A Probabilistic Model of Crop Insurance Purchase Decision

This study proposes a probabilistic model of the individual crop insurance purchase decision that explicitly recognizes that neither the producer nor the insurer knows the exact value of the actuarially fair premium (AFP) underlying the desired policy. The model is used to explore the impact of key...

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Main Authors: Octavio A. Ramirez, J. Scott Shonkwiler
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Western Agricultural Economics Association 2017-01-01
Series:Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Subjects:
Online Access:https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/252751
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author Octavio A. Ramirez
J. Scott Shonkwiler
author_facet Octavio A. Ramirez
J. Scott Shonkwiler
author_sort Octavio A. Ramirez
collection DOAJ
description This study proposes a probabilistic model of the individual crop insurance purchase decision that explicitly recognizes that neither the producer nor the insurer knows the exact value of the actuarially fair premium (AFP) underlying the desired policy. The model is used to explore the impact of key features of the insurer and producer AFP estimates on the probability that the producer will purchase insurance and other important indicators of program performance. The model is applied to assessing the merits of alternative premium estimation methods and to shed light on some major factors affecting the performance of the U.S. crop insurance program.
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spelling doaj.art-d4cc567dd8fe4a7c878335ce385238f72022-12-22T02:26:02ZengWestern Agricultural Economics AssociationJournal of Agricultural and Resource Economics1068-55022327-82852017-01-01421102610.22004/ag.econ.252751252751A Probabilistic Model of Crop Insurance Purchase DecisionOctavio A. RamirezJ. Scott ShonkwilerThis study proposes a probabilistic model of the individual crop insurance purchase decision that explicitly recognizes that neither the producer nor the insurer knows the exact value of the actuarially fair premium (AFP) underlying the desired policy. The model is used to explore the impact of key features of the insurer and producer AFP estimates on the probability that the producer will purchase insurance and other important indicators of program performance. The model is applied to assessing the merits of alternative premium estimation methods and to shed light on some major factors affecting the performance of the U.S. crop insurance program.https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/252751agricultural riskcomparative staticscrop insurance program performanceestimation of crop insurance premiumsinsurance decision under uncertainty
spellingShingle Octavio A. Ramirez
J. Scott Shonkwiler
A Probabilistic Model of Crop Insurance Purchase Decision
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
agricultural risk
comparative statics
crop insurance program performance
estimation of crop insurance premiums
insurance decision under uncertainty
title A Probabilistic Model of Crop Insurance Purchase Decision
title_full A Probabilistic Model of Crop Insurance Purchase Decision
title_fullStr A Probabilistic Model of Crop Insurance Purchase Decision
title_full_unstemmed A Probabilistic Model of Crop Insurance Purchase Decision
title_short A Probabilistic Model of Crop Insurance Purchase Decision
title_sort probabilistic model of crop insurance purchase decision
topic agricultural risk
comparative statics
crop insurance program performance
estimation of crop insurance premiums
insurance decision under uncertainty
url https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/252751
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