Drought and Human Mobility in Africa
Abstract Human mobility from droughts is multifaceted and depends on environmental, political, social, demographic and economic factors. Although droughts cannot be considered as the single trigger, they significantly influence people's decision to move. Yet, the ways in which droughts influenc...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003510 |
| _version_ | 1827397546142597120 |
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| author | S. Ceola J. Mård G. Di Baldassarre |
| author_facet | S. Ceola J. Mård G. Di Baldassarre |
| author_sort | S. Ceola |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Human mobility from droughts is multifaceted and depends on environmental, political, social, demographic and economic factors. Although droughts cannot be considered as the single trigger, they significantly influence people's decision to move. Yet, the ways in which droughts influence patterns of human settlements have remained poorly understood. Here we explore the relationships between drought occurrences and changes in the spatial distribution of human settlements across 50 African countries for the period 1992–2013. For each country, we extract annual drought occurrences from two indicators, the international disaster database EM‐DAT and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI‐12) records, and we evaluate human settlement patterns by considering urban population data and human distance to rivers, as derived from nighttime lights. We then compute human displacements as variations in human distribution between adjacent years, which are then associated with drought (or non‐drought) years. Our results show that drought occurrences across Africa are often associated with (other things being equal) human mobility toward rivers or cities. In particular, we found that human settlements tend to get closer to water bodies or urban areas during drought conditions, as compared to non‐drought periods, in 70%–81% of African countries. We interpret this tendency as a physical manifestation of drought adaptation, and discuss how this may result into increasing flood risk or overcrowding urban areas. As such, our results shed light on the interplay between human mobility and climate change, bolstering the analysis on the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought risks in a warming world. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T19:10:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d42fb907e1794a09938d9c7663ef56a0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T19:10:01Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-d42fb907e1794a09938d9c7663ef56a02023-12-27T18:22:40ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772023-12-011112n/an/a10.1029/2023EF003510Drought and Human Mobility in AfricaS. Ceola0J. Mård1G. Di Baldassarre2Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental, and Materials Engineering Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna Bologna ItalyCentre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS) Uppsala SwedenCentre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS) Uppsala SwedenAbstract Human mobility from droughts is multifaceted and depends on environmental, political, social, demographic and economic factors. Although droughts cannot be considered as the single trigger, they significantly influence people's decision to move. Yet, the ways in which droughts influence patterns of human settlements have remained poorly understood. Here we explore the relationships between drought occurrences and changes in the spatial distribution of human settlements across 50 African countries for the period 1992–2013. For each country, we extract annual drought occurrences from two indicators, the international disaster database EM‐DAT and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI‐12) records, and we evaluate human settlement patterns by considering urban population data and human distance to rivers, as derived from nighttime lights. We then compute human displacements as variations in human distribution between adjacent years, which are then associated with drought (or non‐drought) years. Our results show that drought occurrences across Africa are often associated with (other things being equal) human mobility toward rivers or cities. In particular, we found that human settlements tend to get closer to water bodies or urban areas during drought conditions, as compared to non‐drought periods, in 70%–81% of African countries. We interpret this tendency as a physical manifestation of drought adaptation, and discuss how this may result into increasing flood risk or overcrowding urban areas. As such, our results shed light on the interplay between human mobility and climate change, bolstering the analysis on the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought risks in a warming world.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003510climate change adaptationextreme eventshuman mobilityurbanization |
| spellingShingle | S. Ceola J. Mård G. Di Baldassarre Drought and Human Mobility in Africa Earth's Future climate change adaptation extreme events human mobility urbanization |
| title | Drought and Human Mobility in Africa |
| title_full | Drought and Human Mobility in Africa |
| title_fullStr | Drought and Human Mobility in Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Drought and Human Mobility in Africa |
| title_short | Drought and Human Mobility in Africa |
| title_sort | drought and human mobility in africa |
| topic | climate change adaptation extreme events human mobility urbanization |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003510 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sceola droughtandhumanmobilityinafrica AT jmard droughtandhumanmobilityinafrica AT gdibaldassarre droughtandhumanmobilityinafrica |