Potential heat-risk avoidance from nationally determined emission reductions targets in the future
The increasing heat stress from the combined effect of changes such as temperature and humidity in the context of global change receives growing concerns. However, there is limited information for future changes in heat stress, as well as its potential socioeconomic impact, under the intended nation...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac66f4 |
| _version_ | 1827869456700801024 |
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| author | Fang Wang Biao Zheng Jintao Zhang Yuyu Zhou Mingrui Jia |
| author_facet | Fang Wang Biao Zheng Jintao Zhang Yuyu Zhou Mingrui Jia |
| author_sort | Fang Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The increasing heat stress from the combined effect of changes such as temperature and humidity in the context of global change receives growing concerns. However, there is limited information for future changes in heat stress, as well as its potential socioeconomic impact, under the intended nationally determined mitigation scenarios. This study established an efficient evaluation method to quantify the benefits from the potential heat stress reduction from a continued intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) mitigation effort. The future heat stress over global land, quantified by the wet bulb globe temperature, was investigated based on the temperature sensitivity approach and multi-model simulations from the latest generation global climate models. The INDC continuous-effort scenario and the delayed-effort scenario, as well as the target-control scenarios of 2 °C warming, were compared. We found that with the delayed mitigation efforts, the increase in frequency, duration, and cumulative intensity of extreme heat stress relative to the INDC continuous-effort scenario in the late 21st century could reach to 113%, 193%, and 212%, respectively. If more ambitious efforts above current INDC pledges were implemented to achieve the 2 °C global temperature goal, the corresponding avoided impact of heat stress frequency, duration, and cumulative intensity in the late 21st century was estimated to be 32%, 37%, and 40%, respectively. Future changes in heat stress in low latitudes, where most developing countries are located, are most sensitive to emission reduction. Our results highlighted the potential avoided heat stress-related impact of global warming from efforts towards climate change mitigation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d3e56ad10a9848c695eaa2dbf39d2d7c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:29Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-d3e56ad10a9848c695eaa2dbf39d2d7c2023-08-09T15:31:01ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117505500710.1088/1748-9326/ac66f4Potential heat-risk avoidance from nationally determined emission reductions targets in the futureFang Wang0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0695-3895Biao Zheng1Jintao Zhang2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4582-6266Yuyu Zhou3Mingrui Jia4Department of Climate and Environment Change, Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Climate and Environment Change, Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China; College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University , Shanghai 200438, People’s Republic of ChinaIowa State University , Ames, IA 50011, United States of AmericaDepartment of Climate and Environment Change, Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China; College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of ChinaThe increasing heat stress from the combined effect of changes such as temperature and humidity in the context of global change receives growing concerns. However, there is limited information for future changes in heat stress, as well as its potential socioeconomic impact, under the intended nationally determined mitigation scenarios. This study established an efficient evaluation method to quantify the benefits from the potential heat stress reduction from a continued intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) mitigation effort. The future heat stress over global land, quantified by the wet bulb globe temperature, was investigated based on the temperature sensitivity approach and multi-model simulations from the latest generation global climate models. The INDC continuous-effort scenario and the delayed-effort scenario, as well as the target-control scenarios of 2 °C warming, were compared. We found that with the delayed mitigation efforts, the increase in frequency, duration, and cumulative intensity of extreme heat stress relative to the INDC continuous-effort scenario in the late 21st century could reach to 113%, 193%, and 212%, respectively. If more ambitious efforts above current INDC pledges were implemented to achieve the 2 °C global temperature goal, the corresponding avoided impact of heat stress frequency, duration, and cumulative intensity in the late 21st century was estimated to be 32%, 37%, and 40%, respectively. Future changes in heat stress in low latitudes, where most developing countries are located, are most sensitive to emission reduction. Our results highlighted the potential avoided heat stress-related impact of global warming from efforts towards climate change mitigation.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac66f4intended nationally determined contributions (INDC)heat stresswet bulb globe temperatureexposureCMIP6 |
| spellingShingle | Fang Wang Biao Zheng Jintao Zhang Yuyu Zhou Mingrui Jia Potential heat-risk avoidance from nationally determined emission reductions targets in the future Environmental Research Letters intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) heat stress wet bulb globe temperature exposure CMIP6 |
| title | Potential heat-risk avoidance from nationally determined emission reductions targets in the future |
| title_full | Potential heat-risk avoidance from nationally determined emission reductions targets in the future |
| title_fullStr | Potential heat-risk avoidance from nationally determined emission reductions targets in the future |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential heat-risk avoidance from nationally determined emission reductions targets in the future |
| title_short | Potential heat-risk avoidance from nationally determined emission reductions targets in the future |
| title_sort | potential heat risk avoidance from nationally determined emission reductions targets in the future |
| topic | intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) heat stress wet bulb globe temperature exposure CMIP6 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac66f4 |
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