Repeated judgment sampling: Boundaries
This paper investigates the boundaries of the recent result that eliciting more than one estimate from the same person and averaging these can lead to accuracy gains in judgment tasks. It first examines its generality, analysing whether the kind of question being asked has an effect on the size of p...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2011-06-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500001893/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1797701694950211584 |
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| author | Johannes Müller-Trede |
| author_facet | Johannes Müller-Trede |
| author_sort | Johannes Müller-Trede |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper investigates the boundaries of the recent result that eliciting more than one estimate from the same person and averaging these can lead to accuracy gains in judgment tasks. It first examines its generality, analysing whether the kind of question being asked has an effect on the size of potential gains. Experimental results show that the question type matters. Previous results reporting potential accuracy gains are reproduced for year-estimation questions, and extended to questions about percentage shares. On the other hand, no gains are found for general numerical questions. The second part of the paper tests repeated judgment sampling’s practical applicability by asking judges to provide a third and final answer on the basis of their first two estimates. In an experiment, the majority of judges do not consistently average their first two answers. As a result, they do not realise the potential accuracy gains from averaging. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T04:39:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d4b5ce40b2f8488cb83f3a2decc521ea |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T04:39:26Z |
| publishDate | 2011-06-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-d4b5ce40b2f8488cb83f3a2decc521ea2023-09-03T09:46:15ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752011-06-01628329410.1017/S1930297500001893Repeated judgment sampling: BoundariesJohannes Müller-Trede0Graduate Program of Economics, Finance and Management, Departament d’Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27, 08005, Barcelona, SpainThis paper investigates the boundaries of the recent result that eliciting more than one estimate from the same person and averaging these can lead to accuracy gains in judgment tasks. It first examines its generality, analysing whether the kind of question being asked has an effect on the size of potential gains. Experimental results show that the question type matters. Previous results reporting potential accuracy gains are reproduced for year-estimation questions, and extended to questions about percentage shares. On the other hand, no gains are found for general numerical questions. The second part of the paper tests repeated judgment sampling’s practical applicability by asking judges to provide a third and final answer on the basis of their first two estimates. In an experiment, the majority of judges do not consistently average their first two answers. As a result, they do not realise the potential accuracy gains from averaging.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500001893/type/journal_articlerepeated judgmentsjudgment accuracyaveraging |
| spellingShingle | Johannes Müller-Trede Repeated judgment sampling: Boundaries Judgment and Decision Making repeated judgments judgment accuracy averaging |
| title | Repeated judgment sampling: Boundaries |
| title_full | Repeated judgment sampling: Boundaries |
| title_fullStr | Repeated judgment sampling: Boundaries |
| title_full_unstemmed | Repeated judgment sampling: Boundaries |
| title_short | Repeated judgment sampling: Boundaries |
| title_sort | repeated judgment sampling boundaries |
| topic | repeated judgments judgment accuracy averaging |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500001893/type/journal_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT johannesmullertrede repeatedjudgmentsamplingboundaries |