Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus
The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperatu...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064023 |
| _version_ | 1797747955394936832 |
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| author | Jana Sillmann Markus G Donat John C Fyfe Francis W Zwiers |
| author_facet | Jana Sillmann Markus G Donat John C Fyfe Francis W Zwiers |
| author_sort | Jana Sillmann |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes over the past four decades (1971–2010) in comparison to the recent 15 years (1996–2010). We consider the coldest night and warmest day in a year in the observational dataset HadEX2 and in the current generation of global climate models (CMIP5). In general, the observed trends fall within the simulated range of trends, with better consistency for the longer period. Spatial trend patterns differ for the warm and cold extremes, with the warm extremes showing continuous positive trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models. This regional inconsistency between models and observations might be a key to understanding the recent hiatus in global mean temperature warming. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d31203f4b13b4446ac41ba0e44ebf242 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:02Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-d31203f4b13b4446ac41ba0e44ebf2422023-08-09T14:46:56ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262014-01-019606402310.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064023Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatusJana Sillmann0Markus G Donat1John C Fyfe2Francis W Zwiers3Center for International Climate and Environmental Research—Oslo (CICERO), Pb. 1129 Blindern, NO-0318, Oslo, NorwayARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales , Sydney, NSW 2052, AustraliaCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, V8W 3V6, CanadaPacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, V8W 3R4, CanadaThe discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes over the past four decades (1971–2010) in comparison to the recent 15 years (1996–2010). We consider the coldest night and warmest day in a year in the observational dataset HadEX2 and in the current generation of global climate models (CMIP5). In general, the observed trends fall within the simulated range of trends, with better consistency for the longer period. Spatial trend patterns differ for the warm and cold extremes, with the warm extremes showing continuous positive trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models. This regional inconsistency between models and observations might be a key to understanding the recent hiatus in global mean temperature warming.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064023temperature extremesclimate changeclimate modelswarming hiatus |
| spellingShingle | Jana Sillmann Markus G Donat John C Fyfe Francis W Zwiers Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus Environmental Research Letters temperature extremes climate change climate models warming hiatus |
| title | Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus |
| title_full | Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus |
| title_fullStr | Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus |
| title_full_unstemmed | Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus |
| title_short | Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus |
| title_sort | observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus |
| topic | temperature extremes climate change climate models warming hiatus |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064023 |
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