The Effect of Output Uncertainty on Economic Growth
The long run economic growth is one of the main economic requirements of countries in order to attain comprehensive development and increase the social welfare. This research aims to examine the effect of output uncertainty on economic growth for Iran during 1965-2011. Output uncertainty, gross dome...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
| Published: |
Tarbiat Modares University
2016-11-01
|
| Series: | پژوهشهای اقتصادی |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-3069-en.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797803288770379776 |
|---|---|
| author | Seyyed Foad Moosavi Azadeh Mehrabian |
| author_facet | Seyyed Foad Moosavi Azadeh Mehrabian |
| author_sort | Seyyed Foad Moosavi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The long run economic growth is one of the main economic requirements of countries in order to attain comprehensive development and increase the social welfare. This research aims to examine the effect of output uncertainty on economic growth for Iran during 1965-2011. Output uncertainty, gross domestic product, inflation and population are variables under study. In this paper, first, output uncertainty is computed using a generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and then the effect of output uncertainty on economic growth is estimated though co-integration test and vector auto-regression (VAR). The findings show that output uncertainty reduces the long run economic growth in Iran. This result is in accordance with Bernanke (1983) and Pindyck (1991) studies. They concluded that increase in output uncertainty leads to decrease in both investment and long run economic growth. The findings also indicate the negative and positive effects of inflation and population growth, respectively, on the long run economic growth in Iran. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:18:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d20800ae28cb453389b802769d3e3861 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1735-6768 2980-7832 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:18:35Z |
| publishDate | 2016-11-01 |
| publisher | Tarbiat Modares University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | پژوهشهای اقتصادی |
| spelling | doaj.art-d20800ae28cb453389b802769d3e38612023-06-15T20:21:58ZfasTarbiat Modares Universityپژوهشهای اقتصادی1735-67682980-78322016-11-01163209230The Effect of Output Uncertainty on Economic GrowthSeyyed Foad Moosavi0Azadeh Mehrabian1 MA. in Economics, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch Assistant Professor of Economics. Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch The long run economic growth is one of the main economic requirements of countries in order to attain comprehensive development and increase the social welfare. This research aims to examine the effect of output uncertainty on economic growth for Iran during 1965-2011. Output uncertainty, gross domestic product, inflation and population are variables under study. In this paper, first, output uncertainty is computed using a generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and then the effect of output uncertainty on economic growth is estimated though co-integration test and vector auto-regression (VAR). The findings show that output uncertainty reduces the long run economic growth in Iran. This result is in accordance with Bernanke (1983) and Pindyck (1991) studies. They concluded that increase in output uncertainty leads to decrease in both investment and long run economic growth. The findings also indicate the negative and positive effects of inflation and population growth, respectively, on the long run economic growth in Iran.http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-3069-en.pdfproduction uncertaintyeconomic growthgarch modelvar modelco-integration test |
| spellingShingle | Seyyed Foad Moosavi Azadeh Mehrabian The Effect of Output Uncertainty on Economic Growth پژوهشهای اقتصادی production uncertainty economic growth garch model var model co-integration test |
| title | The Effect of Output Uncertainty on Economic Growth |
| title_full | The Effect of Output Uncertainty on Economic Growth |
| title_fullStr | The Effect of Output Uncertainty on Economic Growth |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Effect of Output Uncertainty on Economic Growth |
| title_short | The Effect of Output Uncertainty on Economic Growth |
| title_sort | effect of output uncertainty on economic growth |
| topic | production uncertainty economic growth garch model var model co-integration test |
| url | http://ecor.modares.ac.ir/article-18-3069-en.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT seyyedfoadmoosavi theeffectofoutputuncertaintyoneconomicgrowth AT azadehmehrabian theeffectofoutputuncertaintyoneconomicgrowth AT seyyedfoadmoosavi effectofoutputuncertaintyoneconomicgrowth AT azadehmehrabian effectofoutputuncertaintyoneconomicgrowth |