Effects of the Temporal Variability of Storm Surges on Coastal Flooding
Assessments of flood exposure and risk are usually conducted for individual events with a specific peak water level and hydrograph, without considering variations in the temporal evolution (duration and intensity) of storm surges. Here we investigate the influence of temporal variability of storm su...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2020-02-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2020.00098/full |
| _version_ | 1818334880289783808 |
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| author | Jorid Höffken Athanasios T. Vafeidis Leigh R. MacPherson Sönke Dangendorf Sönke Dangendorf |
| author_facet | Jorid Höffken Athanasios T. Vafeidis Leigh R. MacPherson Sönke Dangendorf Sönke Dangendorf |
| author_sort | Jorid Höffken |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Assessments of flood exposure and risk are usually conducted for individual events with a specific peak water level and hydrograph, without considering variations in the temporal evolution (duration and intensity) of storm surges. Here we investigate the influence of temporal variability of storm surge events on flood characteristics in coastal zones, namely flood extent and inundation depth, and assess the associated flood exposure in terms of affected properties for the case of the municipality of Eckernförde, Germany. We use a nested hydrodynamic model to simulate five physically plausible, stochastically simulated storm surge events, with peak water levels corresponding to a univariate return period of 200 years and varying intensities. In a second step, the events are also combined with high-end sea-level rise projections corresponding to the RCP 8.5 scenario to analyze if the influence of temporal variability changes with rising sea-levels. Results show differences exceeding 5% in flood extent when comparing storm surges with the highest and lowest intensities. The number of properties exposed differs by approximately 20%. Differences in mean and maximum inundation depths are approximately 5%, both with and without sea-level rise. However, deviations in flood extent increase by more than 20%, depending on the sea-level rise projection, whereas differences in the number of exposed properties decrease. Our findings indicate that the temporal variability of storm surges can have considerable influence on flood extent and exposure in the study area. Taking into account that flood extent increases with rising sea-levels, we recommend that uncertainty related to the temporal variability of storm surges is represented in future flood risk assessments to ensure efficient planning and to provide a more comprehensive assessment of exposed infrastructure and assets. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T14:14:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d362f5edd9c94607890ec65553def061 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T14:14:33Z |
| publishDate | 2020-02-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-d362f5edd9c94607890ec65553def0612022-12-21T23:42:22ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452020-02-01710.3389/fmars.2020.00098507699Effects of the Temporal Variability of Storm Surges on Coastal FloodingJorid Höffken0Athanasios T. Vafeidis1Leigh R. MacPherson2Sönke Dangendorf3Sönke Dangendorf4Institute of Geography, Christian-Albrecht University of Kiel, Kiel, GermanyInstitute of Geography, Christian-Albrecht University of Kiel, Kiel, GermanyResearch Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen, Siegen, GermanyResearch Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen, Siegen, GermanyDepartment for Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, United StatesAssessments of flood exposure and risk are usually conducted for individual events with a specific peak water level and hydrograph, without considering variations in the temporal evolution (duration and intensity) of storm surges. Here we investigate the influence of temporal variability of storm surge events on flood characteristics in coastal zones, namely flood extent and inundation depth, and assess the associated flood exposure in terms of affected properties for the case of the municipality of Eckernförde, Germany. We use a nested hydrodynamic model to simulate five physically plausible, stochastically simulated storm surge events, with peak water levels corresponding to a univariate return period of 200 years and varying intensities. In a second step, the events are also combined with high-end sea-level rise projections corresponding to the RCP 8.5 scenario to analyze if the influence of temporal variability changes with rising sea-levels. Results show differences exceeding 5% in flood extent when comparing storm surges with the highest and lowest intensities. The number of properties exposed differs by approximately 20%. Differences in mean and maximum inundation depths are approximately 5%, both with and without sea-level rise. However, deviations in flood extent increase by more than 20%, depending on the sea-level rise projection, whereas differences in the number of exposed properties decrease. Our findings indicate that the temporal variability of storm surges can have considerable influence on flood extent and exposure in the study area. Taking into account that flood extent increases with rising sea-levels, we recommend that uncertainty related to the temporal variability of storm surges is represented in future flood risk assessments to ensure efficient planning and to provide a more comprehensive assessment of exposed infrastructure and assets.https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2020.00098/fullstorm surgetemporal variabilitycoastal floodingextreme sea levelsEckernförde Bay |
| spellingShingle | Jorid Höffken Athanasios T. Vafeidis Leigh R. MacPherson Sönke Dangendorf Sönke Dangendorf Effects of the Temporal Variability of Storm Surges on Coastal Flooding Frontiers in Marine Science storm surge temporal variability coastal flooding extreme sea levels Eckernförde Bay |
| title | Effects of the Temporal Variability of Storm Surges on Coastal Flooding |
| title_full | Effects of the Temporal Variability of Storm Surges on Coastal Flooding |
| title_fullStr | Effects of the Temporal Variability of Storm Surges on Coastal Flooding |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of the Temporal Variability of Storm Surges on Coastal Flooding |
| title_short | Effects of the Temporal Variability of Storm Surges on Coastal Flooding |
| title_sort | effects of the temporal variability of storm surges on coastal flooding |
| topic | storm surge temporal variability coastal flooding extreme sea levels Eckernförde Bay |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2020.00098/full |
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