Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters.
People are optimistic about their prospects relative to others. However, existing studies can be difficult to interpret because outcomes are not zero-sum. For example, one person avoiding cancer does not necessitate that another person develops cancer. Ideally, optimism bias would be evaluated withi...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2015-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4564281?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1830417246207344640 |
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| author | Bradley C Love Łukasz Kopeć Olivia Guest |
| author_facet | Bradley C Love Łukasz Kopeć Olivia Guest |
| author_sort | Bradley C Love |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | People are optimistic about their prospects relative to others. However, existing studies can be difficult to interpret because outcomes are not zero-sum. For example, one person avoiding cancer does not necessitate that another person develops cancer. Ideally, optimism bias would be evaluated within a closed formal system to establish with certainty the extent of the bias and the associated environmental factors, such that optimism bias is demonstrated when a population is internally inconsistent. Accordingly, we asked NFL fans to predict how many games teams they liked and disliked would win in the 2015 season. Fans, like ESPN reporters assigned to cover a team, were overly optimistic about their team's prospects. The opposite pattern was found for teams that fans disliked. Optimism may flourish because year-to-year team results are marked by auto-correlation and regression to the group mean (i.e., good teams stay good, but bad teams improve). |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T21:38:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d151422f74ec4f678fe7744274c1d858 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T21:38:37Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-d151422f74ec4f678fe7744274c1d8582022-12-21T19:25:53ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032015-01-01109e013768510.1371/journal.pone.0137685Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters.Bradley C LoveŁukasz KopećOlivia GuestPeople are optimistic about their prospects relative to others. However, existing studies can be difficult to interpret because outcomes are not zero-sum. For example, one person avoiding cancer does not necessitate that another person develops cancer. Ideally, optimism bias would be evaluated within a closed formal system to establish with certainty the extent of the bias and the associated environmental factors, such that optimism bias is demonstrated when a population is internally inconsistent. Accordingly, we asked NFL fans to predict how many games teams they liked and disliked would win in the 2015 season. Fans, like ESPN reporters assigned to cover a team, were overly optimistic about their team's prospects. The opposite pattern was found for teams that fans disliked. Optimism may flourish because year-to-year team results are marked by auto-correlation and regression to the group mean (i.e., good teams stay good, but bad teams improve).http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4564281?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Bradley C Love Łukasz Kopeć Olivia Guest Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters. PLoS ONE |
| title | Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters. |
| title_full | Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters. |
| title_fullStr | Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters. |
| title_short | Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters. |
| title_sort | optimism bias in fans and sports reporters |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4564281?pdf=render |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bradleyclove optimismbiasinfansandsportsreporters AT łukaszkopec optimismbiasinfansandsportsreporters AT oliviaguest optimismbiasinfansandsportsreporters |