Simulated and projected relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and winter Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models
Interdecadal change in the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been documented by many studies. This study, utilizing the model outputs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), evaluates the ability of the coupled mo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2018-09-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters |
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| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2018.1512356 |
| _version_ | 1831810047620939776 |
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| author | Shuo LI Sheng-Ping HE Fei LI Hui-Jun WANG |
| author_facet | Shuo LI Sheng-Ping HE Fei LI Hui-Jun WANG |
| author_sort | Shuo LI |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Interdecadal change in the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been documented by many studies. This study, utilizing the model outputs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), evaluates the ability of the coupled models in CMIP5 to capture the intensified relationship between the EAWM and winter AO since the 1980s, and further projects the evolution of the EAWM–AO relationship during the 21st century. It is found that the observed evolution of the EAWM–AO relationship can be reproduced well by some coupled models (e.g., GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H, and MPI-ESM-MR). The coupled models’ simulations indicate that the impact of winter AO on the EAWM-related circulation and East Asian winter temperature has strengthened since the 1980s. Such interdecadal change in the EAWM–AO relationship is attributed to the intensified propagation of stationary planetary waves associated with winter AO. Projections under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios suggest that the EAWM–AO relationship is significant before the 2030s and after the early 2070s, and insignificant during the 2060s, but uncertain from the 2030s to the 2050s. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T20:50:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d2909e39c41249859a906cccb44ee9c8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1674-2834 2376-6123 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T20:50:38Z |
| publishDate | 2018-09-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-d2909e39c41249859a906cccb44ee9c82022-12-21T18:13:05ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters1674-28342376-61232018-09-0111541742410.1080/16742834.2018.15123561512356Simulated and projected relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and winter Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 modelsShuo LI0Sheng-Ping HE1Fei LI2Hui-Jun WANG3Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesNILU – Norwegian Institute for Air ResearchNanjing University for Information Science and TechnologyInterdecadal change in the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been documented by many studies. This study, utilizing the model outputs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), evaluates the ability of the coupled models in CMIP5 to capture the intensified relationship between the EAWM and winter AO since the 1980s, and further projects the evolution of the EAWM–AO relationship during the 21st century. It is found that the observed evolution of the EAWM–AO relationship can be reproduced well by some coupled models (e.g., GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H, and MPI-ESM-MR). The coupled models’ simulations indicate that the impact of winter AO on the EAWM-related circulation and East Asian winter temperature has strengthened since the 1980s. Such interdecadal change in the EAWM–AO relationship is attributed to the intensified propagation of stationary planetary waves associated with winter AO. Projections under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios suggest that the EAWM–AO relationship is significant before the 2030s and after the early 2070s, and insignificant during the 2060s, but uncertain from the 2030s to the 2050s.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2018.1512356East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM)winter Arctic Oscillation (AO)CMIP5interdecadal change |
| spellingShingle | Shuo LI Sheng-Ping HE Fei LI Hui-Jun WANG Simulated and projected relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and winter Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) CMIP5 interdecadal change |
| title | Simulated and projected relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and winter Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models |
| title_full | Simulated and projected relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and winter Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models |
| title_fullStr | Simulated and projected relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and winter Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulated and projected relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and winter Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models |
| title_short | Simulated and projected relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and winter Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models |
| title_sort | simulated and projected relationship between the east asian winter monsoon and winter arctic oscillation in cmip5 models |
| topic | East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) CMIP5 interdecadal change |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2018.1512356 |
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