecology and Conservation Spatial structure Migration Patch topology Disease-induced mortality SI model |
| title | The impact of host metapopulation structure on short-term evolutionary rescue in the face of a novel pathogenic threat |
| title_full | The impact of host metapopulation structure on short-term evolutionary rescue in the face of a novel pathogenic threat |
| title_fullStr | The impact of host metapopulation structure on short-term evolutionary rescue in the face of a novel pathogenic threat |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of host metapopulation structure on short-term evolutionary rescue in the face of a novel pathogenic threat |
| title_short | The impact of host metapopulation structure on short-term evolutionary rescue in the face of a novel pathogenic threat |
| title_sort | impact of host metapopulation structure on short term evolutionary rescue in the face of a novel pathogenic threat |
| topic | Spatial structure Migration Patch topology Disease-induced mortality SI model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989420307150 |
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