Possible Lagged Impact of the Arctic Sea Ice in Barents–Kara Seas on June Precipitation in Eastern China
Based on the Hadley Centre sea ice concentration, the ERA5 reanalysis, and three precipitation datasets, the possible lagged impact of the Barents–Kara sea ice on June rainfall across China is investigated. Using the singular value decomposition, it is revealed that the state of sea ice concentratio...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-04-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.886192/full |
| _version_ | 1828767205070733312 |
|---|---|
| author | Huidi Yang Huidi Yang Jian Rao Jian Rao Haishan Chen Haishan Chen |
| author_facet | Huidi Yang Huidi Yang Jian Rao Jian Rao Haishan Chen Haishan Chen |
| author_sort | Huidi Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Based on the Hadley Centre sea ice concentration, the ERA5 reanalysis, and three precipitation datasets, the possible lagged impact of the Barents–Kara sea ice on June rainfall across China is investigated. Using the singular value decomposition, it is revealed that the state of sea ice concentration in Barents–Kara Seas from November to December is closely related to regional precipitation in June, which is most evident across the Yangtze–Huai Rivers Valley and South China. Possible pathways from preceding Arctic sea ice concentration to June precipitation are examined and discussed. First, the sea ice concentration usually has a long memory, which exerts a long-lasting and lagged impact, although the sea ice anomaly amplitude gradually weakens from early winter to early summer. Second, an increase in Barents–Kara sea ice usually corresponds to a stronger stratospheric polar vortex in midwinter by suppressing extratropical wave activities, which is projected to the positive phase of northern annular mode (NAM). Strong vortex gradually recovers to its normal state and even weakens in spring, which corresponds to the negative NAM response from spring to early summer. Third, the stratospheric anomalies associated with the Barents–Kara sea ice variations propagate downward. Due to the out-of-phase relationship between the lower and upper stratospheric circulation anomalies after midwinter, westerly anomalies in midwinter are followed by easterly anomalies in later months in the circumpolar region, consistent with the positive NAM response in midwinter, negative NAM response in spring, and a wave train-like response in early summer to Barents–Kara sea ice increase (and vice versa). The observed lagged impact of Barents–Kara sea ice on China rainfall in June is limitedly simulated in the ten CMIP6 models used in this study. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T07:21:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d19d252d4e544327bc9c262eb6f4f99d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T07:21:29Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-d19d252d4e544327bc9c262eb6f4f99d2022-12-22T01:16:05ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632022-04-011010.3389/feart.2022.886192886192Possible Lagged Impact of the Arctic Sea Ice in Barents–Kara Seas on June Precipitation in Eastern ChinaHuidi Yang0Huidi Yang1Jian Rao2Jian Rao3Haishan Chen4Haishan Chen5Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/ILCEC/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/ILCEC/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/ILCEC/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaBased on the Hadley Centre sea ice concentration, the ERA5 reanalysis, and three precipitation datasets, the possible lagged impact of the Barents–Kara sea ice on June rainfall across China is investigated. Using the singular value decomposition, it is revealed that the state of sea ice concentration in Barents–Kara Seas from November to December is closely related to regional precipitation in June, which is most evident across the Yangtze–Huai Rivers Valley and South China. Possible pathways from preceding Arctic sea ice concentration to June precipitation are examined and discussed. First, the sea ice concentration usually has a long memory, which exerts a long-lasting and lagged impact, although the sea ice anomaly amplitude gradually weakens from early winter to early summer. Second, an increase in Barents–Kara sea ice usually corresponds to a stronger stratospheric polar vortex in midwinter by suppressing extratropical wave activities, which is projected to the positive phase of northern annular mode (NAM). Strong vortex gradually recovers to its normal state and even weakens in spring, which corresponds to the negative NAM response from spring to early summer. Third, the stratospheric anomalies associated with the Barents–Kara sea ice variations propagate downward. Due to the out-of-phase relationship between the lower and upper stratospheric circulation anomalies after midwinter, westerly anomalies in midwinter are followed by easterly anomalies in later months in the circumpolar region, consistent with the positive NAM response in midwinter, negative NAM response in spring, and a wave train-like response in early summer to Barents–Kara sea ice increase (and vice versa). The observed lagged impact of Barents–Kara sea ice on China rainfall in June is limitedly simulated in the ten CMIP6 models used in this study.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.886192/fullBarents–Kara seassea iceChina rainfallsingular value decompositionCMIP6 |
| spellingShingle | Huidi Yang Huidi Yang Jian Rao Jian Rao Haishan Chen Haishan Chen Possible Lagged Impact of the Arctic Sea Ice in Barents–Kara Seas on June Precipitation in Eastern China Frontiers in Earth Science Barents–Kara seas sea ice China rainfall singular value decomposition CMIP6 |
| title | Possible Lagged Impact of the Arctic Sea Ice in Barents–Kara Seas on June Precipitation in Eastern China |
| title_full | Possible Lagged Impact of the Arctic Sea Ice in Barents–Kara Seas on June Precipitation in Eastern China |
| title_fullStr | Possible Lagged Impact of the Arctic Sea Ice in Barents–Kara Seas on June Precipitation in Eastern China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Possible Lagged Impact of the Arctic Sea Ice in Barents–Kara Seas on June Precipitation in Eastern China |
| title_short | Possible Lagged Impact of the Arctic Sea Ice in Barents–Kara Seas on June Precipitation in Eastern China |
| title_sort | possible lagged impact of the arctic sea ice in barents kara seas on june precipitation in eastern china |
| topic | Barents–Kara seas sea ice China rainfall singular value decomposition CMIP6 |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.886192/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT huidiyang possiblelaggedimpactofthearcticseaiceinbarentskaraseasonjuneprecipitationineasternchina AT huidiyang possiblelaggedimpactofthearcticseaiceinbarentskaraseasonjuneprecipitationineasternchina AT jianrao possiblelaggedimpactofthearcticseaiceinbarentskaraseasonjuneprecipitationineasternchina AT jianrao possiblelaggedimpactofthearcticseaiceinbarentskaraseasonjuneprecipitationineasternchina AT haishanchen possiblelaggedimpactofthearcticseaiceinbarentskaraseasonjuneprecipitationineasternchina AT haishanchen possiblelaggedimpactofthearcticseaiceinbarentskaraseasonjuneprecipitationineasternchina |