Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing.
During epidemics people may reduce their social and economic activity to lower their risk of infection. Such social distancing strategies will depend on information about the course of the epidemic but also on when they expect the epidemic to end, for instance due to vaccination. Typically it is dif...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0288963&type=printable |
| _version_ | 1797637483488346112 |
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| author | Simon K Schnyder John J Molina Ryoichi Yamamoto Matthew S Turner |
| author_facet | Simon K Schnyder John J Molina Ryoichi Yamamoto Matthew S Turner |
| author_sort | Simon K Schnyder |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | During epidemics people may reduce their social and economic activity to lower their risk of infection. Such social distancing strategies will depend on information about the course of the epidemic but also on when they expect the epidemic to end, for instance due to vaccination. Typically it is difficult to make optimal decisions, because the available information is incomplete and uncertain. Here, we show how optimal decision-making depends on information about vaccination timing in a differential game in which individual decision-making gives rise to Nash equilibria, and the arrival of the vaccine is described by a probability distribution. We predict stronger social distancing the earlier the vaccination is expected and also the more sharply peaked its probability distribution. In particular, equilibrium social distancing only meaningfully deviates from the no-vaccination equilibrium course if the vaccine is expected to arrive before the epidemic would have run its course. We demonstrate how the probability distribution of the vaccination time acts as a generalised form of discounting, with the special case of an exponential vaccination time distribution directly corresponding to regular exponential discounting. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:50:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d1ae8aabf152407a9507a0fc0ca7367f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:50:04Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-d1ae8aabf152407a9507a0fc0ca7367f2023-11-04T05:33:37ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032023-01-01187e028896310.1371/journal.pone.0288963Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing.Simon K SchnyderJohn J MolinaRyoichi YamamotoMatthew S TurnerDuring epidemics people may reduce their social and economic activity to lower their risk of infection. Such social distancing strategies will depend on information about the course of the epidemic but also on when they expect the epidemic to end, for instance due to vaccination. Typically it is difficult to make optimal decisions, because the available information is incomplete and uncertain. Here, we show how optimal decision-making depends on information about vaccination timing in a differential game in which individual decision-making gives rise to Nash equilibria, and the arrival of the vaccine is described by a probability distribution. We predict stronger social distancing the earlier the vaccination is expected and also the more sharply peaked its probability distribution. In particular, equilibrium social distancing only meaningfully deviates from the no-vaccination equilibrium course if the vaccine is expected to arrive before the epidemic would have run its course. We demonstrate how the probability distribution of the vaccination time acts as a generalised form of discounting, with the special case of an exponential vaccination time distribution directly corresponding to regular exponential discounting.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0288963&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Simon K Schnyder John J Molina Ryoichi Yamamoto Matthew S Turner Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing. PLoS ONE |
| title | Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing. |
| title_full | Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing. |
| title_fullStr | Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing. |
| title_short | Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing. |
| title_sort | rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0288963&type=printable |
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