A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis
Abstract Background and aim There is lack of 30-day hospital readmission prediction score in patients with liver cirrhosis and SBP. The aim of this study is to recognize factors capable of predicting 30-day readmission and to develop a readmission risk score in patients with SBP. Methods This study...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-05-01
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| Series: | European Journal of Medical Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40001-023-01126-2 |
| _version_ | 1797818170665336832 |
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| author | Nasser Mousa Ahmed Abdel-Razik Sherif Elbaz Mohamed Salah Mohammed Abdelaziz Alaa Habib Ahmed Deib Abdel-Naser Gadallah Niveen El-wakeel Waleed Eldars Narmin effat Ola El-Emam Khaled Taha Alaa Elmetwalli Eman Mousa Dina Elhammady |
| author_facet | Nasser Mousa Ahmed Abdel-Razik Sherif Elbaz Mohamed Salah Mohammed Abdelaziz Alaa Habib Ahmed Deib Abdel-Naser Gadallah Niveen El-wakeel Waleed Eldars Narmin effat Ola El-Emam Khaled Taha Alaa Elmetwalli Eman Mousa Dina Elhammady |
| author_sort | Nasser Mousa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background and aim There is lack of 30-day hospital readmission prediction score in patients with liver cirrhosis and SBP. The aim of this study is to recognize factors capable of predicting 30-day readmission and to develop a readmission risk score in patients with SBP. Methods This study prospectively examined the 30-day hospital readmission for patients previously discharged with a diagnosis of SBP. Based on index hospitalization variables, a multivariable logistic regression model was implemented to recognize predictors of patient hospital readmission within 30 days. Consequently, Mousa readmission risk score was established to predict 30-day hospital readmission. Results Of 475 patients hospitalized with SBP, 400 patients were included in this study. The 30-day readmission rate was 26.5%, with 16.03% of patients readmitted with SBP. Age ≥ 60, MELD > 15, serum bilirubin > 1.5 mg/dL, creatinine > 1.2 mg/dL, INR > 1.4, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, platelets count ≤ 74 (103/dL) were found to be independent predictors of 30-day readmission. Incorporating these predictors, Mousa readmission score was established to predict 30-day patient readmissions. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that at a cutoff value ≥ 4, Mousa score had optimum discriminative power for predicting the readmission in SBP with sensitivity 90.6% and specificity 92.9%. However, at cutoff value ≥ 6 the sensitivity and specificity were 77.4% and 99.7%, respectively, while a cutoff value ≥ 2 had sensitivity of 99.1% and specificity of 31.6%. Conclusions The 30-day readmission rate of SBP was 25.6%. With the suggested simple risk assessment Mousa score, patients at high risk for early readmission can be easily identified so as to possibly prevent poorer outcomes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:04:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d2630251f757402aadba42402e1de300 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2047-783X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T09:04:03Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | European Journal of Medical Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-d2630251f757402aadba42402e1de3002023-05-28T11:11:42ZengBMCEuropean Journal of Medical Research2047-783X2023-05-0128111010.1186/s40001-023-01126-2A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitisNasser Mousa0Ahmed Abdel-Razik1Sherif Elbaz2Mohamed Salah3Mohammed Abdelaziz4Alaa Habib5Ahmed Deib6Abdel-Naser Gadallah7Niveen El-wakeel8Waleed Eldars9Narmin effat10Ola El-Emam11Khaled Taha12Alaa Elmetwalli13Eman Mousa14Dina Elhammady15Tropical Medicine Department, Mansoura UniversityTropical Medicine Department, Mansoura UniversityEndemic Diseases and Gastroenterology Department, Aswan UniversityTropical Medicine Department, Mansoura UniversityTropical Medicine Department, Mansoura UniversityInternal Medicine Department, Mansoura UniversityInternal Medicine Department, Mansoura UniversityInternal Medicine Department, Menuofia UniversityMedical Microbiology and Immunology Department, Mansoura UniversityMedical Microbiology and Immunology Department, Mansoura UniversityClinical Pathology Department, Mansoura UniversityClinical Pathology Department, Mansoura UniversityInternal Medicine Department, Mansoura UniversityDepartment of Clinical Trial Research Unit and Drug Discovery, Egyptian Liver Research Institute and Hospital (ELRIAH)Faculty of Dentistry, Mansoura UniversityTropical Medicine Department, Mansoura UniversityAbstract Background and aim There is lack of 30-day hospital readmission prediction score in patients with liver cirrhosis and SBP. The aim of this study is to recognize factors capable of predicting 30-day readmission and to develop a readmission risk score in patients with SBP. Methods This study prospectively examined the 30-day hospital readmission for patients previously discharged with a diagnosis of SBP. Based on index hospitalization variables, a multivariable logistic regression model was implemented to recognize predictors of patient hospital readmission within 30 days. Consequently, Mousa readmission risk score was established to predict 30-day hospital readmission. Results Of 475 patients hospitalized with SBP, 400 patients were included in this study. The 30-day readmission rate was 26.5%, with 16.03% of patients readmitted with SBP. Age ≥ 60, MELD > 15, serum bilirubin > 1.5 mg/dL, creatinine > 1.2 mg/dL, INR > 1.4, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, platelets count ≤ 74 (103/dL) were found to be independent predictors of 30-day readmission. Incorporating these predictors, Mousa readmission score was established to predict 30-day patient readmissions. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that at a cutoff value ≥ 4, Mousa score had optimum discriminative power for predicting the readmission in SBP with sensitivity 90.6% and specificity 92.9%. However, at cutoff value ≥ 6 the sensitivity and specificity were 77.4% and 99.7%, respectively, while a cutoff value ≥ 2 had sensitivity of 99.1% and specificity of 31.6%. Conclusions The 30-day readmission rate of SBP was 25.6%. With the suggested simple risk assessment Mousa score, patients at high risk for early readmission can be easily identified so as to possibly prevent poorer outcomes.https://doi.org/10.1186/s40001-023-01126-2Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis30-day readmission rateLiver cirrhosis |
| spellingShingle | Nasser Mousa Ahmed Abdel-Razik Sherif Elbaz Mohamed Salah Mohammed Abdelaziz Alaa Habib Ahmed Deib Abdel-Naser Gadallah Niveen El-wakeel Waleed Eldars Narmin effat Ola El-Emam Khaled Taha Alaa Elmetwalli Eman Mousa Dina Elhammady A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis European Journal of Medical Research Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis 30-day readmission rate Liver cirrhosis |
| title | A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
| title_full | A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
| title_fullStr | A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
| title_full_unstemmed | A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
| title_short | A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
| title_sort | risk score to predict 30 day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
| topic | Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis 30-day readmission rate Liver cirrhosis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s40001-023-01126-2 |
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