Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?
While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2017-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d |
| _version_ | 1797748236566396928 |
|---|---|
| author | Natalie M Mahowald Daniel S Ward Scott C Doney Peter G Hess James T Randerson |
| author_facet | Natalie M Mahowald Daniel S Ward Scott C Doney Peter G Hess James T Randerson |
| author_sort | Natalie M Mahowald |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d31df3f61d684333861a8ed633b6e194 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:01Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-d31df3f61d684333861a8ed633b6e1942023-08-09T14:36:33ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-0112909401610.1088/1748-9326/aa836dAre the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?Natalie M Mahowald0Daniel S Ward1Scott C Doney2Peter G Hess3James T Randerson4Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future , Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences , Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States of AmericaMarine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution , Woods Hole, MA, United States of AmericaDepartment of Biological and Environmental Engineering , Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of AmericaDepartment of Earth System Science , University of California, Irvine, CA, United States of AmericaWhile carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa836dland useclimate changeagriculturedeforestation |
| spellingShingle | Natalie M Mahowald Daniel S Ward Scott C Doney Peter G Hess James T Randerson Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy? Environmental Research Letters land use climate change agriculture deforestation |
| title | Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy? |
| title_full | Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy? |
| title_fullStr | Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy? |
| title_short | Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy? |
| title_sort | are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy |
| topic | land use climate change agriculture deforestation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa836d |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nataliemmahowald aretheimpactsoflanduseonwarmingunderestimatedinclimatepolicy AT danielsward aretheimpactsoflanduseonwarmingunderestimatedinclimatepolicy AT scottcdoney aretheimpactsoflanduseonwarmingunderestimatedinclimatepolicy AT peterghess aretheimpactsoflanduseonwarmingunderestimatedinclimatepolicy AT jamestranderson aretheimpactsoflanduseonwarmingunderestimatedinclimatepolicy |