Decision theory as an aid to private choice
A wise decider D uses the contents of his mind fully, accurately and efficiently. D's ideal decisions, i.e., those that best serve his interests, would be embedded in a comprehensive set of totally coherent judgments lodged in his mind. They would conform to the norms of statistical decision th...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2012-03-01
|
| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/11/11527/jdm11527.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797717497152012288 |
|---|---|
| author | Rex V. Brown |
| author_facet | Rex V. Brown |
| author_sort | Rex V. Brown |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A wise decider D uses the contents of his mind fully, accurately and efficiently. D's ideal decisions, i.e., those that best serve his interests, would be embedded in a comprehensive set of totally coherent judgments lodged in his mind. They would conform to the norms of statistical decision theory, which extracts quantitative judgments of fact and value from D's mind contents and checks them for coherence. However, the most practical way for D to approximate his ideal may not be with models that embody those norms, i.e., with applied decision theory (ADT). In practice, ADT can represent only some of D's judgments and those imperfectly. Quite different decision aid, including intuition, pattern recognition and cognitive vigilance (especially combined), typically outperform feasible ADT models---with some notable exceptions. However, decision theory training benefits D's informal decisions. ADT, both formal and informal, should become increasingly useful and widespread, as technical, cultural and institutional impediments are overcome. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T08:38:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d14e588aff594fb8bc6d5c4bbd1d9b76 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T08:38:10Z |
| publishDate | 2012-03-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-d14e588aff594fb8bc6d5c4bbd1d9b762023-09-02T17:08:28ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752012-03-0172207223Decision theory as an aid to private choiceRex V. BrownA wise decider D uses the contents of his mind fully, accurately and efficiently. D's ideal decisions, i.e., those that best serve his interests, would be embedded in a comprehensive set of totally coherent judgments lodged in his mind. They would conform to the norms of statistical decision theory, which extracts quantitative judgments of fact and value from D's mind contents and checks them for coherence. However, the most practical way for D to approximate his ideal may not be with models that embody those norms, i.e., with applied decision theory (ADT). In practice, ADT can represent only some of D's judgments and those imperfectly. Quite different decision aid, including intuition, pattern recognition and cognitive vigilance (especially combined), typically outperform feasible ADT models---with some notable exceptions. However, decision theory training benefits D's informal decisions. ADT, both formal and informal, should become increasingly useful and widespread, as technical, cultural and institutional impediments are overcome.http://journal.sjdm.org/11/11527/jdm11527.pdfdecision-aidingdecision theoryprivate choiceideal judgment.NAKeywords |
| spellingShingle | Rex V. Brown Decision theory as an aid to private choice Judgment and Decision Making decision-aiding decision theory private choice ideal judgment.NAKeywords |
| title | Decision theory as an aid to private choice |
| title_full | Decision theory as an aid to private choice |
| title_fullStr | Decision theory as an aid to private choice |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decision theory as an aid to private choice |
| title_short | Decision theory as an aid to private choice |
| title_sort | decision theory as an aid to private choice |
| topic | decision-aiding decision theory private choice ideal judgment.NAKeywords |
| url | http://journal.sjdm.org/11/11527/jdm11527.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rexvbrown decisiontheoryasanaidtoprivatechoice |