An assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the electric grid in the UK
To achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the world economy needs to be significantly decarbonized. Among all sectors, the decarbonization of heat is likely to incorporate a significant electronification using electric heat pumps, placing additional strain on electric grid infrastructure in countries l...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Energy Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722023393 |
| _version_ | 1797901899091935232 |
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| author | Meng Zhang Michael-Allan Millar Zhibin Yu James Yu |
| author_facet | Meng Zhang Michael-Allan Millar Zhibin Yu James Yu |
| author_sort | Meng Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the world economy needs to be significantly decarbonized. Among all sectors, the decarbonization of heat is likely to incorporate a significant electronification using electric heat pumps, placing additional strain on electric grid infrastructure in countries like the UK. In this paper, we present an assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the grid in the UK in 2050 when the net zero is reached. A high-resolution heat demand forecasting model is developed to estimate hourly heat demand at the national level and it is validated using published historical data. The validated model is then used to predict the hourly heat demand of the UK in 2050. The impact of heat electrification is then analysed based on several different scenarios. The results show that heat decarbonization through electrification will have a significant impact on the grid. In the case of extreme global warming, both hourly peak demand and annual total heat demand will drop by about 45% in 2050, compared with published data in 2010. In the case of 100% electrification with no global warming, the total annual electricity demand for heating is 109.4 TWh. The hourly peak demand of electricity will increase from 96.6 GW to 146.7 GW, which requires an increase of electricity generation capacity by around 50%. It is however economically infeasible and unviable to build such a huge new generation capacity that would only be used in winter when the peak heat demand peaks but will be switched off during summer. Hence, mitigation measures such as heat storage will play a vital role in balancing power generation and consumption, as well as reducing the required new generation capacity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T09:09:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d24a045a1ec04f85b1a9f783c1c4229e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2352-4847 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T09:09:16Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-d24a045a1ec04f85b1a9f783c1c4229e2023-02-21T05:14:23ZengElsevierEnergy Reports2352-48472022-11-0181493414946An assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the electric grid in the UKMeng Zhang0Michael-Allan Millar1Zhibin Yu2James Yu3James Watt School of Engineering, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UKJames Watt School of Engineering, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UKJames Watt School of Engineering, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK; Corresponding author.Scottish Power, Glasgow, G2 8DQ, UKTo achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the world economy needs to be significantly decarbonized. Among all sectors, the decarbonization of heat is likely to incorporate a significant electronification using electric heat pumps, placing additional strain on electric grid infrastructure in countries like the UK. In this paper, we present an assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the grid in the UK in 2050 when the net zero is reached. A high-resolution heat demand forecasting model is developed to estimate hourly heat demand at the national level and it is validated using published historical data. The validated model is then used to predict the hourly heat demand of the UK in 2050. The impact of heat electrification is then analysed based on several different scenarios. The results show that heat decarbonization through electrification will have a significant impact on the grid. In the case of extreme global warming, both hourly peak demand and annual total heat demand will drop by about 45% in 2050, compared with published data in 2010. In the case of 100% electrification with no global warming, the total annual electricity demand for heating is 109.4 TWh. The hourly peak demand of electricity will increase from 96.6 GW to 146.7 GW, which requires an increase of electricity generation capacity by around 50%. It is however economically infeasible and unviable to build such a huge new generation capacity that would only be used in winter when the peak heat demand peaks but will be switched off during summer. Hence, mitigation measures such as heat storage will play a vital role in balancing power generation and consumption, as well as reducing the required new generation capacity.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722023393Heating demand forecastElectrification of heatIntegrated energy system |
| spellingShingle | Meng Zhang Michael-Allan Millar Zhibin Yu James Yu An assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the electric grid in the UK Energy Reports Heating demand forecast Electrification of heat Integrated energy system |
| title | An assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the electric grid in the UK |
| title_full | An assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the electric grid in the UK |
| title_fullStr | An assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the electric grid in the UK |
| title_full_unstemmed | An assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the electric grid in the UK |
| title_short | An assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the electric grid in the UK |
| title_sort | assessment of the impacts of heat electrification on the electric grid in the uk |
| topic | Heating demand forecast Electrification of heat Integrated energy system |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722023393 |
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