Vulnerability of elevation-restricted endemic birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) to climate change
ABSTRACTAnimals endemic to tropical mountains are known to be especially vulnerable to climate change. The Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) is a geographically isolated mountain chain and global biodiversity hotspot, home to more than 50 endemic bird species. We used eBird community s...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Neotropical Biodiversity |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23766808.2023.2261196 |
| _version_ | 1797393363883786240 |
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| author | Zhen Liu Luis Sandoval Lauren B. Sherman Andrew M. Wilson |
| author_facet | Zhen Liu Luis Sandoval Lauren B. Sherman Andrew M. Wilson |
| author_sort | Zhen Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACTAnimals endemic to tropical mountains are known to be especially vulnerable to climate change. The Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) is a geographically isolated mountain chain and global biodiversity hotspot, home to more than 50 endemic bird species. We used eBird community science observations to predict the distributions of a suite of 48 of these endemic birds in 2006–2015, and in 2070, under four climate change scenarios. Species distributions were predicted using program Maxent, incorporating elevation, satellite derived habitat data, and WorldClim climate variables. Model fit, as assessed by Area under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUC), was very high for most species, ranging from 0.877 to 0.992 (mean of 0.94). We found that most species are predicted to undergo range contractions by 2070, with a mean of 15% under modest climate change (RCP 2.6) up to a mean of 40% under more severe climate change (RCP 8.5). Most of the current ranges of these species are within existing protected areas (average of 59% in 2006–2015), and with prospective range contractions, the importance of these protected areas is forecast to increase. We suggest that these predicted range declines should elevate conservation concerns for this suite of species, and vigilance, in the form of better population monitoring, is urgently needed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:02:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d2c569609bde456e99238a9d2749c01b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2376-6808 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:02:26Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Neotropical Biodiversity |
| spelling | doaj.art-d2c569609bde456e99238a9d2749c01b2023-12-12T17:10:24ZengTaylor & Francis GroupNeotropical Biodiversity2376-68082023-12-019111512710.1080/23766808.2023.2261196Vulnerability of elevation-restricted endemic birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) to climate changeZhen Liu0Luis Sandoval1Lauren B. Sherman2Andrew M. Wilson3Environmental Studies department, Gettysburg College, Gettysburg, PA, USAEscuela de Biología, Ciudad Universitaria Rodrígo Facio, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa RicaEnvironmental Studies department, Gettysburg College, Gettysburg, PA, USAEnvironmental Studies department, Gettysburg College, Gettysburg, PA, USAABSTRACTAnimals endemic to tropical mountains are known to be especially vulnerable to climate change. The Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) is a geographically isolated mountain chain and global biodiversity hotspot, home to more than 50 endemic bird species. We used eBird community science observations to predict the distributions of a suite of 48 of these endemic birds in 2006–2015, and in 2070, under four climate change scenarios. Species distributions were predicted using program Maxent, incorporating elevation, satellite derived habitat data, and WorldClim climate variables. Model fit, as assessed by Area under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUC), was very high for most species, ranging from 0.877 to 0.992 (mean of 0.94). We found that most species are predicted to undergo range contractions by 2070, with a mean of 15% under modest climate change (RCP 2.6) up to a mean of 40% under more severe climate change (RCP 8.5). Most of the current ranges of these species are within existing protected areas (average of 59% in 2006–2015), and with prospective range contractions, the importance of these protected areas is forecast to increase. We suggest that these predicted range declines should elevate conservation concerns for this suite of species, and vigilance, in the form of better population monitoring, is urgently needed.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23766808.2023.2261196Cordillera de Talamancaclimate changebirdsspecies distribution modelMaxent |
| spellingShingle | Zhen Liu Luis Sandoval Lauren B. Sherman Andrew M. Wilson Vulnerability of elevation-restricted endemic birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) to climate change Neotropical Biodiversity Cordillera de Talamanca climate change birds species distribution model Maxent |
| title | Vulnerability of elevation-restricted endemic birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) to climate change |
| title_full | Vulnerability of elevation-restricted endemic birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) to climate change |
| title_fullStr | Vulnerability of elevation-restricted endemic birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) to climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Vulnerability of elevation-restricted endemic birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) to climate change |
| title_short | Vulnerability of elevation-restricted endemic birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) to climate change |
| title_sort | vulnerability of elevation restricted endemic birds of the cordillera de talamanca costa rica and panama to climate change |
| topic | Cordillera de Talamanca climate change birds species distribution model Maxent |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23766808.2023.2261196 |
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