Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function
<p>Recent Hadley cell expansion rate estimates vary substantially, as a multitude of methods and reanalysis datasets yield conflicting results. Among the many methods of estimating the Hadley cell width, the meridional-stream-function 500 <span class="inline-formula">hPa</sp...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/4/531/2023/wcd-4-531-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797797763081043968 |
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| author | D. Baldassare T. Reichler P. Plink-Björklund J. Slawson |
| author_facet | D. Baldassare T. Reichler P. Plink-Björklund J. Slawson |
| author_sort | D. Baldassare |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Recent Hadley cell expansion rate estimates vary substantially, as a multitude of methods and reanalysis datasets yield conflicting results. Among the many methods of estimating the Hadley cell width, the meridional-stream-function 500 <span class="inline-formula">hPa</span> zero crossing is the most widely used, as it is directly related to the poleward edge of the Hadley cell (HC). Other common metrics use atmospheric phenomena associated with the HC as a proxy, for instance the zonal-surface-wind zero crossing. As each of these metrics requires different reanalysis data, each with varying error, the level of data-driven uncertainty differs between each metric. While previous work has analyzed the statistical and dynamical relationships between metrics, to date no study has quantified and compared the uncertainty due to reanalysis data error in different HC metrics. In this study, we use ERA5 ensemble members, which include small perturbations in atmospheric variables based on the data error, to quantify the uncertainty associated with six commonly used HC metrics as well as the range of their trend estimates. In the Northern Hemisphere, the tropical expansion rate calculated by the stream function is roughly 0.05<span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span> per decade, while the Southern Hemisphere rate is 0.2<span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span> per decade over the period from 1979–2022. Of the six metrics, only the meridional stream function and precipitation minus evaporation have substantial uncertainties. The stream function errors are large due to uncertainty in the underlying meridional-wind data and the presence of large regions of near-neutral circulation at the poleward edge of the tropics. These errors have decreased in recent decades because of improvements in the assimilated observations. Despite these improvements, metrics which use well-observed and constrained quantities such as the zonal-surface-wind zero crossing have lower uncertainty, particularly in summer and fall in the Northern Hemisphere.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:53:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d2d64aa815d94371bf0756f6d5145131 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2698-4016 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T03:53:16Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-d2d64aa815d94371bf0756f6d51451312023-06-22T09:22:04ZengCopernicus PublicationsWeather and Climate Dynamics2698-40162023-06-01453154110.5194/wcd-4-531-2023Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream functionD. Baldassare0T. Reichler1P. Plink-Björklund2J. Slawson3Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USADepartment of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO 80401, USADepartment of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO 80401, USA<p>Recent Hadley cell expansion rate estimates vary substantially, as a multitude of methods and reanalysis datasets yield conflicting results. Among the many methods of estimating the Hadley cell width, the meridional-stream-function 500 <span class="inline-formula">hPa</span> zero crossing is the most widely used, as it is directly related to the poleward edge of the Hadley cell (HC). Other common metrics use atmospheric phenomena associated with the HC as a proxy, for instance the zonal-surface-wind zero crossing. As each of these metrics requires different reanalysis data, each with varying error, the level of data-driven uncertainty differs between each metric. While previous work has analyzed the statistical and dynamical relationships between metrics, to date no study has quantified and compared the uncertainty due to reanalysis data error in different HC metrics. In this study, we use ERA5 ensemble members, which include small perturbations in atmospheric variables based on the data error, to quantify the uncertainty associated with six commonly used HC metrics as well as the range of their trend estimates. In the Northern Hemisphere, the tropical expansion rate calculated by the stream function is roughly 0.05<span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span> per decade, while the Southern Hemisphere rate is 0.2<span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span> per decade over the period from 1979–2022. Of the six metrics, only the meridional stream function and precipitation minus evaporation have substantial uncertainties. The stream function errors are large due to uncertainty in the underlying meridional-wind data and the presence of large regions of near-neutral circulation at the poleward edge of the tropics. These errors have decreased in recent decades because of improvements in the assimilated observations. Despite these improvements, metrics which use well-observed and constrained quantities such as the zonal-surface-wind zero crossing have lower uncertainty, particularly in summer and fall in the Northern Hemisphere.</p>https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/4/531/2023/wcd-4-531-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | D. Baldassare T. Reichler P. Plink-Björklund J. Slawson Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function Weather and Climate Dynamics |
| title | Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function |
| title_full | Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function |
| title_fullStr | Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function |
| title_full_unstemmed | Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function |
| title_short | Large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function |
| title_sort | large uncertainty in observed estimates of tropical width from the meridional stream function |
| url | https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/4/531/2023/wcd-4-531-2023.pdf |
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