Development of flood hazard index under climate change scenarios in Java Island
Climate change-induced alterations in temperature and precipitation patterns pose a significant threat to flood risk worldwide. This research focuses on Java Island and presents a method to develop a flood hazard index map considering various future climate change scenarios. To simulate flood charac...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Progress in Disaster Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590061723000297 |
| _version_ | 1797394847526551552 |
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| author | Mohammad Farid Yeremia Immanuel Sihombing Arno Adi Kuntoro Mohammad Bagus Adityawan Muhammad Marshal Syuhada Nurul Fajar Januriyadi Idham Riyando Moe Ardhi Nurhakim |
| author_facet | Mohammad Farid Yeremia Immanuel Sihombing Arno Adi Kuntoro Mohammad Bagus Adityawan Muhammad Marshal Syuhada Nurul Fajar Januriyadi Idham Riyando Moe Ardhi Nurhakim |
| author_sort | Mohammad Farid |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change-induced alterations in temperature and precipitation patterns pose a significant threat to flood risk worldwide. This research focuses on Java Island and presents a method to develop a flood hazard index map considering various future climate change scenarios. To simulate flood characteristics for various scenarios, an RRI (Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation) model was calibrated and validated using six different flood events in three basin areas. Furthermore, the baseline, historical 100-year return period, was compared against climate change scenarios representing near-future (2015–2060) and far-future (2061–2100) cycles, integrating six bias-corrected climate models under the SSP2.45 and SSP5.85 scenarios. This study reveals that the maximum predicted flood extents under both SSP2.45 and SSP5.85 scenarios surpass the baseline across all cycles, with propagation areas expanding with each scenario and cycle. Notably, the worst-case hazard score for all cycles and scenarios occurred in DKI Jakarta and Central Java due to high rainfall concentration and population density. In the case of DKI Jakarta, the hazard score was between 0.61 and 0.76, while, for Central Java, the hazard score was between 0.61 and 0.73. These findings are important for guiding non-governmental and governmental institutions in making robust flood mitigation policies to safeguard vulnerable communities in Java Island. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:25:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d1e5d786e52c491daa1a87c2c70c7080 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2590-0617 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:25:43Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Progress in Disaster Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-d1e5d786e52c491daa1a87c2c70c70802023-12-12T04:35:39ZengElsevierProgress in Disaster Science2590-06172023-12-0120100302Development of flood hazard index under climate change scenarios in Java IslandMohammad Farid0Yeremia Immanuel Sihombing1Arno Adi Kuntoro2Mohammad Bagus Adityawan3Muhammad Marshal Syuhada4Nurul Fajar Januriyadi5Idham Riyando Moe6Ardhi Nurhakim7Center for Coastal and Marine Development, Institute for Science and Technology Development, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha No.10, Kota Bandung 40132, IndonesiaMaster Program of Civil Engineering,Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha No.10, Kota Bandung, 40132, Indonesia; Corresponding author.Center for Water Resources Development, Institute for Science and Technology Development, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha No.10, Kota Bandung 40132, IndonesiaCenter for Water Resources Development, Institute for Science and Technology Development, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha No.10, Kota Bandung 40132, IndonesiaMaster Program of Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha No.10, Kota Bandung, 40132, IndonesiaDepartment of Civil Engineering, Pertamina University, Jalan Teuku Nyak Arief, RT.7/RW.8, Simprug, Kec. Kby. Lama, Kota Jakarta Selatan, 12220, IndonesiaDirectorate General of Water Resources, Ministry of Public Works and Housing, Jalan Pattimura No. 20, Ke-bayoran Baru, Jakarta Selatan 12110, IndonesiaMaster Program of Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jalan Ganesha No.10, Kota Bandung, 40132, IndonesiaClimate change-induced alterations in temperature and precipitation patterns pose a significant threat to flood risk worldwide. This research focuses on Java Island and presents a method to develop a flood hazard index map considering various future climate change scenarios. To simulate flood characteristics for various scenarios, an RRI (Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation) model was calibrated and validated using six different flood events in three basin areas. Furthermore, the baseline, historical 100-year return period, was compared against climate change scenarios representing near-future (2015–2060) and far-future (2061–2100) cycles, integrating six bias-corrected climate models under the SSP2.45 and SSP5.85 scenarios. This study reveals that the maximum predicted flood extents under both SSP2.45 and SSP5.85 scenarios surpass the baseline across all cycles, with propagation areas expanding with each scenario and cycle. Notably, the worst-case hazard score for all cycles and scenarios occurred in DKI Jakarta and Central Java due to high rainfall concentration and population density. In the case of DKI Jakarta, the hazard score was between 0.61 and 0.76, while, for Central Java, the hazard score was between 0.61 and 0.73. These findings are important for guiding non-governmental and governmental institutions in making robust flood mitigation policies to safeguard vulnerable communities in Java Island.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590061723000297Flood inundationClimate changeRRI modelJava Island |
| spellingShingle | Mohammad Farid Yeremia Immanuel Sihombing Arno Adi Kuntoro Mohammad Bagus Adityawan Muhammad Marshal Syuhada Nurul Fajar Januriyadi Idham Riyando Moe Ardhi Nurhakim Development of flood hazard index under climate change scenarios in Java Island Progress in Disaster Science Flood inundation Climate change RRI model Java Island |
| title | Development of flood hazard index under climate change scenarios in Java Island |
| title_full | Development of flood hazard index under climate change scenarios in Java Island |
| title_fullStr | Development of flood hazard index under climate change scenarios in Java Island |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of flood hazard index under climate change scenarios in Java Island |
| title_short | Development of flood hazard index under climate change scenarios in Java Island |
| title_sort | development of flood hazard index under climate change scenarios in java island |
| topic | Flood inundation Climate change RRI model Java Island |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590061723000297 |
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