Estimating the Effect of Radiative Feedback Uncertainties on Climate Response to Changes in the Concentration of Stratospheric Aerosols
Using the two-box energy balance model (EBM), we explore the climate system response to radiative forcing generated by variations in the concentrations of stratospheric aerosols and estimate the effect of uncertainties in radiative feedbacks on changes in global mean surface temperature anomaly used...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/654 |
| _version_ | 1797564770456436736 |
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| author | Sergei Soldatenko |
| author_facet | Sergei Soldatenko |
| author_sort | Sergei Soldatenko |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Using the two-box energy balance model (EBM), we explore the climate system response to radiative forcing generated by variations in the concentrations of stratospheric aerosols and estimate the effect of uncertainties in radiative feedbacks on changes in global mean surface temperature anomaly used as an indicator of the response of the climate system to external radiative perturbations. Radiative forcing generated by stratospheric sulfate aerosols from the second-largest volcanic eruption in the 20th century, the Mount Pinatubo eruption in June 1991, was chosen for this research. The global mean surface temperature response to a specified change in radiative forcing is estimated as a convolution of the derived impulse response function corresponding to EBM with a function that describes the temporal change in radiative forcing. The influence of radiative feedback uncertainties on changes in the global mean surface temperature is estimated using several “versions” of the EBM. The parameters for different “versions” were identified by applying a specific procedure for calibrating the two-box EBM parameters using the results of climate change simulations conducted with coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Changes in the global mean surface temperature caused by stratospheric aerosol forcing are found to be highly sensitive not only to radiative feedbacks but also to climate system inertia defined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere–land–ocean mixed layer system, as well as to deep-ocean heat uptake. The results obtained have direct implications for a better understanding of how uncertainties in climate feedbacks, climate system inertia and deep-ocean heat uptake affect climate change modelling. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:02:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d3671600f7704eb8bfad6fdb47b2a185 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:02:37Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-d3671600f7704eb8bfad6fdb47b2a1852023-11-20T04:21:37ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332020-06-0111665410.3390/atmos11060654Estimating the Effect of Radiative Feedback Uncertainties on Climate Response to Changes in the Concentration of Stratospheric AerosolsSergei Soldatenko0St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation, Russian Academy of Sciences, No. 39, 14th Line, 199178 St. Petersburg, RussiaUsing the two-box energy balance model (EBM), we explore the climate system response to radiative forcing generated by variations in the concentrations of stratospheric aerosols and estimate the effect of uncertainties in radiative feedbacks on changes in global mean surface temperature anomaly used as an indicator of the response of the climate system to external radiative perturbations. Radiative forcing generated by stratospheric sulfate aerosols from the second-largest volcanic eruption in the 20th century, the Mount Pinatubo eruption in June 1991, was chosen for this research. The global mean surface temperature response to a specified change in radiative forcing is estimated as a convolution of the derived impulse response function corresponding to EBM with a function that describes the temporal change in radiative forcing. The influence of radiative feedback uncertainties on changes in the global mean surface temperature is estimated using several “versions” of the EBM. The parameters for different “versions” were identified by applying a specific procedure for calibrating the two-box EBM parameters using the results of climate change simulations conducted with coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Changes in the global mean surface temperature caused by stratospheric aerosol forcing are found to be highly sensitive not only to radiative feedbacks but also to climate system inertia defined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere–land–ocean mixed layer system, as well as to deep-ocean heat uptake. The results obtained have direct implications for a better understanding of how uncertainties in climate feedbacks, climate system inertia and deep-ocean heat uptake affect climate change modelling.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/654climate feedbacksstratospheric aerosolsatmospheric opticsclimate changeclimate sensitivityenergy balance model |
| spellingShingle | Sergei Soldatenko Estimating the Effect of Radiative Feedback Uncertainties on Climate Response to Changes in the Concentration of Stratospheric Aerosols Atmosphere climate feedbacks stratospheric aerosols atmospheric optics climate change climate sensitivity energy balance model |
| title | Estimating the Effect of Radiative Feedback Uncertainties on Climate Response to Changes in the Concentration of Stratospheric Aerosols |
| title_full | Estimating the Effect of Radiative Feedback Uncertainties on Climate Response to Changes in the Concentration of Stratospheric Aerosols |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the Effect of Radiative Feedback Uncertainties on Climate Response to Changes in the Concentration of Stratospheric Aerosols |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the Effect of Radiative Feedback Uncertainties on Climate Response to Changes in the Concentration of Stratospheric Aerosols |
| title_short | Estimating the Effect of Radiative Feedback Uncertainties on Climate Response to Changes in the Concentration of Stratospheric Aerosols |
| title_sort | estimating the effect of radiative feedback uncertainties on climate response to changes in the concentration of stratospheric aerosols |
| topic | climate feedbacks stratospheric aerosols atmospheric optics climate change climate sensitivity energy balance model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/654 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sergeisoldatenko estimatingtheeffectofradiativefeedbackuncertaintiesonclimateresponsetochangesintheconcentrationofstratosphericaerosols |