Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validation
BackgroundThe morbidity and mortality of young-onset colorectal cancer (YO-CRC) patients have been increasing in recent years. Moreover, YO-CRC patients with synchronous liver-only metastases (YO-CRCSLM) have various survival outcomes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to construct and valida...
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| Format: | Article |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1161742/full |
| _version_ | 1797844555519754240 |
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| author | Tao Li Tao Li Yahang Liang Yahang Liang Daqiang Wang Daqiang Wang Zhen Zhou Zhen Zhou Haoran Shi Haoran Shi Mingming Li Mingming Li Hualin Liao Hualin Liao Taiyuan Li Taiyuan Li Xiong Lei Xiong Lei |
| author_facet | Tao Li Tao Li Yahang Liang Yahang Liang Daqiang Wang Daqiang Wang Zhen Zhou Zhen Zhou Haoran Shi Haoran Shi Mingming Li Mingming Li Hualin Liao Hualin Liao Taiyuan Li Taiyuan Li Xiong Lei Xiong Lei |
| author_sort | Tao Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundThe morbidity and mortality of young-onset colorectal cancer (YO-CRC) patients have been increasing in recent years. Moreover, YO-CRC patients with synchronous liver-only metastases (YO-CRCSLM) have various survival outcomes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram for patients with YO-CRCSLM.MethodsThe YO-CRCSLM patients were rigorously screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database in January 2010 and December 2018 and then assigned to a training and validation cohort randomly (1488 and 639 patients, respectively). Moreover, the 122 YO-CRCSLM patients who were enrolled in The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University were served as a testing cohort. The variables were selected using the multivariable Cox model based on the training cohort and then developed a nomogram. The validation and testing cohort were used to validate the model’s predictive accuracy. The calibration plots were used to determine the Nomogram’s discriminative capabilities and precision, and the decision analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the Nomogram’s net benefit. Finally, the Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed for the stratified patients based on total nomogram scores classified by the X-tile software.ResultsThe Nomogram was constructed including ten variables: marital status, primary site, grade, metastatic lymph nodes ratio (LNR), T stage, N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), Surgery, and chemotherapy. The Nomogram performed admirably in the validation and testing group according to the calibration curves. The DCA analyses showed good clinical utility values. Low-risk patients (score<234) had significantly better survival outcomes than middle-risk (234–318) and high-risk (>318) patients (P < 0.001).ConclusionA nomogram predicting the survival outcomes for patients with YO-CRCSLM was developed. In addition to facilitating personalized survival prediction, this nomogram may assist in developing clinical treatment strategies for patients with YO-CRCSLM who are undergoing treatment. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:23:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d511de7fe565450daa58b7f83f8aa492 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T17:23:44Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
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| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj.art-d511de7fe565450daa58b7f83f8aa4922023-04-18T16:43:43ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2023-04-011310.3389/fonc.2023.11617421161742Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validationTao Li0Tao Li1Yahang Liang2Yahang Liang3Daqiang Wang4Daqiang Wang5Zhen Zhou6Zhen Zhou7Haoran Shi8Haoran Shi9Mingming Li10Mingming Li11Hualin Liao12Hualin Liao13Taiyuan Li14Taiyuan Li15Xiong Lei16Xiong Lei17Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaGastrointestinal Surgical Institute, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaGastrointestinal Surgical Institute, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaGastrointestinal Surgical Institute, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaGastrointestinal Surgical Institute, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaGastrointestinal Surgical Institute, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaGastrointestinal Surgical Institute, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaGastrointestinal Surgical Institute, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaGastrointestinal Surgical Institute, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaGastrointestinal Surgical Institute, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, ChinaBackgroundThe morbidity and mortality of young-onset colorectal cancer (YO-CRC) patients have been increasing in recent years. Moreover, YO-CRC patients with synchronous liver-only metastases (YO-CRCSLM) have various survival outcomes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram for patients with YO-CRCSLM.MethodsThe YO-CRCSLM patients were rigorously screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database in January 2010 and December 2018 and then assigned to a training and validation cohort randomly (1488 and 639 patients, respectively). Moreover, the 122 YO-CRCSLM patients who were enrolled in The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University were served as a testing cohort. The variables were selected using the multivariable Cox model based on the training cohort and then developed a nomogram. The validation and testing cohort were used to validate the model’s predictive accuracy. The calibration plots were used to determine the Nomogram’s discriminative capabilities and precision, and the decision analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the Nomogram’s net benefit. Finally, the Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed for the stratified patients based on total nomogram scores classified by the X-tile software.ResultsThe Nomogram was constructed including ten variables: marital status, primary site, grade, metastatic lymph nodes ratio (LNR), T stage, N stage, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), Surgery, and chemotherapy. The Nomogram performed admirably in the validation and testing group according to the calibration curves. The DCA analyses showed good clinical utility values. Low-risk patients (score<234) had significantly better survival outcomes than middle-risk (234–318) and high-risk (>318) patients (P < 0.001).ConclusionA nomogram predicting the survival outcomes for patients with YO-CRCSLM was developed. In addition to facilitating personalized survival prediction, this nomogram may assist in developing clinical treatment strategies for patients with YO-CRCSLM who are undergoing treatment.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1161742/fullsurvival modelYO-CRCSLMsurvivalnomogramSEER |
| spellingShingle | Tao Li Tao Li Yahang Liang Yahang Liang Daqiang Wang Daqiang Wang Zhen Zhou Zhen Zhou Haoran Shi Haoran Shi Mingming Li Mingming Li Hualin Liao Hualin Liao Taiyuan Li Taiyuan Li Xiong Lei Xiong Lei Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validation Frontiers in Oncology survival model YO-CRCSLM survival nomogram SEER |
| title | Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validation |
| title_full | Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validation |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validation |
| title_short | Development and validation of a clinical survival model for young-onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver-only metastases: a SEER population-based study and external validation |
| title_sort | development and validation of a clinical survival model for young onset colorectal cancer with synchronous liver only metastases a seer population based study and external validation |
| topic | survival model YO-CRCSLM survival nomogram SEER |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2023.1161742/full |
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