Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model
El Niño connects globally climate, ecosystems and socio-economic activities. Since 1980 this event has been tried to be predicted, but until now the statistical and dynamical models are insuffi cient. Thus, the objective of the present work was to explore using an autoregressive moving average mo...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
2013-04-01
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| Series: | Revista Peruana de Biología |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe/index.php/rpb/article/view/2164 |
| _version_ | 1819172893986127872 |
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| author | Carlos Quispe Sara Purca |
| author_facet | Carlos Quispe Sara Purca |
| author_sort | Carlos Quispe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | El Niño connects globally climate, ecosystems and socio-economic activities. Since 1980 this event has been tried to be predicted, but until now the statistical and dynamical models are insuffi cient. Thus, the objective of the present work was to explore using an autoregressive moving average model the effect of El Niño over the sea surface temperature (TSM) off the Peruvian coast. The work involved 5 stages: identifi cation, estimation, diagnostic checking, forecasting and validation. Simple and partial autocorrelation functions (FAC and FACP) were used to identify and reformulate the orders of the model parameters, as well as Akaike information criterium (AIC) and Schwarz criterium (SC) for the selection of the best models during the diagnostic checking. Among the main results the models ARIMA(12,0,11) were proposed, which simulated monthly conditions in agreement with the observed conditions off the Peruvian coast: cold conditions at the end of 2004, and neutral conditions at the beginning of 2005. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T20:14:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d18bc44e15124a08be7e2d31fa6422d8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-0837 1727-9933 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T20:14:26Z |
| publishDate | 2013-04-01 |
| publisher | Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista Peruana de Biología |
| spelling | doaj.art-d18bc44e15124a08be7e2d31fa6422d82022-12-21T18:13:59ZengUniversidad Nacional Mayor de San MarcosRevista Peruana de Biología1561-08371727-99332013-04-0114110911510.15381/rpb.v14i1.21641989Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average modelCarlos Quispe0Sara Purca1Centro de Investigaciones en Modelado Oceanográfi co y Biológico Pesquero (CIMOBP), Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Apdo. 22, Callao, Perú.Centro de Investigaciones en Modelado Oceanográfi co y Biológico Pesquero (CIMOBP), Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Apdo. 22, Callao, Perú.El Niño connects globally climate, ecosystems and socio-economic activities. Since 1980 this event has been tried to be predicted, but until now the statistical and dynamical models are insuffi cient. Thus, the objective of the present work was to explore using an autoregressive moving average model the effect of El Niño over the sea surface temperature (TSM) off the Peruvian coast. The work involved 5 stages: identifi cation, estimation, diagnostic checking, forecasting and validation. Simple and partial autocorrelation functions (FAC and FACP) were used to identify and reformulate the orders of the model parameters, as well as Akaike information criterium (AIC) and Schwarz criterium (SC) for the selection of the best models during the diagnostic checking. Among the main results the models ARIMA(12,0,11) were proposed, which simulated monthly conditions in agreement with the observed conditions off the Peruvian coast: cold conditions at the end of 2004, and neutral conditions at the beginning of 2005.http://revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe/index.php/rpb/article/view/2164ENOSmodelo ARIMAtemperatura superficial del marseries temporalesPerú. |
| spellingShingle | Carlos Quispe Sara Purca Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model Revista Peruana de Biología ENOS modelo ARIMA temperatura superficial del mar series temporales Perú. |
| title | Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model |
| title_full | Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model |
| title_fullStr | Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model |
| title_short | Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model |
| title_sort | forecast of sea surface temperature off the peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model |
| topic | ENOS modelo ARIMA temperatura superficial del mar series temporales Perú. |
| url | http://revistasinvestigacion.unmsm.edu.pe/index.php/rpb/article/view/2164 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT carlosquispe forecastofseasurfacetemperatureofftheperuviancoastusinganautoregressiveintegratedmovingaveragemodel AT sarapurca forecastofseasurfacetemperatureofftheperuviancoastusinganautoregressiveintegratedmovingaveragemodel |