Urbanization Dynamics in Egypt: Factors, Trends, Perspectives
The article analyzes the specifics of urbanization dynamics in Egypt, which is noteworthy for a number of reasons. First, there was a shift from the logistic trend in the 1970s, and the share of urban population stopped growing. The UN data analysis shows that such a shift usually occurs against the...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Pluto Journals
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Arab Studies Quarterly |
| Online Access: | https://www.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.13169/arabstudquar.35.1.0020 |
| _version_ | 1797687366320652288 |
|---|---|
| author | Julia Zinkina Andrey Korotayev |
| author_facet | Julia Zinkina Andrey Korotayev |
| author_sort | Julia Zinkina |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The article analyzes the specifics of urbanization dynamics in Egypt, which is noteworthy for a number of reasons. First, there was a shift from the logistic trend in the 1970s, and the share of urban population stopped growing. The UN data analysis shows that such a shift usually occurs against the background of very serious economic difficulties (and other problems associated with them). However, the urban population proportion stopped growing in Egypt when the country was experiencing a period of exceedingly rapid economic growth. We find labor migration of unprecedented scale to be the main reason which engendered this seemingly paradoxical situation. We further proceed to analyze the UN forecast on the dynamics of the Egyptian urban population proportion up to 2050, which implies a return to the logistic trend and rapid growth of the urban population share, which is fraught with socio-political instability risks. However, we present data proving that the logistic urbanization trajectory is not inevitable for Egypt, and the destabilization risks connected with the rapid increase of urban population share are largely irrelevant to Egypt in the forecasted period. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T01:17:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d4e15fb86a274a219e88e58c3c23b809 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0271-3519 2043-6920 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T01:17:59Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | Pluto Journals |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Arab Studies Quarterly |
| spelling | doaj.art-d4e15fb86a274a219e88e58c3c23b8092023-09-13T10:25:56ZengPluto JournalsArab Studies Quarterly0271-35192043-69202013-01-01351203810.13169/arabstudquar.35.1.0020Urbanization Dynamics in Egypt: Factors, Trends, PerspectivesJulia ZinkinaAndrey KorotayevThe article analyzes the specifics of urbanization dynamics in Egypt, which is noteworthy for a number of reasons. First, there was a shift from the logistic trend in the 1970s, and the share of urban population stopped growing. The UN data analysis shows that such a shift usually occurs against the background of very serious economic difficulties (and other problems associated with them). However, the urban population proportion stopped growing in Egypt when the country was experiencing a period of exceedingly rapid economic growth. We find labor migration of unprecedented scale to be the main reason which engendered this seemingly paradoxical situation. We further proceed to analyze the UN forecast on the dynamics of the Egyptian urban population proportion up to 2050, which implies a return to the logistic trend and rapid growth of the urban population share, which is fraught with socio-political instability risks. However, we present data proving that the logistic urbanization trajectory is not inevitable for Egypt, and the destabilization risks connected with the rapid increase of urban population share are largely irrelevant to Egypt in the forecasted period.https://www.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.13169/arabstudquar.35.1.0020 |
| spellingShingle | Julia Zinkina Andrey Korotayev Urbanization Dynamics in Egypt: Factors, Trends, Perspectives Arab Studies Quarterly |
| title | Urbanization Dynamics in Egypt: Factors, Trends, Perspectives |
| title_full | Urbanization Dynamics in Egypt: Factors, Trends, Perspectives |
| title_fullStr | Urbanization Dynamics in Egypt: Factors, Trends, Perspectives |
| title_full_unstemmed | Urbanization Dynamics in Egypt: Factors, Trends, Perspectives |
| title_short | Urbanization Dynamics in Egypt: Factors, Trends, Perspectives |
| title_sort | urbanization dynamics in egypt factors trends perspectives |
| url | https://www.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.13169/arabstudquar.35.1.0020 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT juliazinkina urbanizationdynamicsinegyptfactorstrendsperspectives AT andreykorotayev urbanizationdynamicsinegyptfactorstrendsperspectives |