Dengue risk assessment using multicriteria decision analysis: A case study of Bhutan.
<h4>Background</h4>Dengue is the most rapidly spreading vector-borne disease globally, with a 30-fold increase in global incidence over the last 50 years. In Bhutan, dengue incidence has been on the rise since 2004, with numerous outbreaks reported across the country. The aim of this stu...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021-02-01
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| Series: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009021 |
| _version_ | 1819033906823823360 |
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| author | Tsheten Tsheten Archie C A Clements Darren J Gray Kinley Wangdi |
| author_facet | Tsheten Tsheten Archie C A Clements Darren J Gray Kinley Wangdi |
| author_sort | Tsheten Tsheten |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4>Dengue is the most rapidly spreading vector-borne disease globally, with a 30-fold increase in global incidence over the last 50 years. In Bhutan, dengue incidence has been on the rise since 2004, with numerous outbreaks reported across the country. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas that are vulnerable to dengue in Bhutan.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We conducted a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) using a weighted linear combination (WLC) to obtain a vulnerability map of dengue. Risk factors (criteria) were identified and assigned with membership values for vulnerability according to the available literature. Sensitivity analysis and validation of the model was conducted to improve the robustness and predictive ability of the map. Our study revealed marked differences in geographical vulnerability to dengue by location and season. Low-lying areas and those located along the southern border were consistently found to be at higher risk of dengue. The vulnerability extended to higher elevation areas including some areas in the Capital city Thimphu during the summer season. The higher risk was mostly associated with relatively high population density, agricultural and built-up landscapes and relatively good road connectivity.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Using MCDA, our study identified vulnerable areas in Bhutan during specific seasons when and where the transmission of dengue is most likely to occur. This study provides evidence for the National Vector-borne Disease Control programme to optimize the use of limited public health resources for surveillance and vector control, to mitigate the public health threat of dengue. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T07:25:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d4674e64c62044d6968bf8321846eee2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1935-2727 1935-2735 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T07:25:17Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-d4674e64c62044d6968bf8321846eee22022-12-21T19:11:42ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases1935-27271935-27352021-02-01152e000902110.1371/journal.pntd.0009021Dengue risk assessment using multicriteria decision analysis: A case study of Bhutan.Tsheten TshetenArchie C A ClementsDarren J GrayKinley Wangdi<h4>Background</h4>Dengue is the most rapidly spreading vector-borne disease globally, with a 30-fold increase in global incidence over the last 50 years. In Bhutan, dengue incidence has been on the rise since 2004, with numerous outbreaks reported across the country. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas that are vulnerable to dengue in Bhutan.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We conducted a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) using a weighted linear combination (WLC) to obtain a vulnerability map of dengue. Risk factors (criteria) were identified and assigned with membership values for vulnerability according to the available literature. Sensitivity analysis and validation of the model was conducted to improve the robustness and predictive ability of the map. Our study revealed marked differences in geographical vulnerability to dengue by location and season. Low-lying areas and those located along the southern border were consistently found to be at higher risk of dengue. The vulnerability extended to higher elevation areas including some areas in the Capital city Thimphu during the summer season. The higher risk was mostly associated with relatively high population density, agricultural and built-up landscapes and relatively good road connectivity.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Using MCDA, our study identified vulnerable areas in Bhutan during specific seasons when and where the transmission of dengue is most likely to occur. This study provides evidence for the National Vector-borne Disease Control programme to optimize the use of limited public health resources for surveillance and vector control, to mitigate the public health threat of dengue.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009021 |
| spellingShingle | Tsheten Tsheten Archie C A Clements Darren J Gray Kinley Wangdi Dengue risk assessment using multicriteria decision analysis: A case study of Bhutan. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| title | Dengue risk assessment using multicriteria decision analysis: A case study of Bhutan. |
| title_full | Dengue risk assessment using multicriteria decision analysis: A case study of Bhutan. |
| title_fullStr | Dengue risk assessment using multicriteria decision analysis: A case study of Bhutan. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dengue risk assessment using multicriteria decision analysis: A case study of Bhutan. |
| title_short | Dengue risk assessment using multicriteria decision analysis: A case study of Bhutan. |
| title_sort | dengue risk assessment using multicriteria decision analysis a case study of bhutan |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009021 |
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