Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model
Arctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest that Arc...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 |
| _version_ | 1797747622077792256 |
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| author | Mirseid Akperov Wenxin Zhang Paul A Miller Igor I Mokhov Vladimir A Semenov Heidrun Matthes Benjamin Smith Annette Rinke |
| author_facet | Mirseid Akperov Wenxin Zhang Paul A Miller Igor I Mokhov Vladimir A Semenov Heidrun Matthes Benjamin Smith Annette Rinke |
| author_sort | Mirseid Akperov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Arctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest that Arctic cyclogenesis is affected by the Arctic amplification of global warming, for instance, a growing land-sea thermal contrast. We thus hypothesize that biogeophysical feedbacks (BF) over the land, here mainly referring to the albedo-induced warming in spring and evaporative cooling in summer, may have the potential to significantly change cyclone activity in the Arctic. Based on a regional Earth system model (RCA-GUESS) which couples a dynamic vegetation model and a regional atmospheric model and an algorithm of cyclone detection and tracking, this study assesses for the first time the impacts of BF on the characteristics of Arctic cyclones under three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our analysis focuses on the spring- and summer time periods, since previous studies showed BF are the most pronounced in these seasons. We find that BF induced by changes in surface heat fluxes lead to changes in land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric stability. This, in turn, noticeably changes the atmospheric baroclinicity and, thus, leads to a change of cyclone activity in the Arctic, in particular to the increase of cyclone frequency over the Arctic Ocean in spring. This study highlights the importance of accounting for BF in the prediction of Arctic cyclones and the role of circulation in the Arctic regional Earth system. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:54:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d37f04f4222145fd95bd81ae62476ead |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:54:07Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-d37f04f4222145fd95bd81ae62476ead2023-08-09T15:01:37ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116606407610.1088/1748-9326/ac0566Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system modelMirseid Akperov0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5802-6850Wenxin Zhang1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-563XPaul A Miller2Igor I Mokhov3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0033-8581Vladimir A Semenov4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7632-7921Heidrun Matthes5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9913-7696Benjamin Smith6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6987-5337Annette Rinke7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6685-9219A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics , RAS, 3 Pyzhevsky per., Moscow 119017, RussiaDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University , Sölvegatan 12, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden; Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen , Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, DenmarkDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University , Sölvegatan 12, SE-223 62 Lund, SwedenA.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics , RAS, 3 Pyzhevsky per., Moscow 119017, Russia; Lomonosov Moscow State University , Moscow, RussiaA.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics , RAS, 3 Pyzhevsky per., Moscow 119017, Russia; Institute of Geography , RAS, Moscow, RussiaAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research , Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University , Sölvegatan 12, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden; Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University , Richmond, New South Wales, AustraliaAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research , Potsdam, GermanyArctic cyclones, as a prevalent feature in the coupled dynamics of the Arctic climate system, have large impacts on the atmospheric transport of heat and moisture and deformation and drifting of sea ice. Previous studies based on historical and future simulations with climate models suggest that Arctic cyclogenesis is affected by the Arctic amplification of global warming, for instance, a growing land-sea thermal contrast. We thus hypothesize that biogeophysical feedbacks (BF) over the land, here mainly referring to the albedo-induced warming in spring and evaporative cooling in summer, may have the potential to significantly change cyclone activity in the Arctic. Based on a regional Earth system model (RCA-GUESS) which couples a dynamic vegetation model and a regional atmospheric model and an algorithm of cyclone detection and tracking, this study assesses for the first time the impacts of BF on the characteristics of Arctic cyclones under three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our analysis focuses on the spring- and summer time periods, since previous studies showed BF are the most pronounced in these seasons. We find that BF induced by changes in surface heat fluxes lead to changes in land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric stability. This, in turn, noticeably changes the atmospheric baroclinicity and, thus, leads to a change of cyclone activity in the Arctic, in particular to the increase of cyclone frequency over the Arctic Ocean in spring. This study highlights the importance of accounting for BF in the prediction of Arctic cyclones and the role of circulation in the Arctic regional Earth system.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566Arctic climate changeRCA-GUESSbiogeophysical feedbacksArctic cyclonesvegetation dynamics |
| spellingShingle | Mirseid Akperov Wenxin Zhang Paul A Miller Igor I Mokhov Vladimir A Semenov Heidrun Matthes Benjamin Smith Annette Rinke Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model Environmental Research Letters Arctic climate change RCA-GUESS biogeophysical feedbacks Arctic cyclones vegetation dynamics |
| title | Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
| title_full | Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
| title_fullStr | Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
| title_short | Responses of Arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional Earth system model |
| title_sort | responses of arctic cyclones to biogeophysical feedbacks under future warming scenarios in a regional earth system model |
| topic | Arctic climate change RCA-GUESS biogeophysical feedbacks Arctic cyclones vegetation dynamics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0566 |
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