Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry
The dynamic stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future global sea-level rise. Essential for improving projections of the ice sheet evolution is the understanding of the ongoing trends and accelerations of mass loss in the context of ice dynamics...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.741789/full |
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| author | Theresa Diener Theresa Diener Ingo Sasgen Cécile Agosta Johannes J. Fürst Matthias H. Braun Hannes Konrad Xavier Fettweis |
| author_facet | Theresa Diener Theresa Diener Ingo Sasgen Cécile Agosta Johannes J. Fürst Matthias H. Braun Hannes Konrad Xavier Fettweis |
| author_sort | Theresa Diener |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The dynamic stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future global sea-level rise. Essential for improving projections of the ice sheet evolution is the understanding of the ongoing trends and accelerations of mass loss in the context of ice dynamics. Here, we examine accelerations of mass change of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2002 to 2020 using data from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; 2002–2017) and its follow-on GRACE-FO (2018-present) satellite missions. By subtracting estimates of net snow accumulation provided by re-analysis data and regional climate models from GRACE/GRACE-FO mass changes, we isolate variations in ice-dynamic discharge and compare them to direct measurements based on the remote sensing of the surface-ice velocity (2002–2017). We show that variations in the GRACE/GRACE-FO time series are modulated by variations in regional snow accumulation caused by large-scale atmospheric circulation. We show for the first time that, after removal of these surface effects, accelerations of ice-dynamic discharge from GRACE/GRACE-FO agree well with those independently derived from surface-ice velocities. For 2002–2020, we recover a discharge acceleration of -5.3 ± 2.2 Gt yr−2 for the entire ice sheet; these increasing losses originate mainly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea Embayment regions (68%), with additional significant contributions from Dronning Maud Land (18%) and the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf region (13%). Under the assumption that the recovered rates and accelerations of mass loss persisted independent of any external forcing, Antarctica would contribute 7.6 ± 2.9 cm to global mean sea-level rise by the year 2100, more than two times the amount of 2.9 ± 0.6 cm obtained by linear extrapolation of current GRACE/GRACE-FO mass loss trends. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T01:48:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d197f2ba920a41febd80e963edd8a16f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T01:48:19Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-d197f2ba920a41febd80e963edd8a16f2022-12-21T18:43:00ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632021-12-01910.3389/feart.2021.741789741789Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite GravimetryTheresa Diener0Theresa Diener1Ingo Sasgen2Cécile Agosta3Johannes J. Fürst4Matthias H. Braun5Hannes Konrad6Xavier Fettweis7Department of Geography and Geosciences, Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, GermanyDivision of Glaciology, Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum Für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, GermanyDivision of Glaciology, Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum Für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, GermanyLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceDepartment of Geography and Geosciences, Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, GermanyDepartment of Geography and Geosciences, Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, GermanySatellite-based Climate Monitoring, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, GermanyDepartment of Geography, SPHERES research unit, University of Liège, Liège, BelgiumThe dynamic stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future global sea-level rise. Essential for improving projections of the ice sheet evolution is the understanding of the ongoing trends and accelerations of mass loss in the context of ice dynamics. Here, we examine accelerations of mass change of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2002 to 2020 using data from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; 2002–2017) and its follow-on GRACE-FO (2018-present) satellite missions. By subtracting estimates of net snow accumulation provided by re-analysis data and regional climate models from GRACE/GRACE-FO mass changes, we isolate variations in ice-dynamic discharge and compare them to direct measurements based on the remote sensing of the surface-ice velocity (2002–2017). We show that variations in the GRACE/GRACE-FO time series are modulated by variations in regional snow accumulation caused by large-scale atmospheric circulation. We show for the first time that, after removal of these surface effects, accelerations of ice-dynamic discharge from GRACE/GRACE-FO agree well with those independently derived from surface-ice velocities. For 2002–2020, we recover a discharge acceleration of -5.3 ± 2.2 Gt yr−2 for the entire ice sheet; these increasing losses originate mainly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea Embayment regions (68%), with additional significant contributions from Dronning Maud Land (18%) and the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf region (13%). Under the assumption that the recovered rates and accelerations of mass loss persisted independent of any external forcing, Antarctica would contribute 7.6 ± 2.9 cm to global mean sea-level rise by the year 2100, more than two times the amount of 2.9 ± 0.6 cm obtained by linear extrapolation of current GRACE/GRACE-FO mass loss trends.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.741789/fullAntarcticaGRACE/GRACE-FOice-dynamic dischargesurface mass balancesea-level rise (SLR)mass balance |
| spellingShingle | Theresa Diener Theresa Diener Ingo Sasgen Cécile Agosta Johannes J. Fürst Matthias H. Braun Hannes Konrad Xavier Fettweis Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry Frontiers in Earth Science Antarctica GRACE/GRACE-FO ice-dynamic discharge surface mass balance sea-level rise (SLR) mass balance |
| title | Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry |
| title_full | Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry |
| title_fullStr | Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry |
| title_full_unstemmed | Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry |
| title_short | Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry |
| title_sort | acceleration of dynamic ice loss in antarctica from satellite gravimetry |
| topic | Antarctica GRACE/GRACE-FO ice-dynamic discharge surface mass balance sea-level rise (SLR) mass balance |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.741789/full |
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